Member Info for JMU96

'NICE's recommendation .... through its EVA program will support additional data generation requirements whilst the test is being used routinely within NHS sites. It is anticipated that this data collection process will be several years in duration. Further guidance on data collection from NICE is expected in the coming months.'

This to me means that the test is still being further assessed/evaluated and that 'additional data generation is required'. This and the fact that 'several years duration' is mentioned has certainly not helped support investor confidence, certainly not in the short term anyway.
IMHO DYOR

In my view they will only test those babies requiring treatment with aminoglycosides namely gentimicin prior to treatment. According to news released by Man Uni last year that equates to around 100,000 babies each year in the UK. Each test costs around £80 according to NICE plus each unit requires a machine and ongoing warranty/support. So potential recurrent revenue from test sales could be approx. £8 million per year for the UK.

DYOR

Predominantly are two mutations in the mitochondrial 12S rRNA gene that predispose individuals to aminoglycoside ototoxicity. This second SNP 1494C>T is associated with the 1555A>G mutation that the GDR kit detects, this mutation is expected to form a novel 1494C-G1555 or 1494U-A1555 base-pair at the highly conserved A-site of 12S rRNA. As a result this alters the binding sites for aminoglycoside antibiotics. So theoretically someone could design a second test targeting the m.1494 SNP.

For Info Provisional Schedule
Diagnostics consultation: 06 February 2023 - 17 February 2023
Link:
https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-dg10057

@ART123
Yes my post should have read $2.9m rather than £2.9m.

FWIW My reading the currrent cash position is that the cash burn for year to 30 June 2022 is the total comprehensive loss $13,356,151 - $8,520,929 = $4,835,222. As the $8,520,929 is a write down in asset value due to relinshment of licences. This compares to cash burn of $5,155,028 for the year to 30 June 2021. At 30 June 2022, the Group cash position was $4,906,153. So if the cash burn rate for '22 - '23 is comparable to 21' - '22 they have enough cash runway to end June 2023. so agree with @Cromw3ll that they have around £2.9m in the bank as of end Nov. A fund raise is highly likely in my opinion and as @Blubay states probably round spud/drill/early gas shows when SP will probably be in a much healthier postion.
.... and as always DYOR

RNS from 5th October: From what I can find this is the typical time line re the review process for a pre-submission - According to the MDUFA IV Commitment Letter (https://www.fda.gov/media/100848/download) a decision to accept or reject the pre-submission is communicated withinn 15 days of receipt. If accepted and the application requested a meeting/teleconference the communication will confirm one of the dates suggested by the applicant or give a date within 75 days receipt of the pre-submission. So if this time line is correct GDR should already know if the pre-submission has been accepted, and if a meeting has been requested this may have happened already or should by 19th Dec at the latest.
I suspect we might find out on Monday.

Production for July + Sept was actually less than for August. August accounts for just over half the Q3 output. They need to up their game a bit more!

What happened to the positive cash flow forecast for the third quarter mentioned in RNS and during pod cast interviews with senior staff etc...? Even at top end of production guidance at 12300 Oz Pure would have still been loosing money. Technical issues and problems with the crusher seems to have conveniently arisen just after the 12th Sept RNS for nine days as RNS today says last week in Sept back up to full production.

$23.6 bn looks correct to me for pure Ni once extracted and processed. The value of Ni ore per tonne at 0.81% is much lower. From some quick research in August last year the average price of 1.5% Philippine laterite nickel ore stood at $87/mt.... Calculations should be based on the value of the ore... or am I missing something?

PureGold Announces $30 Million Non-Brokered Private Placement; Tony Makuch Joins as Technical AdvisorPure Gold Mining IncFri, May 6, 2022, 10:45 PM

This calculation is for what the extracted Ni would approx. be worth. The way I read the RNS is that it is a non-binding MoU for 0.5Mt of DSO (direct shipping ore) and does not involve any processing. Ni DSO from what I can find is about $70-80 per tonne for 1.5% ore... so @1% Ni ore I would assume approx $45-55 per tonne. So for 0.5Mt this would be between $22.5 - 27.5 million pa rather than $100 million.

Potentially this could be an interesting development for FAR:
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/12/21/new-energy-efficient-vanadium-material-looks-like-scotch-tape-acts-like-planet-hero/

The 'up to 500%' quoted in some elements of the press relates to potential transmissibility rather than virulence.... Virulence relates to the severity of the disease not transmissibility.

