Member Info for Jiving

Shaun I hope all your predictions come true. They need to tie something down whilst the iron ore market is still buoyant.

Good points Extrader.

Shard. I am not suggesting they have gone rogue, but that they may have been instructed by ZIOC to raise a large chunk of cash in a hurry - hence the large orders continually taking down the bid time after time. It would represent a change from their previous practice but that could be due to a change in ZIOCs needs/instructions.

Glen. I included this really just to rule it out as a practical possibility, esp given reporting requirement. So it could be one or more of the old guard dumping or it could simply be Shard doing their job?

The share price has been driven down to levels we last saw in November 2022. It's a fair question for us to ask, & I am, as a long suffering LTH seeking an answer.

For some 6 weeks there has been a determined seller in the market who is happy to hit the bid on full virtually every day, regardless of the obviously detrimental effect on the share price. Whoever is selling has plenty of ammo & seems to have little regard for the effect of their selling including on the price/funds they get from their sales. My suggestions:

1. Shard. We know they are a potential seller as they have signed up to a 3-tranche sale subscription for 36m shares in total. Historically they have sold in small size over a long period with little tangible effect on the share price - but if ZIOC want funds in a hurry (why?) their instructions can change. Actually frankly I hope its them, as it could be for a 'good' reason.

2. Glencore. Its past the 6 month lock-up limit they agreed in the 'merger' proposal. At some stage of course they would have to report % changes. Why would they sell, disenchantment with ZIOC management or wrecking the share price to force ZIOC into a deal Glencore want from their perspective?

3. Third party. A major shareholder who has either: had enough of the endless drama/studies etc; or who knows (or think they know) its all fallen apart & we are as likely to be nationalised by Nguesso as sold for some fancy price - therefore get the hell out at any price while you still can.

I read the 3 July RNS as two separate tasks being undertaken - the port negotiations and the BFS update - with the port being at 'discussion' stage & possibly arriving first. I note that AD ports seem to be able to negotiate agreements fairly speedily, lets see what the next RNS says whenever it arrives.....

ZIOC need to announce port news asap & we would finally have confirmation we are in play. Might even help the share price, which needs it.

MM, I had not seen it before, but it is certainly fascinating. Guinea sounds a hellhole to try to do business, and the whole Simandou project was bedevilled with corruption (Steinmetzs's case failed on appeal this year). But in conclusion is it more or less likely to make Vale get involved in another giant African venture? Maybe if they can get someone else to finance it.

When I was looking into FMG & Simandou, I came across a lengthy analysis of Vale's negative experience with Simandou:

"In Brazil's corporate world, Guinea is remembered as a horror story and a lasting warning against what appears now to be Brazil's excessive corporate ambitions in Africa." Gambling with Saudi money might look a better option?

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214790X22001113

MM, especially since Forrest submitted a late bid to participate in the northern part of Simandou in 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-guinea-simandou-fortescue-idUSKBN1WM0B8

Shaun, there are many things we dont know about what is going on - both to do with Shard & more generally with regard to the project. We do know Shard have been allocated 12 million shares the extent to which it is them responsible for selling none of us know. The speed with which Shard sell is primarily dictated by ZIOC management's need for funds - do they want a significant sum in a hurry or just a drip-feed for monthly expenses like before - we dont know the answer to that & its not a given that it is simply to meet 'ongoing concern' needs; it might be, it might not be.

Currently the Glencore loan does not expire until 31 December 2023 & as of end June still had over $600k available, is that being repaid early or might the company need funds to contribute towards the new Chinese project costings - aggain more unknowns.

Similarly there may be things going on behind the scenes, but also sadly there may be nothing going on behind the scenes, all we know for sure is what we have been told in the last RNS. Like you I 'hope' something is going on, but hoping dont make it happen.

MM, thanks for your thoughts - as ever its important to stress nobody knows for sure at this time the identity of either the buyers or sellers at any particular moment.

