Member Info for jk400

It's a few weeks out of date, but here is the 2021 shareholders presentation.

https://vimeo.com/521830235

Fk1, Sarah Lowther did ask Lincoln about monthly reporting moving forward in the puff piece.

He said he was coming around to agreeing with that way of thinking (that the extra visibility and such like is a good thing).

As you say, we've seen lack of news flow for weeks on end here mean a gradual drift downwards.

wcbham, you better believe this sort of thing with DKL! 10% is a drop, no pun intended, in the ocean with this.

Really good RNS, with the added bonus of some excellent forward guidance. At least they upgraded to Anna Ryder-Richardson this month instead of Mr Wan.

For those interested in the FFB data:
Q1 2016 - 65610 (tonnes)
Q1 2017 - 72083
Q1 2018 - 59531
Q1 2019 - 69340
Q1 2020 - 55895 (Jan 2020 - 10240, Feb 2020 - 16547, Mar 2020 - 29108)
Q1 2021 so far - 39239* (Jan 2021 - 15601, Feb 2021 - 23638, Mar 2021 - ?)

Afternoon FK1, you are of course correct.

I too thought it was 70,000tpa but when looking back at recent RNS's, it only says 60,000tpa.

I then thought perhaps we were mistaken and getting it mixed up with the 25% upgrade a few years ago when they upgraded to 75 tonnes per hour (from 60tph).

With a bit of detective work, it would appear that every RNS before the 10th June 2020 has the 70,000 figure, and every RNS after the 30th June 2020 is the 60,000 figure.

Jonco, thanks for that, plenty of detail in there and more shortcrust than puff for a change.

Well at the moment, Ayenouan is at half capacity like it has been for a number of years now. We are also at the whim of global CPO prices. Yet, you're telling us everything is rosy in the DKL garden.

Fundraiser222 was telling us all of the same things a few years back, yet on the morning of the Q1 RNS, he had dumped his entire load off the back of a poor harvest. We had the same nonsense on the other side from troublingtimes pumping the SP downwards with Norpalm.

You say that you've "been invested since the days of 17p and right now [you've] more than doubled [your] money because [you've] backed [your] optimism through thick and thin. [Your] research tells [you] it's a good opportunity so [you] don't second guess it. [You] believe it will multi bag from here and that's [your] unshakeable personal view." - was that your unshakable view when your 17p investment was worth just 1.7p, or had you bailed out long before and then bought back in again at the bottom?
There's nothing wrong with that strategy of course, but at least be honest with us that if the Q1 results are not up to your expectations that you won't have bailed out within minutes of the RNS being released?

For the record, I've been invested since the days of 12p and right now I've more than halved my money because I've backed my optimism through thick and thin.

This time last year CPO was at similar highs and dropped back during our high season. This is what I’ve been trying to tell you for some time now. Until we get to May/June with the current levels of CPO pricing, there’s no point getting excited. You may remember fundraiser222 didn’t take similar advice and bailed out at the first sign of bad news.

...or, Pickling, they have taken note of the recent drop off of CPO prices. 13% down (Rotterdam) from the high seen on 6th January. $1135 then, now $990.

9p by end of February possible according to Zak Mir in this puff piece:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dM8JeBaf0mk

2 minutes in.

I agree with those questioning the need for the issuing of shares. If this cowman is udderly serious about wanting to hold stock in DKL, then he should do as Shai Kol and Lincoln Moore did with their after salary funds and buy stock on the open market. The BOD are just, no pun intended, milking it now with all this dilution. Having said all that, there's no point crying over split milk.

The market is clearly of the same opinion as last week we were up 20% on a day of no news, yet today just 3 days later we are 8% down on actual news. Some of that may well be profit taking after a steep rise of late, but the sentiment of the market today is clear.

Fk1, yes fundraiser222 is also sadly missed, he was always so positive about DKL! Well, until the first sign of bad news. Patience is a virtue with DKL.

Good RNS, but a long way back to where we need to be. 200% above the floor it seems, but this needs a similar rise from where we are now to get back to some sort of normality.

Rotterdam CPO hit $1135 on Wednesday, dropping to $1090 yesterday. DKL's breakeven is around $500-$550 per tonne from memory.

https://palmoilanalytics.com/price/crude-palm-oil-cif-rotterdam/

Re monthly figures vs quarterlies debate, with only a single commodity I understand why they wanted to do this, but once we have the cashew factory open, one would hope that a bad month for one could be equalled out by a better month for the other. How often do peers like MP Evans report?

Looks like we are now at "that" stage of proceedings where there is a lack of stock available. This usually means we can sit back, relax and enjoy our popcorn/cashews.

Fk1, your 20p sell price could look undervalued in very short order if CPO stays at $1k+ per tonne, remember we were at that level when Ayenouan was at the stage the Cashew facility is at now, i.e. not even built. Granted, there has been mass issuing of shares in lieu, but they are mostly to long term holders with orderly exits built in.

dyor etc.

I wonder if there is an outside chance of the divi being reinstated this year?

Without COVID, I think it would have been a possibility with CPO prices being materially higher than when we had the divi last time before it was pulled. Next year may be a more realistic timeframe with the cashflow situation.

From the other forum, new video of the Cashew facility on the DKL twitter page.

https://twitter.com/DekelAgriVision/status/1339132199375949824

Fk1, it now appears we are at that stage where they are short of stock. We've seen this before and the MM's try to shut it down very quickly. All good news for us though.

Despite the BOD giving away shares like confetti, most of it is to long term holders or those tied in to a managed sale agreement. As we know, there is very little actual stock available on a day-to-day basis with this illiquid stock.

Vinegar, there isn't any excitement yet.

Sure, if you bought in at 1.7p, you've doubled your money.

The CPO price is up at good levels, yes, but they were up this time last year and by the time of our actual high season (not the pretend one), they were back to $500 - $600, so barely breaking even.

FFB collected may be up 20% compared to the same point last year, but as Fk1 correctly assumed yesterday this was against a low comparative of Q4 2019. When compared to Q4 2018, we are treading water for FFB collected.

The SP is level/down again today, why is that if the news is all good? Why are we not at least back at 10p - 20p, like we were when Ayenouan wasn't even built?

Lincoln Moore and Shai Kol saw "a lot of value" when the SP was at 3.6p - 3.9p last time, why were they not then piling in at 1.7p?

The BOD say no more dilution is needed to finance these new projects, yet every other month they are diluting again, despite being told for years at the AGM's and via the conference calls that the shareholders are not seeing this as positive.

So yes, there are a lot more positives now than at any point for years, but it is certainly not all rosy in the DKL garden.

Pickling, there has been an awful lot of statements in the interims and every RNS since the year dot and they never got us very far.

Yes, there is a lot of reason for optimism at the moment and a lot more than for quite some time, but DKL has always been a case of 1 step forward, 3 steps back. We need that to be the other way around and it makes having now had consecutive positive news flow month on month.

This is possibly the longest period of positivity for several years, but SP doesn't lie. Until that gets back to more normal levels, it's difficult to get too excited here yet.

Afternoon fk1, my pseudo glass half full reasoning is telling me that the jump in production is to do with a lower harvest last year. I think there was a bad rainy season from memory which meant FFB collected in Q4 2019 was down 22% on Q4 2018.

FK1, yes your 17p next buy in price has certainly proven to be invaluable over the years.

Invaluable that is, in the sense that we're only 70%-80% down instead of 95%+!

Having seen what's happened this morning after you ignored your own advice, I will maintain my watching brief until this gets back to somewhere approaching 14p-17p. :)