Member Info for jk400

Back up to $675 on Friday in Rotterdam.

Phil, yes you are correct and my sense is that the numbers are still yet to recover after that bad year if you remember. It was a once in 10 year phenomenon and akin to the UK economy, never fully recovered after 2008.

Morning Fk1, yes two things of note. One, the board is not in control of, the second they are.

"The average CPO prices for 2018 and 2019 rank as among the worst in the last 15 years." Yes, but why have they not been more proactive in getting FFB levels up?

These have been stagnant for a few years now one way or another. If the fertiliser programme works, then let's get on with it.

The response? "Faced with such a challenging pricing environment, our focus at Ayenouan has been on costs and efficiency." The fertiliser programme in 2020 on the other hand is being "gradually" increased and they are "seeking to scale up" further in the years to come.

We've been an RSPO member since 2008, why is it taking so long (and even longer now due to COVID) to get the certification?

It is pleasing though that they have stopped that nasty habit (apart from a little bit of Gok Wan dressing from time-to-time with forward guidance) of over promising and under delivering. 2019 low CPO prices were a given and telegraphed as such beforehand, so we knew these results were never going to be anything to write home about. I hope they return soon to the early days where they were under promising and over delivering.

Yes Phil, checking recent RNS's you are of course correct and yet again with DKL it's 2 steps forward and 1 back.

FK1, or should I call you "Mystic Meg" - spot on as usual with your prophesy last night!

darientaylor, if you read the RNS again, it states that March was a record month for CPO producton (6314 tonnes) and a strong April (6143 tonnes) - so it would appear that the high season was early this year. Other operators in the region are reporting the same.

I think I'm also correct in saying January was also a record month (?), but I may be getting that mixed up with last year.

On that basis, it would appear that we have entered low season earlier than normal, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing with CPO being a lot higher earlier in the year.

The price per tonne they got in May of €541 is encouraging, being only €36 lower than April. I thought it would be lower with the large drop off in Rotterdam prices. From the RNS, it looks like that lag won't hit us until June, which is in to low season anyway.

Any business anywhere in the world that is profitable at the moment can only be described as positive news.

Always a sting in the tail though, isn't there? Another 317,434 shares issued in lieu for advisers.

Afternoon all, yes and as noted the other week, the major drop off in CPO prices shouldn't hit for another 7-10 days from now, leaving us with only a few weeks of high season that is affected. This looks like a much better H1 than last year, but usual caveats of DYOR, etc.

They say on the RNS that they intend to revert to quarterly data, and there may be good reasons for this, but they clearly have access to this data monthly and now they've let the cat out of the bag. Also, with the lesser-spotted (of late) 'Gok Wan' esque "forward guidance" in certain RNS's, we already knew they had access to live data anyway. I wonder whether they would have changed to monthly reporting if April had been a bad month? Unlikely, so it works both ways re positive/negative months, let the shareholders decide.

Thanks Jonco (and Phil for earlier reply re website).

Updates are something I've been pushing for sometime, so this seems like a good solution to trial and see how it pans out.

The question mark in the past has been it may give competitors an advantage, but if that's the case then I see no reason why the monthly updates can't be on a rolling delay, so start of May is up to 31st March, start of June up to 30th April, etc.

Anything is better than waiting 3 and a half months to find out, for example, January was a quiet month. Ditto in the past we've seen a record first month in the quarterly cycle (be that April, July, October or January) and not known anything about it until the RNS 3 months later. So, this is a positive step, albeit possibly only temporary.

Why is the DKL website offline? Lincoln, things like this don't help.

Morning both, yes CPO dropping back is another downer, but at least this won't kick in too bad until almost the end of high season. We should at least see 3 months of decent pricing.

A record March for production (at Feb pricing) plus whatever happened in April at the March pricing levels (circa $620-$640) and then anything from now to middle of May (circa $600), before the drop off.

They would be wise to get those tanks emptied asap.

