Member Info for Jinny122

This will get takenover before any rights issues imho.

Its hard to take the rights issue seriously, they've been thinking about thinking about consulting shareholders on a RI for what seems like since the beginning of time.... and YET 4 months + later they have not even moved past first base.

Also note that second largest shareholder sold a small tranche on last announcement, seems a signal of disapproval imho. They didnt do it for the miniscule proceeds involved imho.

This has all hallmarks of buying time to see how business performs to inform a takeover price. All imho, DYOR.

Morning Zccax, Theosus

They appear very flat footed imho.

They havnt even updated their pre-covid performance targets, arguing its too soon to know if its impacted.

Reminder: pre-covid targets was entirely based on a growing economy, base rates at 0.75% minimum, benign credit quality, high risk ltv mortgage lending, huge increase in unsecured debt under assumptions of a benign credit risk environment and low unemployment.....

NOTHING HAS CHANGED it seems is the Metro mantra at the moment

..... Lloyds, TSB, HSBC, Revolut, Barclays etc etc ALL have shown more urgency and substance in their post-covid transformation plans than Metro Bank.

How can that possibly be?

Reminder of prediction from yesterday is below:

Prediction / Crystal Ball for tomorrowThu 12:47
...... The can will be kicked down the road until full year results next year to buy more time to see how covid evolves with a vaccine (expected by year end).

A few words of positive trading, but nothing that resolves the underlying issue.

SP then bubbles around nominal 5p for another 4 months.

Prediction #1 was as below, before they delayed results to 30th Oct:

RE: M&A possible ?20 Oct '20
The delays in putting out results here which were meant for mid-October, having already been pushed back from initial due date of August has all the hallmarks of playing for time and kicking can down the road to buy even more time to delay difficult choices.

Expect to be disappointed imho, 6 more months of suspense likely awaits

Nostradamus prediction #2: Will also prove correct

Nostradamus Prediction #1: CORRECT

...... The can will be kicked down the road until full year results next year to buy more time to see how covid evolves with a vaccine (expected by year end).

A few words of positive trading, but nothing that resolves the underlying issue.

SP then bubbles around nominal 5p for another 4 months.

Assumption is they delayed August's results to October to assess situation with covid to see if it improves. But timing was very unlucky as there is no certainty at the moment on covid response/impact and its getting worse.

This looks like haggling behind the scenes about standalone prospects vs. selling the business (esp. with the 29.9% shareholder now on the board). Covid may have shifted balance towards the latter option, hence last minute delays. All an opinion, DYOR.

As suspected in last message, the results are now DELAYED to 30th October. It is on their website

The delays in putting out results here which were meant for mid-October, having already been pushed back from initial due date of August has all the hallmarks of playing for time and kicking can down the road to buy even more time to delay difficult choices.

Expect to be disappointed imho, 6 more months of suspense likely awaits

Reg, agreed.

The key thing here is that the turnaround strategy has clearly failed.

The only face saving avenue left for management is to be takenover. Anything else involves continuation of the ruinous turnaround strategy.

£2 BILLION blown in 3 years with no trace, and yet company is in arguably its worst position in 20 to 30 years.

Bertles, we adjourn. Agree to disagree

Bertles, dare to dream/ hope.

Cpi generates 73% of Bab*** earnings but is a third of its market cap. Attractive choice.

Cpi is not drowning in debt at 1.9x debt to earnings. People take mortgages out at 5x earnings for crying out loud.

Cpi's debt issue is that it needs very low debt to receive investment grade ratings and thus compete for more contracts. Its financial covenants are 3.5x max debt to earnings

Wouldnt write anything off just yet.

What, rush out an unscheduled financial update just before a weekend just to try and buy a rail division from a devastated transport sector??? with yet no info on how new rail arrangements will work and with existing franchises running for at least 1 to 2 years more???? - dont buy that.

MUCH bigger plans afoot imho

If Cpi sell its golden goose ESS on the cheap, imagine what the knock-on perception will be for the values of the other 'non core' ones it wants to dispose of.

Strategically, Cpi has little option but to sell itself to highest bidder

No potentially interested acquirer of Cpi will allow it to sell ESS on the cheap.

It'll make its move asap

There was little in that Serco update that it didnt know at the end of September for example.

This makes the timing (just before weekend) and unscheduled nature of it very significant.

If I was CEO and had news like that, it'll get released on a monday or tuesday, so it has time to build market momentum before the week is out.

The tone of Cpi's last market update felt like Ceo had given up.

ESS sale failure will have been the final straw.

Reg, agree that looks probable.

Big assumption is that the leak about ESS low bids came from or was encouraged by Cpi to flush out interests or as rationale or cover to trigger plan B (a merger)