Member Info for JohnLaw

Nice one LSE Admin.

Do Something!

Clearly there cannot be three people in this chatroom who can spell definitely correctly.

Not on TSX website yet. Anyone found it?

And Alnylam's market cap is $7.5 billion.....

Simon Thomson 31.10.16 .."Shares in Aim-traded aircraft leasing company Avation (AVAP:168p) took off at the end of last week after the board received an unsolicited approach to buy its wholly owned portfolio of ATR72 turboprop aircraft. The company owns 24 of these ATR72 planes, of which two are subject to finance leases, and the expression of interest relates to the 22 planes owned outright, which are funded by debt facilities. ..... According to analyst John Cummins at house broker WH Ireland, the current fleet value of these ATR72 planes is $385m (£315m) post depreciation based on an original acquisition cost of $440m. He notes that "assuming the debt against these aircraft is paid back over a 25-year period, and on average just under 80 per cent of the purchase price is funded through debt, this would imply a conservative net asset value (NAV) for these 22 aircraft of around $85m, or 118p a share." This means that the 16 other planes in Avation's portfolio - five Fokker 100s, nine Airbus A321s and A320s, and the two ATR72s subject to finance leases - have a net asset value of $88.6m, or 124p a share. That's worth noting because executive chairman Jeff Chatfield says that any sale will have to be priced at a premium to book value, and understandably so. Rival Avolon was acquired at close to 1.6 times book value earlier this year by Bohai Leasing, a Chinese public company listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Subsequent to that deal completing, Avolon has since purchased a portfolio of aircraft at a 20 per cent premium to book value. The point being that, with Avation's shares trading 30 per cent below book value, there is obvious potential for significant shareholder value to be created through the sale of the company's ATR72 portfolio at a premium to book value, and then recycling this capital into new aircraft purchases. True, there is no guarantee a deal will be done, but with Avation's shares priced on only six times likely EPS of 27.5p in the 12 months to the end of June 2017, offering a 1.8 per cent prospective dividend yield and rated well below book value, investment upside from any disposal is in the price for free. So, having recommended buying Avation's shares at 147p at the time of the full-year results ('In the ascent', 12 Sep 2016), I feel that my fair value estimate of 220p is looking conservative and I have raised it to a target range between 225p and 240p. At the upper end the shares would be rated on less than nine times earnings, and 10 per cent below the end of June 2017 NAV estimates of 266p a share, excluding any bid premium on a sale of the ATR portfolio. Strong buy"

Aim-traded GLI Finance (GLIF:30p), a speciality financecompany that invests in peer-to-peer and small- and medium-sized enterprise (SME) lending platforms in the UK, Europe and the US, has made some important announcements and ones worth further investigation. Firstly, following a strategic review implemented by new chief executive Andy Whelan, the company is reorganising its operational structure and buying out the minority interests in both Sancus Gibraltar, an offshore alternative secured lending business, and BMS Finance, a senior lending business focused on SMEs. GLI Finance is paying £23.5m consideration to buy the outstanding 84.71 per cent of the equity in Sancus Gibraltar by issuing £13.5m of new shares at 31.1p each to the vendors and by issuing a new £10m unsecured five-year bond at a coupon rate of 7 per cent per year. The company already owns 62.5 per cent of the equity of BMS Finance and is paying £5.1m in total to take 100 per cent control of which £3.45m of this sum will be settled by issuing new shares at 31.1p each. It makes strategic sense to do so as the funding for the BMS loan portfolio is derived partly from its own balance sheet, partly from GLI Finance and through each of the British Business Bank and the Ireland Strategic Investment Fund (ISIF) under matched funding agreements. The ISIF mandate is a recent win for BMS and will allow the business to expand its operations in Ireland. In addition, GLI Finance holds £16m worth of 10-year interest-bearing loan notes issued by BMS which carry a coupon rate of 7 per cent to support BMS's growing loan book. The plan is to consolidate all the Sancus and BMS sub groups under one unified operating subsidiary in order to better position the company to expand its lending operations. Also, as part of the reorganisation, GLI Finance will make an inter-company transfer of its 84 per cent equity shareholding and £5m of preference shares held in Platform Black to the newly rebranded Sancus BMS. Platform Black is an innovative online trading platform and lending business whose activities are complementary to those of both Sancus and BMS. Mr Whelan will become chief executive of the enlarged Sancus BMS business and forecasts that the unit will deliver pre-tax profits of £2.5m in the current year, rising to £4m in 2017 when loan books are fully deployed, the businesses are fully integrated and increasing levels of commercial, operating and financial savings are realised.

