Member Info for jnc0108

Likewise. It’s funny when a stock drops so much you have the stages of panic, fear, and then you just accept you are down so much and then getting back some of the loses seems a lot more palatable. A few months ago if you said at 70 you’d be feeling more comfortable you’d have laughed. So much can change, the market in the short term is a voting machine. We need to see management execute. The biggest risk here I feel is actually now Alsa, if that business declines we are in trouble.

JG68, as retail investors we are at a huge disadvantage when it comes to investing compared to the big boys. The biggest skill we need is patience. Look how far this has dropped in a short space of time, it can easily turn the other way on the slightest bit of news or a good update. I don’t think there is a genuine cause for concern, some short term challenges and this sell off has been spiralled due to peak fear and clearly there is also some funds selling down. We need to have 5 year horizons on “investments” many expect multi baggers in a few months. That is called luck. Let’s see if this range holds, we need all the big sellers to clear before we can move upward. It really can go anywhere in the short term. If the macro declines significantly all shares will get hit. So many stocks are being punished right now.

I’ve noticed a common theme with this stock that it gains in the morning and returns all of it and sells off hard in the afternoon. Let’s see if today is different. All of this daily watching is irrelevant in the long term, the main thing is the business hits the reduced forecast and doesn’t slip again. If that was to occur this would be a disaster.

I was in 888 with an average at 86p or so, it hit 51 and I panic sold. A few weeks later it’s at 130. Shows how quickly this market can move. Peak fear has set in here. The ftse250 is massively oversold now on many companies and will yield great returns if you have a long term mindset for a lot of these companies. I feel relatively safe here despite the ridiculous drop. This is an infrastructure business and considered fairly essential by most of its audience. Once the fare increases kick in, cost savings happening I hope we can move through.

No1plasterer. Out of interest when did you buy here and what’s your average?

Ghenghis, nobody knows when or if the money will move back to equities anytime soon. Like everyone else I am also annoyed I’ve got in so early and with a decent size of my PF, and the daily share price decline is hard to watch. Doubt starts to creep in everyday but getting in and out in a short space of time is a sure fire way to lose even more money as it’s impossible to time ups and downs as mentioned unless you are an experienced trader. It’s a shame the divi has gone as that was a bonus to remain here whilst the underlying business recovers and now there is little reason to pile in here until a decent update comes out or something materially changes like an offer or sale. I really should switch off from here and come back in a few months for FY reporting. Fingers crossed they at least hit their new guideance, I think the market has lost faith in the board to even deliver that.

I should add

“Isn’t going under anytime soon” anything is possible and it is a possibility the management have got this so wrong. Anything is on the table I just find it unlikely anytime soon given the net cash position and recent bond notes which have been issued against the business. I’m pretty sure the auditors who have scrutinised mobico have greater knowledge than most on here commenting, including me. It will continue to drift until the market sentiment changes and a decent TU.

Comments on this board are sometimes just plain stupid. Share price action does not necessarily mean a company is going down, there’s a lot at work going on behind the scenes in a market. Read the latest fitch rating outlook for mobico, a BBB stable outlook, it recognises the benefit of disposing of the NA bus business, and confirms mobico has a strong liquidity with over 300 million in cash. This company makes enough profit to cover interest on debt, it really isn’t going under and a RI is very unlikely given their net cash position and finance structure.

This always happens when a share just keeps dropping and dropping, I’ve also got a lot in this but this is happening with so many equities right now, unless you have a lucky pick, the majority of the market is selling off. The management have not helped themselves recently but I think the cut in dividend was brought back due to not covenants set by the new Euro bond issued and the reduced forecasts. The macro is also not helping as the Israel conflict is heating up and could easily escalate, add that with the other war, inflation, liquidity being drained from the system. Most big players are in bonds right now so there is little reason to buy stocks, if you are putting money into the market right now as I am, you really will not know where the bottom is but good companies come through. This isn’t an AIM meme stock it’s a huge company offering mostly an essential service across the world with a captive audience. Once the management get their act together and address fare pricing, costs and other things I am confident this will recover it’s just going to take longer than planned. If you don’t believe it then short it. I don’t have the competency to trade and gamble the ups and downs each day but respects to those that can :)

3 buy ratings not long ago and look where the share price has gone. I wouldn’t trust analyst predictions with a barge pole. The stock seems to have a similar pattern in that it gains in the AM and as soon as the American market opens it drops.

JG68 I’m feeling the same as you as I’m sure lots are here. The best thing to do would be to turn off your trading apps and don’t keep checking the share price for a while. Watching intra day charts will take the stress to another level and add to the constant worrying.

