Member Info for jk400

Yehoshua Shai Kol has now joined the party.

Excellent, and I expect there should be another puff piece coming along later today to put some more flesh on the bone.

That's the good thing about this stock with lack of liquidity. With so much held by the board and long term holders, when it starts to rise, it takes off very quickly.

It went the other way of course just as fast, when pumpers/dumpers bailed out after the bad harvest, but we just need consistent positive news.

Remember, we were well undervalued even before the drop and we're now 70% below where we were before the mill was even built!

Yes, just comparing data with 2016.

The key for me is are the FFB's still on an upward trajectory and, even after a dreadful harvest, they are. So, in a 'normal' year, thing's are looking good.

FFB's:
2016 20,726
2017 32,364
2018 24,903

CPO Production:
2016 4,738
2017 7,055
2018 5,464

CPO Sales:
2016 4,731
2017 6,586
2018 4,950

So the results are out and as expected really. Nothing to write home about, appears the ‘normalisation’ is continuing but it’s Q1 that will be the key quarter.

Down on Q4 17 (record), up on Q4 16.

Thanks Phil, yes in answer to one of my questions, LJM said "Q4’s we aim to release on the 10th as promised."

That's tomorrow, but we have come to expect a bit of give/take.

Thanks to cjgoldsmith for compiling those questions, thanks to LJM for his time (again) answering questions.

Looking forward to Q4 data this week, I sense some optimism, but can't read too much in to it. More puff pieces and audio calls most welcome.

Welcome also to deepjoy.

Morning CJ, FK1 and others.

Re Norpalm, LJM said no more dilution and any acquisitions would be paid for out of future profits, why has this changed?

I see this as a positive accusation, but the 4.5p debacle leaves a bad taste in the mouth. Can LJM assure us that this is not the new 'normal' and when does he foresee the SP back in the 10p - 20p range?

I know he can't say much on this point, but what is the latest re FFB's returning to 'normal' levels in Q4? Again, we are 3 months in the dark.

Now that we are a multi sector business, has there been any though on renaming to something like Dekel Group? Whenever I mention Dekeloil to people and the first thing they hear about is Palm Oil, their eyes glaze over and are not interested in investing. The recent bad publicity around Palm Oil isn't helping us, despite us being an ethical company.

Where does LJM think we will be this time next year?

Merry Christmas to all on this board and at DKL.

VSA have reiterated Buy, 12p target.

I’m happy to carry on holding, for everybody in above 10p, there’s little point in doing anything else in the short-medium term. I still have confidence this will come good and the cashew project promises great things (although we’ve heard that before). Diversifying has to be a good thing for the company, but window dressing 4.5p as positive is an insult to long term loyal investors.

4.5p?

Morning all, I think this drop off is related to an EU ban on certain oils in diesel by 2030. I caught the tail end of it on a review of the week programme on a news channel at the weekend. Looking back it was announced early last week, so would tie in with this latest setback.

All of this has a negligible effect on DKL and, if anything, the board should be proactively spreading the good news story around the company (although it will probably do more harm than good and fall on deaf ears), but DKL are an ethical producer unlike many others.

We had the same drop offs after the supermarket ban. Nothing to report here I don't think until the Q4 results which really need to be positive now, in fact we need every quarter moving forward for next couple of years to be positive to get this back on track.

A happy Christmas to all the excellent contributors (and long term sufferers) to the DKL discussion and to the end of our annus horribilis.

Morning Rugs, I'm hopeful that this 16% out-of-the-blue upturn is a sign that things are improving out there in the field.

Although, yet again with DKL we have these strange trades which turn up every now and again for no reason, which we don't then get to find out about why they have happened until further down the line. I can find no record of any news, share tips, RNS's, etc. related to DKL, unless some other company in Ivory Coast has reported a record harvest or something?

It would appear that the supermarket story has again spooked ill advised investors today.

There was an hour long debate at 12 noon on LBC earlier about palm oil, but no counter arguments from the likes of DKL explaining RSPO benefits etc. and the good work being done in West Africa. Another example of the positive message not being put out here.

It’s one step forward, two steps back at the moment.

Cheers fk1, only another 70.3% to go then back to break even levels.

A belated thank you to fk1 re the agm report the other week.

I've topped up some loose change this morning again at these prices, but still on a watching brief.

Morning FK1, thanks for that and await write up later. Cheers.

If anyone is going to the AGM this morning, can you please enquire about when the company owned estates are due to mature. Also, any forward guidance as to Q4 (as much use as it is!), as there wasn't any in the RNS. Thank you.

Hopefully there will be more positive news next week with the AGM.

Morning Phil, there are some variables which I don't think they've taken into account. They are assuming all things are equal to last year.

Q4 2017 was a record quarter from memory for a Q4, so it's not a given that "the company manages to achieve at least the levels reached in Q4 2017".

What I don't think they're taking into account though is the one off costs of last year, i.e. capex of upgrading mill to 75 tonnes p/h, back up boiler, empty fruit press, and so on.

Also, the reduced interest on loans following the renegotiation and, of course, no dividend.

Even factoring all of that in, the company is still in a much better position to be able to withstand these headwinds now than when we were last making a loss several years back. Despite this, the SP is 70%-80% down on before we even had a mill.

Indeed Phil, must be from the fundraiser222/troublingtimes school of pumping and dumping. Just hasn't been taught the pumping bit yet.

VSA Comment:

Having reported signs of stabilisation in regional fruit availability when it released its H1 2018 results last month, DKL has confirmed this morning that FFB crops have started to recover, recording an increase of more than 15% YoY in Q3. However, this was still below the levels recorded in Q3 2015 and Q3 2016, suggesting further recovery is likely.

DKL entered Q3 with little inventory on hand so was unable to smooth out its CPO sales for one of its quieter quarters (as it has done in previous years). We look forward to its Q4 production figures to confirm further evidence of a recovery in regional cropping levels, prior to its high season early next year.

In terms of palm oil pricing, we are hopeful that the current level of cUS$530/t in Rotterdam represents a bottom in the current cycle, due to an improved crude oil price making palm-based biodiesel more economic, more positive US soybean oil pricing over the last month and much stronger palm oil exports in South East Asia in recent weeks (Malaysian exports increased almost 50% MoM in September). However, we would also highlight that we have now entered the peak production season for South East Asian palm oil production, which may moderate some of these factors.

DKL has now collected 121,133t of FFB and produced 27,613t of CPO YTD. Assuming the company manages to achieve at least the levels reached in Q4 2017, the company remains on track to reach our forecasts of 147,525t FFB and 33,341t CPO production for FY 2018.

We are currently assuming an average achieved CPO sales price for the year of €523/t. DKL has achieved €548/t YTD (due to achieving a premium over the European benchmark price), so this may provide slight upside to our FY forecasts (depending on Q4 pricing).

We are currently forecasting revenues of €20.2m and net loss of €2.8m for FY 2018. We maintain our BUY recommendation and target price of 12p.