Strategically sensible The restructuring not only improves the potential for the Sancus BMS in terms of generating free cash flow to service future dividend payments to GLI Finance's own shareholders, but importantly this free cash flow will be paid directly to the company. Currently, GLI Finance has 230m shares in issue and will be issuing 54.5m new shares as consideration for the two acquisitions including 6.6m shares to itself in exchange for the 15.29 per cent stake in Sancus Gibraltar it already owns. GLI Finance will also own £1.5m of the bonds being issued as part of the Sancus Gibraltar acquisition. This means about £1.2m of £4m of forecast pre-tax profit of BMS Sancus next year will be required to service the cash cost of the 2.5p a share annual dividend on the 47.9m new consideration shares being issued to the vendors of Sancus Gibraltar and BMS (after stripping out the 6.6m shares GLI Finance will own and which will be held in Treasury) and a further £595,000 is needed for the interest payments on £8.5m of the five-year bonds. This will leave a net £2.2m of profit before tax for the company to add to the annual dividend income of £2m it earns on the 25.3m shares held in Aim-traded investment firm GLI Alternative Finance (GLAF), and the substantial cash flow generated from its own loan book. To put this into perspective, the average annual interest rate charged on £56.2m-worth of loans GLI Finance has made to and through its lending platforms, an investment that accounts for 38 per cent of its £147m investment portfolio, is around 8 per cent. Or put it another way, the buyout of BMS and Sancus Gibraltar have significantly improved the security of the 2.5p a share annual dividend. In addition, the new bonds being issued to the vendors of Sancus Gibraltar will be listed on the Cayman Islands Stock Exchange and will also be tradeable on the platform of UK Bond Network, one of GLI Finance's platform investments. The company has the ability to further 'tap' this bond issue to fund further growth and that's what it's doing by issuing £4m of new bonds with the same coupon rate and term to eligible shareholders. If you are interested in participating in the £4m bond issue then you can register your interest at ukbondnetwork.com/GLIFinance. These 'tap' funds will be used to pay down part of a £14.8m outstanding syndicated loan which GLI Finance has and which carries an interest rate of 8.75 per cent, so reducing the company’s cost of capital further. Please note that although the above transactions don't require shareholder approval, GLI Finance's board has convened an EGM on Monday, 6 June to seek shareholder approval for the acquisitions which are scheduled to complete on Thursday, 30 June. I would recommend voting in favour.

Impact on net asset value At the end of December 2015, GLI Finance had a net asset value per share of 42.7p and the impact of the two transactions will be to reduce adjusted net asset value by 1.7p. However, the additional direct cashflow generated for GLI Finance means the cash cost of the dividend is far better aligned with the cash generation of the business, so it’s a price worth paying especially as it enhances the company's growth potential. The bottom line is that with borrowings now under control and GLI Finance on a path to recovery, then the shares offer decent recovery prospects on a 27 per cent discount to adjusted book value post the aforementioned acquisitions and underpinned by a dividend yield of 8.3 per cent. I last rated the shares a buy a couple of months ago at 32.5p ('High yielding recovery buy', 30 March 2016) and have no reason to change that positive stance. On a bid-offer spread of 29.25p to 30p, I rate the shares a buy and have an initial target price of 40.75p. Buy.

8p

All that matters is the number of new shares and the total cash received. Other things being equal, the value of the company changes only by the new cash received (what other change is there?) and that is simply divided by the total number of shares in issue afterwards. Small cap shares, especially on AIM, tend to fall to the offer price as that is the best estimate of value in a very uncertain world. In the grown up world, it is presumed that the value of a company can be calculated independently of a discounted rights issue, that the market knows best an prices the company correctly before a rights announcement and so the dilution of an offer below market price is calculated by the method I set out. As SGI is rather less mature I can see this falling below the theoretical ex rights value of 17.25p. I do not hold and am not buying at this price.

MCap yesterday 47.12m shares x 3725.p = £17.552m add 130m new shares and £13m cash gives 177.12m shares worth £30.552m or 17.25 each. How?

ST concludes: "In fact, rated on a cash adjusted PE ratio of almost 20 for the current financial year, I believe that Tristel’s shares are fully priced based on current trading trends. I am not the only one thinking this way as Equity Development has trimmed back its target price this morning from 140p to 125p, reflecting a more conservative sales trajectory, and brokerage finnCap believes fair value is nearer 110p. In the circumstances, I would recommend crystallising the thumping 100 per cent plus paper profit on your holdings. Take profits"

Todays RNS reconfirms Sept 1 guidance which said "the Board now considers that the results for the year ending 31 December 2015 will be materially below previous guidance". It also says :" trading continues to be challenging," Yet up 31% What could happen when they report good news......... ?

Shares in Lloyd's insurer Lancashire Holdings (LRE) fell sharply on Monday after reports that two executives, Peter Scales and John Lynch, had left the company's Lloyd's managing agent, Cathedral Capital. Trading so far this year has remained a challenge, with a benign claims environment putting downward pressure on premiums. Overcapacity is expected to continue, and gross premiums written in the third quarter were down by more than a fifth, bringing a contraction in the first nine months of the year of nearly a third. Much of this reflects the fact that a number of multi-year deals written in the property and energy segments in 2014 are not yet due for renewal. Without these 'non-annual deals' gross premiums written were down a more bearable 10 per cent. The good news is that with an excess of capital, the group has continued to reward shareholders with special dividend payments, the latest of 61p a share due for payment on 18 December. IC VIEW: Lloyd's underwriting is a people business, and when key managers leave they tend to take business with them. We tipped Lancashire Holdings as a potential takeover target in a sector that has seen considerable consolidation following successful bids for rivals Amlin, Brit and Catlin. However, at 599p, Lancashire shares have fallen sharply from an earlier peak of 758p, and we downgrade our earlier advice (Buy, 557p 15 January 2015), although given the attractive dividend, the shares are worth holding on to. Hold.

are we saying nothing

Is that how it works? Staff just get to download their own version of enterprise security software from a public download site? A quick look at 2 of the android downloadable apps shows > 50,000 downloads and negative comments from what look like people trying to make personal use of an inappropriate app. Just another example of the ****e in this "report" that destroys its credibility (if a company with 1-10 employees operating from a drop box address ever had any to start with.) I expect there is some dirt here but who doesn't have some (VW, BAe, Siemens, etc etc)

LinkedIn shows less than 10 employees. Contact address for Qcm is 330 Madison ave 6th floor. Google that address. It's a very crowded floor. QCM "report" itself is itself a scam IMVHO.

I'm buying

And the profits warning does not look so bad. Got some in this morning