Member Info for johnfitz

CRH is moving its main listing to the LSE from the ISEQ. 1098 = £10.98, so don't get too excited! The previous figures here are in pounds too not pence (or maybe Euro? as I haven't been following this board).

There is no future in AIB for current shareholders for a very long time. The share price could easily fall below 10c in the near future. It is being moved off the main stock exchange tomorrow. As banktech mentioned, your interpretation of NAMA isn't accurate. AIB actually owes the state rather than the other way around. Most importantly, current shareholders will own around 4% of AIB next month, with the government owning the rest. It will be effectively nationalised and is currently run as if it is in administration by PWC. Only gamblers are trading ALBK at the moment.

Yes, they are re-listed on the lesser exchange and you'll be able to trade normally there. Baronwuffit, there is no similarity between AIB and BOI at the moment. They are miles apart. The government has absolutely no responsibility to the shareholders of AIB.

I fully agree. ALBK is being delisted from the main exchange next Tuesday. It will be 98% owned by the government in a couple of weeks. There is no future here for a long time. As you say, BKIR is likely to do well for those willing to risk at current low levels. Government majority ownership seems unlikely and a major chunk of the necessary new capital (2.9 billion previously and 740 million now) has already been successfully raised. There is no comparison whatsoever between these two banks.

It's very rare for a share to be so clearly a terrible investment, but ALBK is very much it. It's important to know for current investors. There will be share dilution to the extent that 1.2 billion shares will become around 30 billion. There is no chance of share price recovery here.

There is no reason why ALBK would move back to the level that the government injected money at. Investors should be very careful with this share. It's a very much strong-sell at the moment and will dive again when transferred to the lower level stock exchange

What are you talking about? This is a very clear strong sell because of the dilution. Some investments are grey areas, but ALBK is clearly a no-go. Who wants to own 2% of a debt-ridden company? OMLOYALIST, the 50c price is no longer relevant at all. Not happening now. The conversion price is between 33c - 37c now.

Because of the huge dilution with existing shareholders owning probably 1-2% of the entire company and delisting from the main exchanges, I cannot see any upside to ALBK in the near future. It's important for existing shareholders to be aware of this reality. AIB is a disaster. Any brokers with a Buy recommendation clearly don't know the details of what has been happening recently.

Here you go. All of the key information is in here from Dec 23rd. The 30 billion share number is a reasonable assumption based on what is in here: http://www.aib.ie/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=PressOffice/AIB_Press_Releas/aib_po_d_press_releases-0_08&cid=1292928789869&poSection=AR&poSubSection=paDA&position=notfirst&rank=top&month=12&year=2010

The official position in relation to AIB has been made very concrete and public since last week. There will be approximately 30 billion shares by February, delisted from the ISEQ and LSE and traded on the ESM. 50c per share is an old valuation, which wasn't applied in the end and is now irrelevant.

I am heavily in BKIR and hold no ALBK, but Katoey is absolutely right about AIB. It is going to be at least 95% government-owned and possibly 99.9%. It's important to be very careful with this bank. FG and Labour could easily nationalise the last bit as it would make selling it to a foreign buyer for a lower price a lot simpler. There is clearly money to be made recently though, but I wonder how many buyers intend to hold long term and how many are day-trading the uptrend.

The first reason is that more and more economists and journalists are citing residential mortgage default as the next major issue in Ireland. IPM has far more residential mortgages than BOI or AIB. In fact, this was the key element of its business. The second reason is that Irish sovereign default/bond yields has escalated over recent days to a point where speculators have been taking advantage of the lack of knowledge/fear element. I don't foresee this changing in any way until the budget is passed next month.