Member Info for Jiving

Extrader, Vale has been hit with financial issues ever since the Brumadinho dam disaster - not only costing them lost production but $7b in compensation alone. They have done a couple of sizeable offtake deals with Glen for working capital to expand existing domestic mines since the disaster. It is quite possible they do not have the capital to expand outside Brazil at present, but a consortium deal with Saudis/UAE providing capital & them providing expertise & technology would make sense. Plus of course all their recent JV activity with Saudi/UAE on the green steel front - the key element missing is guaranteed (& part Saudi/UAE owned) ore production for the new Arabian green steel project.

What the project needs is both capital & development/operating expertise. The Saudis/UAE have capital & Vale has the expertise. The Saudis aren't flying Nguesso around in a luxury jet for no return & the UAE is not building a port out of charity. Given we are all pitching in the absolute dark - my take is a consortium - Saudi/UAE/Vale. Glencore get their annual royalty payment & an enhanced relationship with Saudi/UAE, & of course their 48% of a full buyout. We get the same buyout terms as per Takeover Code etc

Now confirmed Lula is meeting Nguesso & MBS in Paris = the main 3 partners.

5.5m dumped in 3 minutes - guess thats 'sell on the rumour' in action.

Hopefully we will cop a break from their drivel, whilst they move on to their next victim.

Desperation setting in with the PnD crew, everything else has failed, so now they report their own rumours generated on TG initially, then broadcast via twitter. God help any sucker falling for this lame routine - fool, money, parted.

Thinking through timeline to potential deal, what are peoples thoughts (Earl, Ria etc excluded obvs). My understanding (as a non-pharma person and with O level Biology to guide me) is:

1. They are hoping to have the final confirmatory lung tests done prior to the Respiratory Congress in Sept. It would make absolutely no sense to make any formal proposals/presentations to potential partners until then - we have waited 5+ years to accumulate the data set so why jump the gun?

2. The whole industry 'buyers/sellers' get together in Sept @Congress with deals in mind. Ideal timing for real discussions to begin.

3. IF afterwards, we get real positive feedback from potential licensing partner(s) they will presumably want to undertake a very detailed analysis of all the test results (good & bad), plus examine how 002 might fit in with their existing IPF strategy. My hunch is this is likely a couple of months at best, so I wouldn't expect any detailed licensing discussions to begin till either side of Xmas. Shortest path to a deal therefore - some time in the first half of 2024?

Its time to buy. He has a great track record, he tried trashing ZIOC to below 2p when of course he should have been buying. Less than a year later its 7x the price he missed & only going higher.

Maybe is not the Algos but Aliens, who have also picked up what a huge bargain NFX is at these levels.

Indeed aberdeenman, which could push valuation more towards Veteran's upper limit of 400p & give a project valuation of around $3 billion.

IPO was 156p.

All time high was 222p.

The original placing in November 2010 went largely to institutional investors including the Blackrock Mining Fund which seemed to vindicate the pricing. Obviously many things have changed since, but the analyst reports & commentators saw a pre-development value either side of US$2 billion, or £1570m at todays FX. Divide by current outstanding shares thats around 260p - which is in the same ballpark as the IPO price & all time high.

Extrader/Marcus

Its my hope as well that we will get entirely bought out & a Saudi/UAE/BRICS consortium will take it forward under 100% ownership (less ROP stake of course). I cant believe they will want the 'old style' ZIOC/Xstrata type arrangement, whereby a little AIM company clings on to a stake with the intention of it being bought out later at a far higher price once Stage 1 is complete.

PS We know from Veteran's chat last year with AT that GLEN are happy to sell their stake; & the new JV structure with their offtake/royalty arrangement is now their preferred method of maintaining a long term interest.

Agreed, its hopeless they cannot manage to connect their investors once a year. They need to produce a summary & release it via official or IR channels.

Did anyone listen in to the meeting today? I am not in one of the phone-in countries listed & none worked for me.

Like the way these UAE guys operate, no nonsense if they want a deal they dont prevaricate just get on & do it - imagine if they adopted that can-do style getting the Zanaga mine up & running. Interesting how the Saudis are acting hand-in-hand with the UAE in this show - with Saudis provide the plane for Nguesso to go to Dubai.

Yep afraid so.

Looks like we will have to listen in @9.30 via the link to hear any update.

If you turned the 'Self-contained contemporary cafe', into a 'Self-contained contemporary bar', it could be worth dropping in.

Prior to today, Glencore needed the assent of the ZIOC BOD before disposing of their stake. Henceforth they can dispose of it to whoever they like (as a single sale) or gradually in the market (practically almost impossible given ZIOC liquidity) on whatever terms/price they choose. Two relevant issues:

1. Elphick/ZIOC clearly negotiated this restraint on Glencore's actions as part of the overall November settlement. These clauses are not introduced, haggled over & documented for fun but for a reason. Most likely being, ZIOC wanted any Glencore disposal to be part of an agreed deal with a third party - hence a veto on an 'unagreed' deal.

2. Glencore can only secure any real value for their stake by selling it on as a strategic stake to an actual developer. But here is where the Takeover Code is critical (for us!) - no purchaser can buy their 48% stake without being required to bid for all 100% of the ZIOC shares - & any bid must be at least as high as the price they paid for the Glencore stake. So no single purchaser can buy Glencore's stake without buying out the rest of us.

So whether this has been a constraint on Glencore doing a go-it-alone deal - seriously who knows - but from today that constraint/requirement is removed. Again what the consequences are (if any) of this are, is not clear but it sure is interesting timing given this is the day of the ROC President's official visit to the UAE.

Due to the requirements of the Takeover Code, Glencore cannot sell their 48% to another entity without that entity being required to make a bid for all 100% of the shares of ZIOC. Nor can they make a bid at anything less than the price they paid to Glencore for their stake.

Dates matter, documentation matters, timing matters.

No idea exactly how the dots join together, but there sure are some interesting coincidences.

Ends today 16 June 2023. Six months after the 'Admission' of the new shares on the LSE. Is this relevant & might it affect the timing of a deal ? Who knows, but Elphick clearly wanted this lockup clause in the agreement as it is highlighted in the RNS bullet points & text. From the relevant RNS's:

23.11.22. "Glencore Projects has agreed that it will not dispose of any of the Consideration Shares in the Company in the six months following Admission without the consent of the Company" [ie ZIOC BOD]

16.12.22. "Completion of the Acquisition has now occurred and the Consideration Shares have been admitted to trading on AIM ("Admission")," [ie now 6 months ago]

Thanks MM, great stuff.

And please dont be put off my negative stuff, your supporters massively outnumber your detractors!