Member Info for Jiving

Exactly they are waiting for the repeat data, it would be madness to approach likely pharma licensee's until you have the full set - partic if its weeks away. Given the crucial congress is in Sept that will mark the start date of the main effort. They have had contact with Kissei in depth leading to a near deal back in 2020, & possibly some feelers out others since but the whole point of waiting for the full data set is exactly that: get the full set then approach the most likely candidates. Those figures for for licensee discussions seem way way over optimistic compared to the timescales I have seen other small bio's take. Everything takes longer in practice than in theory.

I think you are reading way too much short term optimism into Dan's generally bullish pronouncements (this again is a recurring theme over the years & in that the past does replicate the present). You hope for this year, I see it 1H 2024 - we will find out who is closer to the truth, and to be clear, I hope its you & we can have a good Xmas.

I listened to the same podcasts/interviews and my take was we had a couple of lung tissue tests to do to get a full data set. Then we have the conference in Sept where the biotechs meet with the big pharma's, its the ideal place to begin serious marketing with a full data set. Any signs of genuine interest lead to NDA's, detailed analysis by the pharma potentially followed by deal negotiations. I cant realistically see anything before H1 2024, of course I 'hope' it comes through earlier, but hope & reality have been far apart in the history of NFX & I have been here since the re-listing.

My timeline is quite a bit longer than that. I see real discussions taking place aft & after Milan, so wouldn't expect any NDAs till autumn &, at best, deals next year. Hope it happens sooner but we have been hoping that for years & everything takes longer.

If Dan could dump NXP001 for either side of £500k that sounds a good deal for us. Raising that amount of money would be horrifically dilutive & 001 is of little practical use to us following the Oxilio deal. Remember a major disposal would likely be a BOD decision not just his alone.

Thanks important quality point Shaun. Looking at their annual figures Vale produced 308m tons of iron ore in 2022 & 32m tons of pellets. Govt stats state 63% of Brazilian iron ore goes to China. Next major customers are Malaysia, Japan, S Korea, Bahrain & Oman. So already some production goes to ME.

Is it feasible that Vale could supply the ME green steel hubs from its current Brazilian mines or from the expansion of those mines?

Relax 360 appreciate your research & posts, its important the positive case for 002 isn't lost in the babble. The reality, as LTH know only too well, is that it takes many years to get to the data level we are now at with 002. Potential competitors are falling by the wayside, but IPF cases continue to grow - we may yet have our time in the sun.

Thanks for the links guys, the speed of progress on this whole Arabian green steel project is stunning - we are getting 1/2 announcements per month! So, if they are up & running by 2026 they could be selling directly into the lucrative European market replacing India & others who are slower off the mark. Also noteworthy that another wealthy giant Saudi institution, Saudi Aramco has now joined the party & is investing directly into the project alongside PIF. There is big money swirling around this thing.....

MM not sure if your 12.44 comment was aimed at me, but I will reply anyway.

Both sides of the argument are being put, I am actually pointing out a simple arithmetic fact about an entirely reasonable situation. If no news has occurred by December, the Glencore loan is called & the share price has fallen back to 2p (which it was some 9 months ago) - in which case 36m shares will not raise the funds to repay the loan or continue operations, so we would have to issue more shares. Not an impossible situation. The repost 'what are you going to do about it' applies to virtually everything discussed here: what if there is no Saudi deal as widely mooted here - its nonsensical to rule out discussion of that because 'what are you going to do about it' if it doesn't take place.

I also hope that the bulk of this share agreement will never be used & its there as suggested by Extrader primarily for 'going concern' reasons & also to show Glencore & the market they have a means of repaying the loan when it currently becomes due at year end. If a deal comes in autumn its moot.

And MM it is not a pointless discussion but a perfectly reasonable one for LTH to have when faced with an equity financing & frankly very bad IR/PR. It is quite normal to discuss the pro's & con's of such an arrangement for a company with a highly volatile share price.

Marcus - yes indeed its stated as 36m shares, but at half the quoted share price it will produces half the quoted proceeds - & what if the share price drops even further back to 2p? It is possible that in order to repay Glencore & continue operations through 2024 they actually needed the amount of funds shown in the example. For example the Glencore loan & interest outstanding is circa £1m at present. If the 36m does not produce the funds needed then they will have to issue more shares. The point is you cant allow the share price to unnecessarily go into free fall when you have market linked equity funding in the pipeline.