The Shard facility remains by far the most likely candidate, as it is the only named party with both a known holding & a clear mandate to sell - that information does not exist for any other potential seller. We know they have taken the first 12m tranche in early July & have 3 months to sell - subject to variation either way at ZIOC management’s discretion/input. We have no proof either way of any other party being involved, traders likely exited in the immediate aftermath of the 2 RNSs when there was liquidity & a substantially higher price.

The previous Shard facility was essentially to cover regular running costs, which were low & involved them irregularly selling relatively small parcels of shares with little effect on the share price. But if circumstances have changed & the ZIOC management want funds quickly, then Shard would comply by selling substantially larger numbers of shares, so a time pressure ‘could’ exist. On this matter Shard report solely to their client ZIOC & have no reason to concern themselves with what a third party’s (Glencore) reaction might or might not be to share sales. Orderly market - well there have historically been numerous trading days where ZIOC volume exceeded 1.75m, a high volume day does not imply disorderly.

I have often been the other side of the market the last month, with orders at/below the Bid. So I see the scale of the selling - often taking out several price levels on the bid side on a daily basis - this is not typically how PIs or anyone with there own money involved sell shares, as it predictably drives the price down, it is usually the action of someone in a hurry.

At some stage we may get an answer in an RNS stating either Shard has sold the first tranche or a major holder has a decreased holding.

99. As far as ZIOC policy/strategy/finance is concerned the BoD determines that & Elphick has a 3:2 majority on the BoD, which is all he needs. He has control unless challenged via AGM/EGM by Glencore, but I doubt they would want to go that far as Glencore need the main minority shareholders like Elphick & friends to effect any JV or takeover in an organised fashion.

Vet. The lack of communication is horrific here, even by AIM's low standards, in the first tweet from the official account in nearly 2 years, on 24 Nov after the acquisition of Glencore stake they posted "Look forward to updates soon." Right.

MM I certainly see the rationale for why the Gulf states & others may be targeting Zanaga, and it was a scenario you played a great part in revealing. But they have not been slow in making contact with the all the parties they need to build the green steel industry, seemingly except us - of course we don\t know if approaches have been made, possibly continuing, or possibly suffered a mishap over structure/pricing? The company appears to be back to pursuing the 'China Road' and I note they refer to the possible Chinese slurry builder as a "Chinese EPC partner" (in the project presumably) not just a contractor. The news of the Vale/PIF negotiations leaked weeks in advance.

I think the case for Shard being behind the market chaos is that ZIOC signed the agreement with them on 1 July, that in turn stated "The first tranche of 12 million Subscription Shares (the "First Tranche") will be subscribed for by SMC within three trading days of the date of the ESA." So we know Shard has the first 12m shares, & the agreement then states they have 3 months to place them. There is also some circumstantial evidence that the placing/dumping activity began on Monday 17 July, around 15.00 there were 11 small (50-100k) orders going through the market very close to the mid price of 8.00, this can be indicative of a broker placing shares into client discretionary/non discretionary accounts. Finally we ended with 400k of larger orders appearing after the market closed. Since then we have had many days of over 600k of large orders going through often at or below the Bid - indicating a determined seller. I therefore think there is a strong case its Shard, but I have always emphasised that I don't 'know' that, if not then who - Glencore would be the obvious candidate but why & at some stage they would have to report; or another party - again who & why?

"C-B certainly seems to be getting (or seeking) a lot of attention these days."

Ex, MM & others - this is what I dont understand this sleepy little backwater is suddenly getting more attention in 6 months than its had in the last 30 years. But why?

And if we are potentially a part of it isn't it about time something, somewhere, registered that we are going to be a part of it? The Saudis & Emirates have a clear strategic plan for their new green steel sector which they are implementing with extreme speed & decisiveness - except for securing their own supply of essential ingredient of high grade iron ore.

Thats what it looks like to me as well Marcus, some people have sold out maybe put it into other shares & want the ZIOC price kept nice & low so they can load up on the cheap later on. Port news may well be the the turning point & 'discussions' turning into at least a 'MOU' could put us into play - and that will be an RNS dropping unexpectedly & if you are out then you won't be buying back in 'on the cheap'.

