Member Info for JoeNinety

Is it not simply that by accepting the offer you have entered into a contract with Ganfeng to sell them your shares if the deal goes through (i.e. if the 75% target acceptance is reached). As you have agreed to this arrangement, you cannot now be allowed to deal in the shares as that would be a breach of contract and would greatly complicate the process. Neither Gangfeng nor BCN would know where they were. Presumably you'll get the money if and when the 75% is reached. If it isn't reached, your shares will be released back to you.
I could be wrong about this though.

Great advice. If only he'd added a couple of one-liners about how to achieve rule number one. About half of my investments don't.

Bought at the start of the year as what seemed like a dead cert recovery share, and added to during the the euphoria of the expected surge as we 'came out of' Covid, I was so confident of the prospects that I didn't even consider profit taking at over £4 when it was my biggest individual holding and biggest profit.
After paying it not much attention, six months later it is my biggest loss. My pedestrian FTSE trackers, even though rashly bought on a high, are putting it to shame with slow if unsteady progress.
I don't think I'll cut my losses on this one as I still think that there is a bigger upside potential than downside risk, but it is a bit weird, as there seem to be plenty of cruise offers on the website and I wouldn't call them hyper expensive compared with a cottage in England these days. I might have to add to their bottom line by booking one myself.

When people realise how much UK holidays will cost this year, and how crowded the tourist destinations may be given the millions of holidaymakers diverted from Spain, France, Portugal, Italy etc the cruises should be very appealing. No stressful traffic or finding, then competing for, the best eateries. It is all on tap.

There could be other options. The Guardian reports that Madeira is dead keen to get UK vaccine passported tourists
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/29/madeira-lets-in-tourists-who-can-show-covid-vaccine-passport). Other islands (Azores, Balearics) might adopt a similar policy. I suppose the problem is getting back, but you do at least get several days of quarantine.

What about the USA - they'll be vaccinated well ahead of the pack. Quite a long crossing though, but also quite a long quarantine coming back.

I suppose it depends on whether the blanket ban on overseas travel will be continued or whether selected destinations will be allowed by reason of comprehensive vaccination, small population with strict passporting for outsiders etc. It may also depend on emerging data on how transmitting vaccinated people are. People must be working pretty hard to get better data on this. Unfortunately, it also depends on the characteristics of new variants, which can appear at any time. There is likely to be some uncertainty until everyone, at least in Europe, is vaccinated.

However, as long as the situation persists where holidaymakers are jammed into UK destinations I cannot help but think that the cruises, even local ones, will offer a niche that will find a ready market.

... I thought that might happen. This share is certainly a roller coaster but it is, as they say, an ill wind that blows nobody any good ... Now's your chance fjgooner.

I bought some more on Friday so I hope he's right. I'm averaging £3 now. Long-term there isn't too much danger but the summer holiday recess seems to be dragging on.

Paul. Patience is something I have and I am not expecting to invest in Metro Bank to make a sudden killing. But I would like to be confident that I am patiently waiting for inevitable (even if slow) viability and health rather than inexorable insovency. This former could come from having confidence in the management team, but I don't know anything about them. Better would be to have an idea of what they are doing to bring the bank into profit and for it to be simple enough to make sense to me - I am not a banker. Or, they might not need to do anything, it might be out of their hands, but then they need a convincing case that changing circumstances will passively bring them into profit. This is the sort of thing that I would like to understand.

Basically, as far as i can see, if a bank is to be worth, say, £1 per share then there has to be a reasonable expectation that it will sometime (soon) pay a dividend of about 3-5p a share (more if inflation or interest rates go up) and that its share price will be reasonably stable or slowly appreciating. So that is what I am trying to decide. For £2 a share, double these figures.

Cud. Thank you for your first response. I says what the bank needs to do. So now I can investigate what the management are actually doing, if I can find this information anywhere. Your second response is more about the share price and its possible manipulation and seems to concern guessing what others are guessing. Though a lot of share dealing appears to be based in just this, I do not do it well. In fact I do not even understand the vocabulary required to discuss it.

I just want to judge what the bank is really worth long-term irrespective of how the investing herd responds in the meantime.

... for this bank to make a profit?
Is it just a question of footfall (coming out of lockdown and subsequent commercial recovery) or is fundamental change required?
Is its fate linked with the health of the high street itself? It seems reasonable to suppose that it is, and the high street looks to be in inexorable decline, not helped at all by Covid.

Steady now, slownsteady.