Mitch, & its doubly important in the light of the Shard facility which is totally dependent on the prevailing share price. Simply dumping the info in 2 RNSs with no accompanying explanation, unnecessarily crashed the share price. The example in the subscription RNS used a price of 13.3p which would cause 5.9% dilution, early Tuesday morning it was trading at virtually half that level - so to raise the same funding amount then would have cost basically double the dilution ie more like 11+%. Thats how self defeating it was not to accompany it with some elementary IR/PR - frankly I am surprised AT & Elphick didnt see this coming.

Driving, I thought the same about Glencore's loan - that it was there to see a deal through by year end - actually I still think thats the hope. Its just been pushed from Q3 to Q4.

But if nothing happens by year end, then Glencore (if being friendly & expecting a deal soon in 2024) could roll the loan over for another 6/12 months. Or one or more tranches of the Shard deal is used to repay the loan & interest. Yes that does mean Glencore's stake is diluted by the same 6% or whatever as the rest of us. The loan & its year end repayment, is one source of influence/pressure they have over Elphick & the BOD, by putting in place the Shard mechanism Elphick shows its taken care of in the event it being called at year end. The other pressure point Glencore now have, is their ability to dispose of their 48% as they see fit now the 6 month lockup has expired.

Extrader, I have no idea of the current mechanics for a stake-building exercise given our limited liquidity, & current regulations. But in theory it provides a method of arithmetically reducing a bidding party's total cost if they purchase any proportion in the market at current prices if the eventual takeover is based around NPV. There may well be NDA clauses prohibiting this & as you note it also, when made public, gives the game away. A third party like FMG might want to force their involvement in any transaction via this method, or a hedge fund might use it to precipitate a bidding contest & rapidly secure value for their stake. Likely wont happen!

Hi Extrader, the dawn raid cant work for ZIOC for a big % for the reasons you note, partic lack of II & also conc ownership (Glen, Elphick + the gang). But it likely could work for a smaller %, ie something like 5-10%. If at todays price range a bidder were to offer say 30-50p - you would quite likely take out many traders & even some LTH who would derisk a % of their holding. If we judge an NPV bid to be in the range £1.33-£4.00 (my range, others are higher) - then any bidder lowers their overall takeover cost & also potentially becomes a 'spoiler' or an unwanted participant in whatever takeover deal might take place.

ATG, its an important point. Due to Glen, Elphick & other original insiders owning a clear majority, any bidder knows they have to cut a deal with them to get majority control. However, I can remember the 'dawn raid' in the City that seemed frequent in '80s & 90's (is it problematic now?). Whereby a stake-builder would put a serious bid into the market; well above the previous close; in order to get up to 29.9% of the shares outstanding - ie not at that stage seeking control/51%+. Given the vast discrepancy between our share price valuation & any NPV it would make financial sense for a bidder to do something similar - if regulations (& maybe clauses in an NDA?) allow that.

If AT had released this info on the Chinese angle on Monday, along with the explanation about the financing arrangement as detailed by Extrader, we might not have had the disastrous share collapse we experienced this week. Which none of us LTH needed....

Very useful info Veteran10, thanks for sharing.

Good summary 4kandles - on reflection this is my conclusion about todays RNSs as well. ZIOC in practice has no capability to develop a giant mine & Glencore seem to show no interest in playing a role in developing the asset. I just hope they haven't been too sniffy about any buyout offers that may have come in.

Milllerston - seizure or sanctions by US if controlled by BRICS - can you give any examples of mining assets being seized or sanctioned when they are 'controlled' by India or indeed Brazil. Mining assets all around the world are being developed by the Chinese - again where are the US seizures?

ATG I see Glencore's approach as being a problem right up to the restructuring. But the restructuring signalled they were a 'willing seller' with their equity stake keeping their long term involvement going with the offtake/royalty deal. For the latter to have any value they have to get the project moving, my worry is its now the Elphick group who may be too aggressive in their demands.

As extrader has just set out, we are realistically the only viable high grade iron ore mine in RoC.