Member Info for Joeman1

For my mind the idea about identifying a sale price at the moment is impossible. If the economic evaluation of the resource shows that it needs too high a POC then the true value of BR is zero...... while if (with this new pretreatment step) the all in cost to produce is reduced down to say $3.5/lb and the POC over the upcoming years exceeds and stays above $4.5/lb...... then the NPV could be well over a billion dollars.......

What a wide target to aim for..... so until we get this economic model its a mugs game.

My message is sounding like a broken record (although I haven't posted in a while)..... when are we due to get this economic model???

I had thought the investment decision would have been made by now.

Im not necessarily complaining as it is giving me an extended period to invest more, but I like to have an idea on the latest claimed timescales. What has anyone heard?

Long Covid

iky, for future reference.

The consolidation "should" keep its market cap at the time of consolidation.
i.e. if you hold £100 of shares - 1000 shares at 10p per share and they are consolidated at 100:1, you should end up with 10 shares at £10/share....

but as has been stated already, the market rarely sees consolidation as being for a positive reason and the share price then often falls.... so you might have avoided that further dip.....

saying that, its a bit of cause and effect. People selling up for the same reason as you on this news will elicit a drop anyway.... irrespective of whether the drop in Market Cap is warranted.

Interview is on its way.... so no heads down.... but surely there is a point missed here....
The production (might) be much higher now than these Quarter results indicate. Would expect/hope that ramping up meant that the average for this Qtr can only be used as indicative.

what Colin actually said in an interview was that if we were still here (with Bushranger) by then (end of 2022) that he (quite frankly) wouldn't have done his job right.

I'm not kicking the missed timescales.... although they present a massive target for kicking.... but I dont see any point in trying to suggest he was telling us anything other than we were looking for a quick sale in 2022.

Yes..... Q2 and Q3 haven't been fully milked yet.....

ive only just uncrossed my fingers hoping for a Q1 explosion.......

If they wait until the last day of the month and then announce another "extension" it will be pretty bad form imo.

wow.... we are back around to AGM time in 3 months again..... surprising how fast the time can fly even when navel gazing

Hi LW..... can work it out easily on the basis of say an 8% rate.... but the answer isnt going to tell us anything. Particularly as the plan would be to process the higher grade ore in the early years to pay down the original investment.... so cashflow and revenue against OPEX will vary wildly over those 25 years....

It has to be viewed as part of an NPV calculation to be any use to us.
But fun fact Cost of 1billion .... not paid back at all over 25 years at an 8% rate is 6.8billion...... ouch

The proposal in the RNS and the podcast made sense to me. Frustrating that this has pushed out again and that there isn't a definitive timeframe given for the extended work (It could have been couched in terms of months imo).

Contrary to some comments ,I don't think this announcement can be used to say either way if the project is/isn't/was/wasn't economic. If there is a flowsheeting opportunity to reduce CAPEX and OPEX by halving the amount of ore that goes through the main plant then only an idiot wouldn't consider it.....
Say 20% better NPV might be another 2, 3, 4 p on the eventual shareprice.

I would be good to know how long it will be to deliver the study now though.

LW,
When do you think it's been suggested the mine life is reduced from 25 years to 9?

The 7 to 9 years is referring to the targeted higher grade deposit and we would like to think that the study will show the CAPEX paid off well before this is exhausted, so the remaining years could be at a lower grade but would on a marginal OPEX only basis and so would likely remain very profitable...... more so with the high copper prices being slated for at least a decade.

So that narrative hasn't changed.... its just the POC that will return an attractive NPV that needs to be bottomed out.

Roll on the mining study.... cant come soon enough in my opinion

The only thing I would comment Andy is that he described the study just before christmas as "Recently commissioned".

Now there must be time savings made by using the same consultants to prepare this as they used to prepare the first model on the original JORC as all that information stays in..... but is 3 months enough time to refresh the original JORC with all that new drilling and assay information? Im going to maintain some hope that it is delivered by the end of Q1 but I can understand why you might think Q2 is more likely.

GLA

I'd prefer "has been issued" ..... a bit fed up with "imminent".....
Try holding your breath and you "imminently" turn blue.....
Next week we are into February 2023

Wow....Manica first drilled over 40 years ago. Thankfully we are the ones about to get benefit from it

Absolutely Gordie....
What's funny is Manica header has been updated to show the new plant, but the photo gallery still shows the plant in bits just delivered to site. Real opportunity missed to promote this story and highlight the improving cash position of XTR.

Kalengwa is still listed as a major project and no update on Eureka or any of the other bigger projects... And Bushranger being pointed to April 2020 project presentation isnt good enough considering that all the work has gone in since then.

If they are going to operate a number of smaller scale existing mines then these could do with their own subfolder, updated on an annual basis as a minimum.

The cost of contracting a company to do this, to keep the page up to date will be relatively inexpensive.

Yes.... a producing plant more than 10 years in the making..... at least it is MMP and XTR that finally benefit from this in the end... now the plant is up and running the opportunity is there to exploit what is available within the permit..... instead of just talking about it.

NtM...... it not being fanfared in the manner you describe might just mean that Colin doesn't expect the need to raise funds will happen ..... ever again..... which would be good news in itself.

What medium term Market Cap do we think we will get here if the drilling is good?

Just to clarify..... I picked example numbers to illustrate my point below..... before anyone asks for my workings out...... there aren't any