Member Info for jnc0108

Who knows where the bottom is on this share. A complete disaster! They need a solid trading update and some clarity for the market.

I have to say pedro.

Since you’ve been on this board the share price keeps climbing so whatever you’re saying is working. Keep it up :)

The push to a £1 will be good start to the year especially from a psychological point of view. Smart money building their stake as if the NA sale happens it will transform the balance sheet for this company. Loosing a high percentage of revenue by selling it but clearing debt and using some of the funds for more profitable expansion would be a good use of funds

I think you are all looking into this to much. Shares don’t just go straight up. There is obvious accumulation going on and profit taking along the way. It won’t have 8% days everyday. Q1 will be significant for mobico, with updates results to see if they can turn things round, potentially update on NA sale amongst other things. Markets in general have been awful across the board

JG68, like me you are also a long term holder? Did you average down yet? I have a lot of eggs in this basket and thought it was a good buy around the 120 area. It’s evident something is brewing as I think it’s still at ridiculous value and the 30%+ drop we had in a day when the missed guideance came out was excessive imo. All games though. I think fair value is still at least double what the current share price is around the £1.60-£2 region. Once the US bus business has been sold and the inflation based price increases take hold I do think this will be transformational for MCG, similar to first groups recovery.

40k shares for me and a 129 average. Have been waiting for confirmation to average down and not catch the falling knife. A major holder increasing their stake is a positive sign. Following smart money.

Quickdip we haven’t had another update since the last, so how do we know what progress (if any) has been made. My point is the share has gone down and go up a fair bit with no further news. Just the way this all works.

The UK stock market is a rigged casino what do we expect :) the business has not changed since the last trading update yet we dropped around 40% from the high 80s on missed guideance and rallied back to 74 without any news. Market makers and their games.

I’ve never seen such a wild drop and selling pressure on a share. It seems this price action is quite common in the UK stock market. Relentless selling. Is this capitulation…

Yep UK markets is just not the place to be. Although the value of the majority of stocks are a screaming buy, there is barely any money flowing into uk markets so for now it seems like any capital here is a wasted opportunity. Unfortunately have got quite a lot of cash in this and some other uk stocks which aren’t doing much at all. Waiting game I guess.

They also have 350 million in cash, is that being forgotten?

QD there is slim chance a bid would come in for the entire group as there is no way it would be sold. The NA bus business is being prepared for Goldman Sachs due for a sale in 2024, why would anyone put in an offer without seeing a prospectus? You expecting a PE firm to just pluck a number out of the air ahead of time?

Granted a bid could come in for the whole business (in theory) but this would be to the detriment of long term holders. Taking a low ball offer when they don’t need to sell is not going to happen. I feel like there is an element of dispair on this board, the share price is down due to profitability. Let’s just see how the next few updates go and if the increases fares and cost cutting affects the bottom line. If you’ve got a long term mindset this is for sure a bargain at these levels, as are many companies in the ftse250. Short term it’s a voting machine and everything is volatile right now. Just my view

Some poor management decisions, but I think this is a heavily cyclical business. As soon as things start to turn (and if sms gets his company in order) this will re rate fast and significantly. In my view. The biggest problem for me was the margins but I think the long term outlook remains unchanged and this is fundamentally a good forward looking business with its tech etc. time will tell.

Is anyone else trading this share? Down 4% with no news, although it was up 3% first thing. Quite a lot of swings on this. Perhaps the extra short position disclosed. Half tempted to start trading it!

As you all know I’m a long term holder and down 52% on my 50k investment, havent averaged down yet and not a re reramper as I’m not selling out. Just being realistic

I don’t see any reason for an ii to average down right now, not when they can be in a bond or other short term asset with a guaranteed return. They don’t even get a dividend now on their money. Nothing will change here until more positive trading updates and/or a big shift in the macro where the smart money which is mostly on the sidelines comes back into stocks. They will also want to see that management are executing on their plan rather than investing more with a hope. Just my view.

In my opinion the percentage short is nominal. I don’t think that has had a huge impact to the share price. Perhaps I’m wrong. There has been on some days considerable volume.

JG my timeline for this share is 2025 now, I don’t think next year will be that good, but we need a good few quarters of positive updates for the management to show they are turning the ship. Some good appointments recently and new board members with good credibility so I’m positive for better days. It’s just going to be a waiting game now and hope management don’t mess it up further with the FY update. They now have everything to prove and it wasn’t long ago there were purchases around 1.15 and more. This is all a game anyway, stocks can move up just as fast as they can down. Do not forget this is an Infrastructure business in an important growing industry, people rely on transport everyday so this isn’t going anywhere soon. Profit is key though.

Pedro with all due respect you’ve just jumped into this share so why would you care about the divi? There are plenty of us with large holdings here well over a quid and so it’s very easy to ramp when you’re in at this level. I believe in this business long term but it’s frustrating seeing your capital tied down earning no money whatsoever. If the company addresses its balance sheet and reports stronger profits then we will re rate, until then don’t expect anything significant. Just my opinion.

JG68 I see buyers accumulating slowly here, but I’m in the camp that if the sale of the NA business goes through smoothly in H1 2024 and mobico posts a stronger trading update as a result of the inflation based fare increases and cost savings hitting the bottom line, the share price will be significantly higher than it is right now. I do think it was oversold after the q3 trading update hence the slow uptick but we will see stronger gains once management deliver on what they say. Just a waiting game really, shame they cut the divi so we could be making a few quid whilst waiting for the underlying business to improve.

I am optimistic about this business hence why I am invested. But I also do discuss all the possibilities. Mobico is being held together by that business so we need to ensure it keeps growing and providing its returns. No reason to doubt this but it’s the reality. Fingers crossed ay