Another thing affecting CPO may be B40 in Malaysia has been put on the back burner due to COVID.

Jonco, you will always struggle to sell large tranches, the share is quite illiquid.

That's not always a bad thing.

Latest puff piece.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqMzQMfAcZs

The audio cuts out after 2:10 until 5:06

Palm oil
"January like a low season month."
Picked up "significantly in March, record production".
"Strong start to April"

Rest of Palm oil and all of Cashews bit missing.

Energy
Seems to be repeat of RNS, sounds positive.

Additional projects
Have been assessing 4 or 5 commodities and has become clear best way to go. They are just "finalising the sign off of that internally" and will announce when ready.

Moving forward with all projects, currently "uninterupted". Drop in global CPO price "annoying" but still higher ebitda than last year. Not unrealistic to suggest two projects (palm and cashew) in normal conditions to soon be generating ebitda close to our current market cap.

Send in questions, etc. He's "happy to look on the chatboards"! and will answer and update shortly.

Morning rivaldo, yes I make Q1 revenue on CPO sales around €1.1 million more than Q1 2019, despite less FFB collected and therefore CPO production/sales. It would appear we now have 1000 tonnes of CPO left in the storage tanks?

Like you say, a mixed bag. Record March in terms of fruit processed but (FK1), it would appear high season didn't start in November this year! It's always good to see record FFB's, it's one of the things I am constantly looking for amongst the usual doom/gloom and window dressing - although this quarter, that may have just been due to later start to peak. The board need to prioritise greater collection of FFB and keep ramping this up for when things do improve.

3 month delay on cashews. Not bad considering all that is going on, but as you say rivaldo, that is a series of what ifs.

Internal feasibility studies on potential fourth project completion sounds positive, although this could be more window dressing and unlikely to be anything for a few years at least.

A final positive - "We will endeavour to provide regular updates...…." - well stone me!

Evening rugs, could it be Mr Francois selling off his holding after leaving the board?

It's a shame he couldn't have sold it to Mr Aris, but possibly they're of no use to him now that he's joined the gravy train of free shares in lieu. ;)

Hope all regular contributors to this board are keeping well.

Rotterdam CPO seems to have stabalised around $800 - $850, currently $830.

I can only imagine we have some profit taking from those who bought in at the bottom (approximately 100% profit for them).

The punters of the week, who bought in last week are now sitting on >20% losses, welcome to the wonderful world of DKL, so some of them are no doubt bailing out.

I don't think the lacklustre, albeit most welcome, puff piece has done us any favours.

Disappointing, when she interupts LJM at 1:11 to point out "it's palm oil with a difference", the point isn't emphasised that DKL is NOT cutting down rainforests, killing orangutans, and such like - which is the first thing the general public think of when they hear "palm oil".

Here's a turn up for the books, an in vision puff piece, first for must be 2-3 years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHjO3jIhv1o

Well done tricky, many of us here are keeping the faith with DKL to get back our (paper) losses.

This is, quite literally, a please everyone all of the time type RNS. For anyone playing DKL bingo, they are all there:

Record production? Check.
Poor quarter? Check.
Inclement weather conditions? Check.
"Weak low season"? Check.
"Extended periods of cloud cover" which impacts fruit ripening? Check.
Introduction of a "super peak period" - "which typically takes place in March" - for production in 2020? Check.
Gok Wan / Window dressing? Check.
Dilution? Check.
Extraction rate in December 2019 recovering to typical levels? Check.
Company assessing the storing of PKO to take advantage of expected higher prices? Check.

Having said that, and having dropped my opinion from Strong buy to Weak buy, I'm relatively positive with this update moving forward. There can be no more excuses in Q1/Q2.

I tend to agree more with deepjoy than ShearClass, FFB collected throughout the year at record level despite poor Q4.

2015 - 152000
2016 - 171000
2017 - 171000
2018 - 146000
2019 - 176000

Will digest a bit more.