Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Paul has done a number of interviews very recently easyp. He was quite clear that the current programme has only been slowed by a small number of weeks.....
Dont put your house on the strength of an interview, but you might find them as confirmation enough ...... or not.
I know im positive.
"Xtracts primary asset is now considered to be Manica"
Manica might have been the reason that I jumped back in...... but can we really say Bushranger is still not the current primary asset and therefore supported by income from other assets such as Manica?
I know that the last updated presentation only a couple of months ago placed Bushranger front and centre.
Come on Colin... lets clear this up at the earliest opportunity.
Hi LW,
The supply of copper as described by the various commentators and experts is a hard restriction as far as I can see. There doesn't seem to be any change to the narrative of +5years for significant new supplies to come on line..... not sure how much flexibility the scrap copper can add to this....perhaps someone cant point us to a chart.
Th demand is obviously the softer element but the longer it takes for an increase in price to spur new investment..... then surely this just means the copper spike will be higher when demand finally hardens.
Personally can't see demand staying soft forever... but people have to decide if they agree with this.
On LSE and other platforms it is simply an algorithm they have developed to try an gauge the buy/sell balance of a trade from the traded price based upon what the MMs state their positions are..... and it is proved time and again that the algos simply can't handle the wide variance in possible conditions at any given time and therefore get it wrong very often ..... no games methinks.... just an over reliance by us PIs on the reported trade position.
I weened myself of Astrology when I was a teenager but im finding the LSE computer prediction habit harder to shake
There could be a bow-wave of information in the very near term if the March presentation can be believed:
1. Results of the Preseparation study at Bushranger
2. Publishing of NPV figures for Bushranger including this.
3. Permit application for further exploration (Manica or Bushranger).
4. Operational production figures for Manica (quarterly reporting clearly showing ongoing value to Xtr)
5. Plans/Flowsheet for expanded production at Manica to process transition and sulphate material.
6. News of additional oxide targets at Manica.
7. Operational news from Kakuyu in Zambia ( report suggests mining contractor engaged and agreement completed with Kabwe).
8. Results of testing at Kakuyu (by Jubilee).
9. Drilling/ exploration plan/permit at Kakuyu for the targets identified.
I'm sure there are even more possibilities for news..... but you are correct that without anything coming out the shareprice will dip and that is frustrating.
I thought Colin claimed we were in commercial production already, and therefore we were moving to a new reporting period.
It wasn't stated like that in the RNS in April, but he definitely said that going forward it would be possible to report our earnings from Manica as intended as the commissioning one-off expenses were now mostly accounted for.......
It was in an interview instead of RNS so I suppose it could be hyperbole ....
For my mind the idea about identifying a sale price at the moment is impossible. If the economic evaluation of the resource shows that it needs too high a POC then the true value of BR is zero...... while if (with this new pretreatment step) the all in cost to produce is reduced down to say $3.5/lb and the POC over the upcoming years exceeds and stays above $4.5/lb...... then the NPV could be well over a billion dollars.......
What a wide target to aim for..... so until we get this economic model its a mugs game.
My message is sounding like a broken record (although I haven't posted in a while)..... when are we due to get this economic model???
I had thought the investment decision would have been made by now.
Im not necessarily complaining as it is giving me an extended period to invest more, but I like to have an idea on the latest claimed timescales. What has anyone heard?
iky, for future reference.
The consolidation "should" keep its market cap at the time of consolidation.
i.e. if you hold £100 of shares - 1000 shares at 10p per share and they are consolidated at 100:1, you should end up with 10 shares at £10/share....
but as has been stated already, the market rarely sees consolidation as being for a positive reason and the share price then often falls.... so you might have avoided that further dip.....
saying that, its a bit of cause and effect. People selling up for the same reason as you on this news will elicit a drop anyway.... irrespective of whether the drop in Market Cap is warranted.
Interview is on its way.... so no heads down.... but surely there is a point missed here....
The production (might) be much higher now than these Quarter results indicate. Would expect/hope that ramping up meant that the average for this Qtr can only be used as indicative.
what Colin actually said in an interview was that if we were still here (with Bushranger) by then (end of 2022) that he (quite frankly) wouldn't have done his job right.
I'm not kicking the missed timescales.... although they present a massive target for kicking.... but I dont see any point in trying to suggest he was telling us anything other than we were looking for a quick sale in 2022.
Hi LW..... can work it out easily on the basis of say an 8% rate.... but the answer isnt going to tell us anything. Particularly as the plan would be to process the higher grade ore in the early years to pay down the original investment.... so cashflow and revenue against OPEX will vary wildly over those 25 years....
It has to be viewed as part of an NPV calculation to be any use to us.
But fun fact Cost of 1billion .... not paid back at all over 25 years at an 8% rate is 6.8billion...... ouch
The proposal in the RNS and the podcast made sense to me. Frustrating that this has pushed out again and that there isn't a definitive timeframe given for the extended work (It could have been couched in terms of months imo).
Contrary to some comments ,I don't think this announcement can be used to say either way if the project is/isn't/was/wasn't economic. If there is a flowsheeting opportunity to reduce CAPEX and OPEX by halving the amount of ore that goes through the main plant then only an idiot wouldn't consider it.....
Say 20% better NPV might be another 2, 3, 4 p on the eventual shareprice.
I would be good to know how long it will be to deliver the study now though.
LW,
When do you think it's been suggested the mine life is reduced from 25 years to 9?
The 7 to 9 years is referring to the targeted higher grade deposit and we would like to think that the study will show the CAPEX paid off well before this is exhausted, so the remaining years could be at a lower grade but would on a marginal OPEX only basis and so would likely remain very profitable...... more so with the high copper prices being slated for at least a decade.
So that narrative hasn't changed.... its just the POC that will return an attractive NPV that needs to be bottomed out.
Roll on the mining study.... cant come soon enough in my opinion