Member Info for joetunheimr

You can fin a list of investors on Financial Times with the following link:

https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=FLYB:LSE

I think this is up until 2nd January so who knows what has happened then. If the large investors sold out on Friday they would have lost loads, especially Hosking who had a lot of shares at 30p+ I imagine. Around 60% of the shares were traded on Friday so it is hard to tell what the structure looks like now.
What strikes me is that why the institutional investors did not sell done more since the sale of Flybe was announced, did their sources tell them that Flybe was worth more than the current share price? With any luck they will vote against this 1pps deal.

Furthermore, this 1pps deal seems to come as a big shock. On Thursday night Sky reported the deal as being worth roughly £20m. They have usually been very accurate in the past and have consulted expert analysts. How could they have got it so wrong as well?

Interesting point Pianista, It may well be the case that Tinkler is doing this to ensure that the deal goes through. Its interesting to see how hosking Partners, T Rowe and Standard Life etc. will vote in all of this.

Sorry Taverham, the previous post was replying to Pokerchips.

Yes Taverham, I agree with your statement. As you say, it is a great shame they could not have created the effective model but instead Flybe is now in this mess.

At least now with Tinkler involved it may provide more entertainment as the Stobart Board's scrap takes on a new level.

Yes one day's movement is all we have to go on at them moment.It will inevitably fluctuate but the markets has instantly reacted positively to Stobart's part in this.

Give me strength...the current £2.2m is far below Connect Airway's value whatever way you put it. Do you not understand my point?

From the most recent Flybe results presentation I didn't find the current CEO the most inspiring.I just don't get why they had to resort to sudden fire sales instead of anticipating this problem long before it occurred. Make no mistake about it, I'm delighted that now at least some of the Flybe employees are safe, as Taverham rightly mentions below, hopefully the Board will at least obtain a better price so everyone at least can be happy.

In terms of your remark on valuation, given that Stobart is the only UK listed company amongst the 3 bidding parties, it is a logical way of valuing Connect Airways. You'll actually find it certainly is the norm to value companies using their market cap and percentage of shares

As we are aware, Stobart will received 30% of the shares of the new joint venture, Connect Airways. In response to that news the Stobart share price rose 7.2% today. As the Stobart market cap has increased from £532m yesterday to £570m today, this is a rise of £38m. The market has therefore valued a 30% stake in Connect Airways at £38m. This therefore means that Connect Airways can be seen as being valued at £38m/30% = £127m.

Flybe's Board are recommending selling a company which the market has valued at £127m for £2.2m.

Flybe's problems are short term with immediate cash flow being an issue. To simply throw in the towel and flog the company for less than 2% of its value of £127m is ridiculous. Surely fire sales of its HQ to Exeter Airport or another party as well as further sale and leasebacks of planes could raise at the very minimum £20m for immediate cash flow needs. Surely even a CVA would be better than this low offer?

Flybe has a huge amount of stakeholders to call on for help, Cardiff airport, Exeter airport and many, many more. The Board can surely do better to use Flybe's power and leverage to raise further money to help the company out. There is good chance that some of the jobs at Exeter airport will be lost on this takeover anyway, as reported by the newspaper Devon Live. This takeover by no means guarantees all the employee's jobs.

If Flybe can get through this dire period of Winter then there could be a strong Summer ahead to strengthen the balance sheet for next winter. The BOD only started selling assets a few months ago when the crisis was already taking place. How could they not have foreseen this cash flow shortage happening earlier? They already know that Winter is tough and so they had large wiggle room with the net assets of the company being more than £80m to begin selling assets earlier.

Ultimately are people seriously to believe the Board's advice that the best they can get for a company worth £127m is £2.2m? Is this the same board than not one year ago advised turning down a far higher offer from Stobart? Utter madness.

06/07/2018: 'This is bursting to up, next rns will shoot this up. Its time to buy at this level as to get in early.' You posted this on IMM.

You also were encouraging people to buy Imm shares back in July 2018 before the share price took another tumble of 25% to today's value. However, like you I also want the share price to rise tomorrow.

Very petty. Did I at any point say there would be no bidders? Must I remind you that I am also a holder and have been for the past year. It seems that anyone who expresses an opinion against the opinion that the share price is going to be above £1 is shot down. Very childish behaviour.

Will they not have to surrender them like with the BMI purchase?

My goodness posting a share price prediction below £1 a share?! That's bound to get people accusing you of being a shorter.

Very true, oil price decline will be very useful more in the long term especially Flybe's routes that compete with trains! In regards to IAG, will the Heathrow slots be of any use to them if competition regulations will require them to release them?

For 2018/19 H2 96.9% has been hedged at $606 per tonne. For H1 2019/20 85% has been hedged at $718 per tonne.

I'm not denying that there won't be a rise tomorrow. However, the very nature of hedging is that Flybe are locked into paying price they are hedged at. They've hedged oil at $606 per tonne and that is what they have to pay for it regardless of whether oil is $5billion per tonne or $1 per tonne. Therefore the change in £ and oil prices will not really have an impact on the loss that is forecast for this half.

Flybe has already hedged the vast majority of its £ and oil prices. Therefore any gains or losses in £ from Brexit will be offset by a decline in its hedging instrument. The loss is largely due to remain the same.

Before I get bashed for being a de ramper, I am also holding and am obviously hoping for the highest possible price!

Those are the net assets as at 30 September 2018. Given that Flybe are expecting a loss in the £25mish region for the year it is safe to say that Flybe's net assets will be around £30m lower than £118m by 31 March 2019. This will probably be factored in to any offer.

In order for Stobart to be a serious contender they would have to first secure funding for the acquisition. As at 28/02/2018 they only had £43 million in cash. That's even less than Flybe have and we all know how quickly that cash can erode.