The Chief Exec needs an editor. The RNS comes across as 'we're making it up as we go along'. And a couple of 'it is worth noting that' is a couple too many. It is written like I'd write it and, believe me, you wouldn't want me as CEO.

... does anyone know the potential Graphite reserves that Alba might control. We have 250,000 t in Amitsoq itself. Do we have potential further reserves in Amitsoq or elsewhere (e.g. Kalaaq, if we still have a licence there)? How large might they be?

Does Level 2 help if you just buy what you think is a good share from time to time and then sit of it for ages before deciding that it might no longer be a good share because it is so high it looks overvalued, or is just a duffer, and bailing out?
i.e. is it more for hardened traders than pedestrian 'Joes' like me?

As a matter of interest, where does 'only 2 MMs left at 0.37p' come from?

I'm with you there Jeremiah. A lot of my income, and most of the proceeds from a recent house sale, I've given away to help the (grown up) kids. I'm not even in any hurry to change the 12-year old car and plasma TV, they still work, and I'm not planning any more house moves.
It does make me wonder why I am here as I'm not temperamentally suited to gambling. However, 0.25% on the cash ISA seems just a little too frugal, and I'm finding that the world of equities has a strange fascination - which could easily turn sour if it ends up costing too much.
So I'm following your advice. I'm in AIM but not to a potentially tragic degree.

@Jeremiah
Pretty good advice. Hope you get back in the green one day soon. I can't give you a magic formula I'm afraid.

Why will this put a rocket under the share price if it didn't massively increase Alba's SP when it took over the operation if 2017-18 for a measly £1M or so? There was a sharp rise in 2017 but it soon fell back (though the gold price was lower then).
The problem with assays is that the deposit is very inhomogeneous (nuggetty). Small drilling samples from deep in unquarried lodes might not be representative, unless there are lots of them, and bulk samples are from previously quarried areas, where from historical records we already know the overall concentrations likely to be found by extending the works. How much extra information does a bulk sample from old waste materials or from chipping out more of the extant seams add?
Drilling along a seam for 100m or so (if this is even possible) might help, but even this will not give a huge sample.
Ultimately, it will not be easy to have any certainty about what will be found in the newly mapped lodes before we start mining them. The best guess is likely to be roughly what we already know but it could be lower ... or higher.
It seems to me that the size of the mineable volume and the ease of access to it are far more important than the extra assay information in moving this mine along.

I don't know whether anyone answered this, I haven't read all the posts, but there seems to be a lot of ways of pricing lithium depending on its form, region and type of contract. A whole organisation seems to be dedicated to standardising the data.

The various standard forms are set out in this methodology/catalogue:
https://www.fastmarkets.com/Media/Files/PRA/FMV2/pdfs/methodology/Price-specifications/fm-mb-lithium.pdf
The spot values of some of them (MB-LI-0036, MB-LI-0029, MB-LI-0040, MB-LI-0033 in the catalogue) are given every Friday here:
https://www.fastmarkets.com/commodities/industrial-minerals/lithium-price-spotlight
It also gives price trends over the last three years.
The price of at least one form of lithium hydroxide (MB-LI-0033 in the catalogue) is also reported here:
https://www.lme.com/Metals/Minor-metals/Lithium-prices#tabIndex=0

So there is no single answer, but the trends in the middle document are illuminating, showing that we are just coming out of historically low price levels.

Well, I decided to stick my toe in the water and it worked. Although I lost a ha'penny a share by dithering for a minute or two I'm up on the day - only by the cost of a round but most of my recent mining purchases are down so a bit of green is a relief. Perhaps not enough to count as a luck charm but enough to make me wish I'd bought a few more ... though a bit of 'DYOR' might be an idea first.

This was so hilarious I'll probably buy some of these tomorrow. Should I falter, or should the price head to untoward heights, good luck with your investments.

@elir. Thanks for these links. Your take on things is a very interesting and thorough piece of work.
You've outdone my efforts so far tenfold. Strangely, perhaps, I was starting with Horses Hill from the revenue angle, to get an idea of the meaningful short-term revenue or sale value that we might earn to support other operations and reduce the need for cash raising from the shareholders. However, as you point out somewhere, placings should not be too diluting henceforth at the present capitalisation.
It surprises me that Greenland is worth less than Wales. Presumably it is largely down to the lower income from royalties. However, is Amitsoq the only Greenland site? This (https://eng.geus.dk/media/13312/go_32.pdf ) mentions another Alba resource at Kalaaq, between Amitsoq and Sissarissoq with a lot of future potential. Is this a thing of the past, or just on the back burner and so not added to your valuation?