RE: Dividend26 May 2024 07:09
Jonathan Leake
Sat 25 May 2024 at 8:00 pm BST
The 'UK continental shelf is finished' should Labour deliver on their promises
The 'UK continental shelf is finished' should Labour deliver on their promises - Igors Aleksejevs/iStockphoto
The looming early election threatens the end of the North Sea oil industry, according to experts, with Labour’s threat to extend the Government’s windfall levy set to hasten the sector’s decline.
Analysts said a likely victory for Sir Keir Starmer would prompt operators to give up on British waters, meaning some of Britain’s biggest oil and gas reserves may never be recovered.
“If Labour deliver on their promises, the UK continental shelf is finished,” said Ashley Kelty, research director at Panmure Gordon, a leading investment bank.
The future of the North Sea oil industry was thrown into doubt in 2022 when the Government imposed a windfall levy on the profits from oil and gas production that took total tax to an eye-watering 75pc.
Labour has pledged to add another 3pc, along with banning new drilling and, perhaps most damaging of all, stripping offshore companies of the tax breaks they get when investing in new fields. The plans were confirmed by shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves at a meeting last week.
Many operators are already moving investments overseas, including Serica Energy, one of the top 10 UK producing oil and gas companies. It operates 11 fields producing the equivalent of 46,000 barrels of oil a day.
David Latin, Serica’s chairman, said: “Government policy for the UK upstream sector has been erratic for decades but it’s become even more arbitrary and short term. That’s forced us to focus more on finding investment opportunities overseas instead of the UK in order to be resilient against future unpredictable shifts in UK government policy.
“Analysis suggests that if Labour’s rumoured tax plans are implemented, investment in the UK oil and gas sector will be reduced by £20bn over the next 10 years, which would result in UK production being halved compared to what it would be otherwise.
“That lost production will just be imported. The result will be less UK jobs and tax revenues and higher global emissions.”
Another offshore operator, Kistos, said it had “walked away” from two recent offshore investment opportunities because of uncertainty over the next government’s plans.
Kistos has assets in Norway and the Netherlands as well as UK waters, and executive chairman Andrew Austin said it was now looking overseas for future investment.
He said: “We are not going to invest in UK waters under the current level of fiscal uncertainty. I have already walked away from two investment opportunities.”
If a Labour government were to carry out its pledge to ban new drilling, then the oil and gas in Cambo field, Britain’s biggest unlicensed resource, is likely to never be recovered. The controversial Cambo field has a potential yield of 200