Howsthatlse: Very good point re: unknown costs to FGP as regards fees related to this whole process, and on reflection information that is conspicuous by its absence. I feel that this is a difficult one to call as to where this might go post restructuring of share capital. Shares are changing hands currently around £1.01 but current buyers will not benefit from the tender offer, so there must be some belief that this current share price will at least hold up, or that they are hoping for a dividend associated with a share consolidation if the full tender offer is not taken up, or future dividends associated with the disposal of other elements of the business etc.. Folks must remember that FGP have not paid a dividend since 2013, and carry a substantial amount of liability/debt, although they did make a profit in 20/21 for the first time in years. However furlough/tax breaks/gov support etc would have contributed to this at least in the UK. IMHO there must be a bright future in public transport if we are to achieve our goals in the green agenda but it needs significant investment to get there and it will not happen over night.

(Figures take from RNS 27th October)
FGP Total Share Capital – 1,222,969,677
476,190,476 @ 1.05 = 500 million bar 20p!
FGP States that the New Share Capital would be = 746,621,972. (after FirstGroup has acquired all validly tendered and purchased Ordinary Shares from Goldman Sachs) – numbers don’t quite add up?
Worst case scenario re Tender Offer - Assuming only Coastal take up the tender offer:
Coastal – 156,749,809 shares @£1.05 = approx. cost £164.59 million
Then also: second phase share buyback of £50 million assume* @ £1.05 = 47,619,047 shares
(*unknown number of shares as assume this will depend on market value at the time of purchase)
Total cost approx. £214.59 million
Leaves a residual £285.41 million
Plus 156,749,809 + 47,619,047 = 204,368,856 shares to be cancelled
(1,222,969,677 – 204,368,856 = 1,018,600,821 remaining shares)
Assuming overall FGP aim is to reduce total share capital to 746,621,972 this leaves a further 271,821,620 shares to be taken out of circulation via special dividend and share consolidation….
746,621,972 / 1,018,600,821 = 0.733 or to put it another way the remaining share capital still needs to be reduced by appox 25%ish
So the residual £285.41 million shared between 1,018,600,821 existing shares would be approx. 28.02 pence per share dividend whilst also issuing approx.. 3 new shares for every 4 held in a share consolidation.
Obviously depending upon the up take re the Tender Offer this would be on a sliding scale… The bigger the uptake the smaller the special dividend and a corresponding smaller consolidation as there will be fewer shares remaining that need taking out of circulation to reach the target of 746,621,972.
Therefore reducing issued share capital by 38.9% for a cost of approx. £500 million.
It’s worth remembering however that the sale of First Student and First Transit businesses to EQT Infrastructure was for net disposal proceeds of $3,123 million. At current rates this is approx. £2,280 million. So if I read this correctly FGP will have reduced their total share capital issued by nearly 40% for only £500 million leaving FGP with a net £1,780 million from that transaction.
The big question is what will FGP be worth at the end of this process? I think the statement re BoD members intention not to participate in the Tender Offer speaks volumes.
These figures are my own rough interpretation after trying to wade through and make some sense of what is a quite complex FGP offer, and as such anyone reading this should do so only as a rough guide as I may have misread or misinterpreted aspects of the prospectus etc. Folks should do their own research and seek professional financial advice where appropriate.
All Usual Caveats and DYOR

Just for clarification - Extract from RNS 27th October: ''The Company intends to cancel all of the Ordinary Shares acquired in connection with the Tender Offer. As a result, the Tender Offer should have a positive impact on the Group’s earnings per share (assuming earnings stay the same).'' So all tender Offer Ordinary Shares will be cancelled up to a max of 476,190,476 Ordinary Shares (representing up to approximately 38.9 per cent. of the Issued Ordinary Share Capital).
Then ''If the full £500 million is not returned to Shareholders through the Tender Offer, the Board intends to undertake a second phase of the Return of Value to return any remaining surplus cash following completion of the Tender Offer to Shareholders. If required, it is expected that this second phase would take place by way of a share buyback of up to approximately £50 million, with any meaningful surplus above this amount being returned by way of a special dividend (with accompanying consolidation and sub-division of the Company’s share capital (the “Share Consolidation”)).''

So depending the cost of the tender Offer plus a potential £50 million share buy back programme the remainder will be returned as a special dividend with an accompanying share consolidation

Boots have been involved with this initiative since March/April 2020:
https://www.aop.org.uk/ot/industry/high-street/2020/03/30/boots-provides-support-in-covid19-testing-for-nhs-staff

https://www.boots.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/floating-editorial/cha-/live-floating/supporting-the-nhs

Just to note though that the date on the evaluation summary re Senegal is Feb 2021.