Member Info for Joeoh33

John, can’t argue with that 580% and hopefully more to come.
It’s the Davy TP accuracy that I am dubious over, were they saying €7.50 when the sp was €2.50 etc?
How good is their track record beyond just picking a number and the share price getting there at some stage, i.E. how often has the TP been achieved in the time frame they have suggested?

GLA

I wonder if anyone with Davy access and 10 mins to spare could have a stab at comparing Davy BOI TP’s and outcomes over the last day 3 years?

If you keep saying some you might eventually be right….stopped clock etc.

GLA

AIB have been out of favour since they **** in the nest over that “special dividend “, “overcapitalised” and “stuffed full of money” to return to shareholders BS from a couple of years ago.

From my day to day experience they are a much better bank to actually deal with then BOI, but that as they say, buttered no parsnips!

GLA

Ah Ronan, could this day get any crazier……

John,

From RTE reporting of the committee meeting:

“60% of Bank of Ireland's mortgage book is on a fixed rate, 10% is on a variable rate and the remaining 30% use a tracker rate.”

So, the bank is only holding off on 10% off the book!

GLA

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/irish-banks-add-700m-in-value-as-investors-welcome-ecb-rate-rises-41977590.html

John Ihie in the above article gives his view as AIB gaining €333M & BOI €325M per 1% uplift……..doctors differ etc.

GLA

John -
Exactly my thinking.
If years invested in BOI has taught me anything it’s that BOI will take prudence to the limit!
What prompted my musings is the TP of €10……it’s actually not hard to make a case for it given the interest rate environment, flies in the ointment would be change of government, global inflation/ recession, increased NPL’s etc.
Also bear in mind that if inflation is say 10% then your stock has to increase in value by at least that margin each just to stay at the same relative price.

GLA

A bit of fantasy bank share forecasting:

BOI clears €1.5B for 2023
Euro PE for banks is 7.5
Valuation of €11.25B
So gives a share price of 11.25/1.075 = €10.47

GLA

-0.5 to 2.5, a 300 basis point uplift would give an additional €1.3B….nice!

GLA

What’s the chances of the ECB growing a pair and giving us a 0.75% lift this week? A 0.5% rise is baked in at this stage……

GLA

Given the Inflation figures just out, surely the ECB will go for another 50 point rise…….good news for this dog!

Down 5%……..hard to know whether to laugh or cry!

Usual BOI conservative results…..
If extrapolated for the full year gives:
Eps of €0.78
P/e of 7.3
Higher interest rates on the way….
GLA

BOI closed 88 branches last October……..however, as with any company AIB has to listen to its majority shareholder

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/1007/1252432-boi-closures-nationally/

GLA

These daily swings in Irish banks are getting ludicrous, why is AIB up 9% today? A bank that is still over 60% state owned! Have they struck oil? Ludicrous stuff!

GLA

So still no BKIR dividend in my Goodbodys account, rang them this morning and seemly it takes 10 working days to reach my account!!!

Talk about a dinosaur, whatever AIB paid for them!

GLA

Still no flipping sign of anything from Goodbodys …..bad form

GLA

Not in my Goodbodys A/C either!

Was hoping to buy a fish supper with it tonight……,

GLA

God be with the days when a few percentage moves would be cause for headlines!

Shares these days are far too valued on the news cycle……I must be getting old!

GLA

Why the big drop…have I missed something?

GLA