I am totally in agreement with the idea that a simple discounted placing should have happened in early July, IF the company needed a significant amount up front. It would have raised the money in one go, and once out of the way would have stabilised the share price, best for everybody. The problem we have is that the subscription arrangement is not suited for that task but is really for financing the ongoing monthly costs by dripfeeding a couple of million shares into the market per month. The problem with all low liquidity shares is when the volume of shares being sold is significant relative to daily turnover - then the price falls as demand outweighs supply.

The seller (who we assume is Shard but could be a another sizeable holder) is not currently 'placing' shares with identifiable investors but selling directly into the market to anonymous counter-parties on the bid side of the market (like me). So they dont actually know who they are selling to, I know because I am constantly collecting shares in this way. How on earth do you think the non-existent 'mates' make money in a falling market; example I get shares yesterday at 5.70p, a couple of hours later they are 4.70p - simple arithmetic should tell you I would lose money if I sold. IF you think the currently collapsed share price is a great entry ('mates rate') point you can make yourself a 'mate' by buying in the market just like I do and many others - you dont need a special handshake or a secret code - you put an order in at or under the Bid.

This is a botched equity raise that has screwed up the share price unnecessarily, but its got nothing to do with a conspiracy theory that there is some calculating scheme for passing value to 'mates' & for. which there is no evidence or rationale. That is not what is going on here. The more important point is why Elphick is raising equity finance in such a hurry when he still has capacity left with the Glencore loan, which itself runs till year end.

4kandles, nobody is getting ANY special treatment - I bought from the seller (Shard or whoever) this morning, my price was on the Bid @5.70 & was taken out along with others - & I am not 'mates' with the seller or the company. You can buy now & you dont have to be a 'mate or send a secret signal. Of course anyone buying today is happier than they would have been buying 4-6 weeks ago, I have been buying on the Bid from 8p downward & would have been very happy for all my order to have gone it at 5p but like everyone I cant predict the future. If you want some buy some at what you see as the 'mates rate' (actually the market price) then just put your order in like I did.

4kandles there is no placing going on at present, the shares are being recklessly sold into the market & have been for some time continually taking out the bid price. Nobody buying now is getting any special 'mates' price, you put your order in at the bid and you get taken out by whoever is selling (Shard, Glencore or whoever & for sure someone is selling not placing). Nobody gets any 'mates' preference as they do under discounted placings when that argument does often apply. You want to get a 'great deal' just put an order in.

4Kandles, none of us know whats going on - of course its all speculation. Elphick & Glencore were definitely in alignment up to & after the merger agreement. The Glencore offtake arrangement meant they could sell their shareholding to a third party and still have an interest over the life of the mine, so they have different interests now from Elphick. But its quite possible they have a different view on the terms of a potential sale & Elphick currently actually controls the BOD.

I dont understand the 'mates' argument as it typically applies to the placees in a discounted placing - the placing takes place at say a 25% discount, the mates get in & then sell into the market for a quick profit or hold for news. But with this subscription structure there is no big 25% discount, the shares are now just being sold into the Bid - I have bought 4-5 small lots over last few weeks, anyone can buy its not just for 'mates'. BTW the first signs of the placing took place around 17 July when the share price was 8p & there were placings into what looked like sub-accounts (of Shards I assumed) around the market mid price - any mates who got in then are suffering a huge loss. The mates argument does not fit the facts here.

If anyone has contact with AT could they please politely ask him whats going on?

I wonder if Glencore & Elphick are still in alignment, Elphick designed the merger agreement so he retained a BOD majority & effective control of ZIOC - so the actions we are seeing since 3 July RNSs may not have Glen's agreement. If this is the first tranche of the placing why is it happening so quickly & as you say IF they wanted a fixed amount in a hurry you do it via the discounted placing route not the dripfeed subscription structure.