CB @ Semicast Research8 Feb 2024 12:10
Seeing Machines has published its latest quarterly #KPIs covering Oct. to Dec. and CY23. For CY23, production totaled 815K vehicles (CY22:457K) and total cars on road has increased to over 1.5 million. Production in the quarter was 208K. 2023 is now in the rear-view mirror (RVM), but 2024 is all about the #RVM. Research at CES confirmed the Magna International #occupant #monitoring #mirror would reach start-of-production (SoP) at the end of January, so SoP has begun. Magna is so confident of the product that it has a next generation design coming (I'll comment more after Magna has).
2024 closes the door on 1MP NFOV #DMS and opens the door to 5MP WFOV DMS and #OMS sited in the mirror. The RVM is all about Magna and Gentex Corporation, so the race is now between the two to win awards. The assumption is the Dec. 21 contract award for Seeing Machines is for the RVM in the Volkswagen Group #MQBEvo platform (including #Golf Mk8.5), and the Dec. 22 contract is the VW ID. #EV platform. It follows Magna can get the mirror from design award to SoP in 24 months, and maybe even in about 12. With timescales for #GSR compliance now incredibly tight, that advantage will prove extremely significant.
The slow ramp-up of DMS across all suppliers reflects the challenges of integrating the optical path and vision processor into a vehicle interior. The RVM overcomes all of these problems, and the VW volumes look set to be substantial. The May KPIs will include 2 months of production of the Magna mirror, and the August KPIs the full 3 months, meaning the release of those results will likely get a lot of folks to pay close attention.
Research at CES also suggests some suppliers have doubts that Euro NCAP - For Safer Cars, Vans & Trucks #DSM compliance is even possible from the RVM. Magna told me that it is, and irrefutable proof will be the first VW models with the occupant monitoring mirror going through #NCAP testing in the coming months. The Magna RVM has already caused a number of #OEMs to completely rethink their DMS/OMS plans, and if it scores the full 2 points with NCAP, expect multiple design awards on the basis of the evidence.
GSR compliance also applies to vans, trucks, buses, and coaches. Also in the release today is a comment that Seeing Machines is: “looking forward to our official, customer-facing #Guardian Generation 3 launch at GEOTAB Connect.” It follows that #fleet news is coming related to that event next week, with the official launch of Gen3. Again, as new trucks fitted with Gen3 are scored by NCAP, the results will become a self-reinforcing trend.
Seeing Machines has declared a path to profitability, and industry developments in the next 3 months look likely to decide that.