Murrison argument25 Jan 2019 18:42
Forget the dwarfs - Micron, Fritzel and co
So there is lots of pondering – on both sides of the Channel – about what lies behind the latest Murrison amendment, which is also signed by Sir Graham Brady and May’s former deputy Damian Green.
It demands “the Northern Ireland backstop be replaced with alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border; supports leaving the European Union with a deal and would therefore support the Withdrawal Agreement subject to this change”.
It is an intriguing amendment, since it talks of “alternative arrangements” – the same phrase used recently in a Tweet by Sabine Weyand, the top EU negotiator and opposite number to Olly Robbins on the UK side.
In a reply to journalists Ms Weyand said that these arrangements were “alternatives, independent from future relationship, to the backstop” which the EU was open to – referring to the Tusk/Juncker letter that landed before the ‘meaningful vote’.
So ears prick up in Brussels at the same use of language by Murrison and co. Could this be a gambit by May, to hedge off the DUP and the Jacob Rees-Mogg’s Brexiteer ERG group with a promise to pursue “alternative arrangements” that would obviate the backstop?
This might take the form of a legally binding addendum (an ‘interpretive statement’ by the European Council) guaranteeing that the EU will seek ‘alternative arrangements’ to the backstop – as indeed is already promised in the Political Declaration.
On this benign reading, Mrs May could use this amendment to re-open talks, engage with the EU and return with something that the DUP and ERG could then buy into – just as they were looking for an ‘off-ramp’.
In other words, it could be a ‘cunning plan’ – if you think the DUP/ERG rebels would be fobbed off with such a sleight of hand. Alas, I fear that this is a rather over-sophisticated reading of what is going on.
The amendment, which I understand is being tabled with the active encouragement of the Chief Whip, actually heralds a potentially significant move by the Government in which, if it passes, quickly leads to a very high-risk game of chicken with the EU.
The idea behind the amendment is not subtle. It is to replace the entire legal text of the Irish backstop with a single line which commits both sides to avoiding a hard border.
I can see how that will enable Mrs May to at least say to her backbenchers that she tried to ‘bin the backstop’, but I’m 99.999 per cent certain that approach is not going to work in Brussels. Indeed, as one sources says, “if that’s the case, then clashes lie ahead.”
It is possible (as in recent editions of the Brexit Bulletin) to game out scenarios when maybe – just maybe – the Irish backstop gets a last-minute tweak to secure a deal.
That might be a five-year time limit, as the Polish foreign minister recently mooted, or perhaps a tweak to the exit mechanism that satisfies a majority of the ERG/DUP at a moment when they are looking for a way out.
But this M
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