Member Info for JohnLewis79

16 runners this wk thats a record entry -- we'll be paying 4 places at this rate heh heh heh!

Outside chance of payment this week. Ytd payments rec'd $26.5m ($69.08/ av OP) for Jan oil sales and $22.4m ($65.32 av OP) for Feb oil sales. March payment awaiting... av OP $66.02.

Add lem 297.

Oil $76.44 (+10c). Asia mostly up Shanghai off just 8 with Trump / Kim 'meet' hogging the headlines. The Straits Times index rose on back of commodities and banks -hoping for a successful outcome to the talks especially economic aid & new investment in N.Korea a definite possibility. The Big 3 central Banks meet this week with rates & trade uppermost. Ftse is called c 20 up at start. Good morning all.

Snapdog 287 - JL 290 - bland 295 Hasiba 298 - postie 300 - sparky 302 - klassic 307 - bunks 314 - H 318 - maks888 322 - givethe 329 - Without 331 - ocelot 335 - whitehat 336 - Ran for 339.

Hi Lem...agree on the OP scenario v. vol but at $80 v $65-6 last couple of months our bottom line should increase commensurately.. which knocks on to fcf etc...All good.

Already slurped a couple...

Say u bght a share that u believed was worth 60 a share but was selling for 50 a share thus undervalued by 10. If you invested at 50 and the sp rose in year 1 to 60 a share then you would have made a 20% return. However if it didnt realise 60 in year 1 the return drops dramatically. If in year 2 it reaches 60 the return drops c.12% compounded annually. If it doesn't reach 60 in yr 3 the return frops to c.8%... and so on to year 5 when its zilch. This is just an example of realising the value problem. If it does not occur your comp returns diminish substantially. Thus the margin of safety which Graham said should be 25% min to smooth out duff years before reaching fair value. So under valued shares should give you a chance ( margin of safety) to reach intrinsic value and giving you an adequate return while you wait...for the sp to reach full fair value....

Well somebody better take us out before the stock hits 1000....trouble is no ones interested at 282 why would they higher up? Competing egos might get in the way of tripartite merger of Kurd o...lies which to me seems a sensible but most unlikely option for the three companies as i'm sure this would have been sorted if it had half a chance. I expect G to plough on under its own banner until the gas is conclusively arranged with a partner in tow. Meanwhile good fiscal management will see our fcf improving and a certain boost to our eps for '18 which is my main yardstick. Any uplift in the OP would be a bonus If we could average say $80 through the next 6 months allied with a production boost the bottom line would look a lot healthier but I'm not counting on that happening just yet. We have had a pretty startling re-rate this past 6 months and not before time but the 'fair' value or intrinsic value is hard to quantify. Simply put i) its buying G at 282 when the intrinsic value is say c.430, (52%) undervalued as a start. Or ii) the sum of all future earnings discounted to present value using an appropriate discount rate. I dont know this number. Trouble arises if G continues to sell below 430 and you don't make your expected 52% return in year one by year 5 your comp return would be a big fat zero. Nevertheless you have a good margin of safety buying G now and by year 5 you should comfortably exceed 430 as the mrkt price should increase to reflect the increase in per share earnings all being well of course! Certainly you have to believe that G has above average inherent economics and is not a 'treading water' stock, by that I mean the sp will rise to meet intrinsic value... if not above...even if G cannot adjust prices of its product for inflation. That hasn't held back BP or Shell these last 50 years. It's a question of time and timing for G to realise it's full potential. I think it will. I just don't know when. Morning all.

Couldn't quite manage to break even on the wk (-6) with the OG off 22 but trailing on a ytd view (+8%) v G (+161%) and on a 3 month view --- for the late-comers G is up a very healthy (96%). Gkp posted a 4% wks gain and is 89% + ytd. Oil on the week was off 22c but 15% up ytd. London sectors showed small losses but US stocks posted gains for the week on the Dow(+680) - S&P(+44) and the Nsdq(+92) another closing high as the G7 pre-meet tensions caused few ripples. A 2% weeks rise in Tokyo failed to post ytd gains still c.0.30% down. Ytds In Shanghai (-7%) and HK (+3.50%). Have a good wk/end all.

Might have spooked loose holders (CEO statement)..but I doubt it where a 1p profit is a success its immaterial to us longs. I shouldn't even consider mentioning day trading moves they are off my radar and not worth bothering with. Still its a dull day so chucked in my twopenny worth ahead of the wk/end which day traders rarely hold over positions. Last purchase showing a loss...when did it never? Whatever lths will reap the rewards assuming the bod don't go off the rails in the dash for growth.

Yesterday according to the ever reliable lse sell vol was 244.249 & buy vol was 244.245. Just 4 diff over 335 bargains! Jeez you couldn't make it up. Do you think the sp is right?

The dash for growth has scuppered many an over ambitious CEO's dreams (checkout Mfocus/HP). Talk of a £bn Co in 5 years looks extremely optimistic to me. For starters they aint gonna do it via the sales route. Aquisitions funded by debt and increasing the share capital via possible Rights issues will be the only route to jump a few leagues and will be a drag on the sp for a long time imo. To date the "slowly slowly" approach has worked well so why change a winning formula? Do we really need to be a £bn company by 2023 with all the added risk born by holders? I have my doubts.

Oil $77.24 (-24c). Asia down c.1% across the region as sellers were out in force after a sell off in tech shares on the Nsdq broke a 4 day winning streak. The Dow gained 95 helped by a 4% rise in Big Mac's stock. London was barely changed after a false start but both ends of the High St were on the front pages following news of HOF, the Oxford St end shutting 60% of their stores to save the business and the rumoured administration of discount store Poundworld at the East St end adding to the poor retail expierence, where many thousands of jobs are likely to go. Brexit 'meltdown' troubles and tarrifs are never far away the mrkt betting that compromise & fudge will negate the worst of the fall out. London called lower at open c.40 points as traders will be closing positions ahead of the wk/end. G still 4 lower on the wk. Morning all.

Its worth reading the recent comments from B.Dork re wanting Idea to become a £1bn valued Co. https://www.compelo.com/tech-firm-ideagen-new-ceo/Extract: That would suppose a share price of 500. Nothing wrong in being ambitious but ways away atm. Nsdq powers up to another record close. In London techs mixed Sage flat, Mfocus (-11) & t350 +.43%

Oil $75.72 after US inventories unexpectedly rose by 2m barrels last wk. Asian stocks climbing following the Dow crossing 25000 & the Nsdq to another record close the 3rd this wk. The 'fear index' has been consistently dropping of late now 11.64 (down 40%+ since April) as investors see clear waters ahead...how I'm not sure. London a quiet session all major indices gaining c.0.30% - 0.70%. Ftse called 30 better at open. G off 11 this week (+21 last week) so a bit of blue would be nice. Morning all.

Mid day and only 1 trade registered my joint acc for 9999 gone missing. Probably in the bloody cloud....ffs!

Interim res out...looking much better.

Idea +27% -- Mf -47% -- Sage -16%.

Nsdq continued its record run boosted by the FAANG shares and strong gains seen in Asia's big 5 (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, TS and Samsung) all up in recent weeks. Apple now nearing the world's first trillion-dollar company as its mrkt cap passed $950m yesterday following unveiling of new products at its annual conference. Apple's and other tech stocks sp's have boosted the MSCI tech index (a basket of IT shares) to a record high. Tech shares rose in Europe to a level not seen since the dot.com boom in 2001...not in London where they remain in the doldrums dragged lower by poor performers Mfocus and Sage.