Other than a RI (any thing is possible) this is a staple company offering an essential service, growing revenue base and demand. Currently facing some short term issues such as cost control, inflation issues and macro. The management aren’t helping themselves with their updates but it won’t stop people using their services and bringing in the money.

Shares go up and down, you can never time the market but it’s important to have a long outlook. Unless you need the cash today, then sit back and wait it out.

They have already announced they are planning to sell the division so this news isn’t really worthy of a price movement no? It’s all talk at the moment, it will move when a decent offer comes to the table imo. Where is this article?

Agreed Fish. In my opinion the reason this is being punished is due to the poor management and lack on confidence from the market. Not the business itself and it’s sustainability for the future. If the debt is reduced the market will favour this a lot more, as with anything in stock investing there are ups and downs. I’m holding for brighter days! Coach and bud travel isn’t going anywhere and there is demand for it, particularly in a green world. Hopefully the management can deliver on these short term headwinds. Especially getting costs under control and margins up. Time will tell.

North America school bus makes up 70% of the total revenue in that division with the shuttle and transit making up the other 30% between them. So it’s quite a substantial part of the division with roughly 750m for half a year revenue.

I would like to think there would be interest to consolidate this. I really don’t think this is a “distressed” sale as people are making out. Yea they are clear they want to firm up the balance sheet so this is probably more a strategic decision and perhaps they have another more growth orientated market to get into? Cutting the dividend is also a good decision (the market though punishing their back and forth).

This is painful to be here but I do think brighter days are ahead for mobico. Theoretically if they sell the bus division, clear off a major part or the debt, the business will be under less pressure and have opportunity to grow organically. Just my business head, but I do lack confidence in the current board to pull this off and I think is the main reason we are down here

I have a large holding here but I feel like this is a good company, but ran shockingly. Poor forecasts and chopping the divi after reinstating it and then deciding to sell the NA bus business doesn’t give the market any confidence.

I think this is a good long term move, pay down debt and focus on more profitable areas to grow into but they should have done this ages ago.

The reason I am holding (although today has made me poop my pants abit). Growing business albeit with cost issues. Can service their debt even with reduced profit in the short term, vast global reach, have just secured a 500m bond and there is no way they could have got this through if the business was going bust. I feel like this is peak fear for this share, ultimately though this is where the money is made but I’m not sure I’ve got balls to average down on my original 50k invested which is now 51% down.

Shocking. I wonder if a bid will come through, we’ve all be wanting a bid for a while but nothing has come. I think long term this will be back, even if the Na business is sold and they clear debt it will re rate, but that’s an if. I’ve resided to the fact this could now be a much longer hold than I originally anticipated. Will go down with the ship though so am holding for now. GLA.

I’m also not really looking into the rise as from a chart perspective this share has done this many times with a rally

Up to the take another leg down. I’m not overly fussed with the share price at the moment. Aslong as the BoD can deliver on their projections and keep the business running that’s the main thing. Eventually share prices catch up with the business.

Do you ever get the feeling that when a share drops so much and you’re in deep that any more drops and I don’t really care anymore. Will feel like a win when I’m back to my entry, let alone going higher. Which this share will but there won’t be any catalysts for at least a few months I don’t think. The business needs to refinance the bond successfully and start showing some decent profit before this turns. In the meantime just sit tight on the divi. At least this is my theory

There’s also a lot of people on this board that are in the share with like a high 70 entry and pooing their pants at the slightest share movement. A lot of us on here are in much higher and so checking and writing on here everyday isn’t really worth the time. Most of the people commenting are trading the share and peed off they didn’t get their instant return. I’m a long term holder and think this business will do well in the long run. A few green days doesn’t really mean much. The market can quickly turn again so. Gla

Big gains come from playing the long game. Most people now think they can invest and make double their money in a month or two. Just not that realistic and to be honest that’s all just timing bad luck. If you don’t need to realise your losses and just down on a paper loss, then sit back, collect your dividend and ride it out. Shares go up and down, I’m down by 40% now on this share and over 20k. Not really to worries to be honest. I may average down but it’s a large position so my head is telling me to ride out but time will tell. Keep your head up. This game isn’t easy, if it was we’d all be millionaires Rodney

The shorts is temporary and wont last forever. This has gone far lower than I planned but the business will survive and flourish in years to come. Lots of contracts, growing revenues, passenger numbers on the rise and expanding into new markets. The outlook is fantastic and this is where big money is made buying shares that look trashed. Just my opinion. Buy low, sell high and all that. GLA

What has happened to these boards lol elon wanting to buy mobico group! I think he’s more concerned about trying to get to Mars with Space X and changing the world with starlink.