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Which may explain the 'crisis talks' headline in dailymail article, and PwC's subsequent urgent appointment ahead of year end reporting.

Laurenti, very true.

If debt is higher than management's £1.3 Billion forecast for December, (which is likely given their abysmal forecasting track record to date on the turnaround), then a combination of strict lockdown (un-anticipated by management) and loss of ESS profits could see the going concern warning retained by the auditors.

Try2buylow, spot on.

The ESS shortfall, of almost 50% (as they'll likely fall short of the £400m when all done) vs. best case expectation of £700m is cfushing.

They're receiving almost 50% less than the best case proceeds, but are LOSING 100% of ESS profitability with no plan on how to fill the void.

While at same time, before ESS sale, they were losing £100m sales per QUARTER.

Meanwhile, there is no money left to continue the turnaround plan (which they flagged is harder and more expensive than expected.

Mandatory Pensions liabilities payments also swallows up a sizeable chunk of thevpeanuts received from ESS sale.

A desperate situation to be in, after having received (and spent) total funding of £2.5 BILLION (ESS sale included) to turnaround the business. Seems a monumental waste of shareholder funds.

Market has lost confidence in the turnaround plan and the ability of current CEO to deliver. Dont forget CFO has already been removed after just 2 years.

Assumption is there are crisis talks as reported by dailymail.

The big shareholders have also stopped buying since the ESS fire sale for peanuts.

Well... they've sold £3billion of interest generating assets. The proceeds cant be allowed to sit idle, as they're still having to pay depositors interest on them but be receiving zero income.

And it'll be far too slow to build an unsecured loans on a customer by customer basis.

So... all roads point to a major transformative acquisition by Metro. That uncertainty / excitement can drive SP through the roof, especially as shorts panic

One sure thing learned from Tesla and Tech is that the market likes excitement and aspiration.

Metro SP is going to explode north imho, there is almost no reason left to justify the collapse from the 900p last seen in July 2019

Very high yielding assets, like 900% interest rates, all unsecured as Ceo wants.

Gains access to Vanquis , high yielding credit card business.

Fits with its Community Bank mission, providing credit to the under-banked segments of market.

It'll help it to work itz branch network harder, and Ratesetter can be used to reach new markets where there are no branches.

Metro, THINK ABOUT IT!!

Sales fell by £100m in just the 3 months to September 2020.

Cpi has been consistently losing revenues since 2017, and thats after adjusting for disposals

After losing £52m p/annum in operating profits and with contract losses continuing?? - by this time next year debt could be higher than today.

Afterall, after a £700m rights issue and £1.4billion in total disposals (excl. ESS) over last 3 years, debt will be higher in Dec 2020 than at starting point in 2017.

Stuff of wonder.

And they have no money left to invest in turnaround strategy, which management said was costing more than expected.

With ESS gone for peanuts, all other disposals will now be low balled by acquirers.

Thinking that Montagu only agreed to pay £280m in cash upfront because they probably feel they can get ESS for meaningfully less than management's stated 'UP TO £400m' deal value.

Huge shortfall in debt reduction, which most likely remains above £1billion after ESS sale. It was expected by management to rise to £1.3billion by December 2020.

All in all, looks like a crunch point for future direction of Cpi.

ESS sale remains subject to shareholder approval. Perfect window for a takeover attempt by any interested parties.

Galileo's profits were 2.5x that of ESS.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-galileo-m-a-exclusive-idUSKBN20720P

So ESS should be EUR 1 Billion if pro-rata applies.

Montagu & consortium partners paid $2.% BILLION to acquire Galileo Education in March 2020.

https://www.swfinstitute.org/news/77995/cppib-and-montagu-get-a-piece-of-galileo-global-education-as-providence-equity-partners-exits

Not sure how Galileo's profits compares to ESS though, will try finding out

Shiver me Timberrrrrrr!!!!!

Management & Alchemy appear to want the SP as low as possible, thats only explanation for the wording of the last update.

The only hope here rests with other large shareholders, they're key imo. And they're likely blocking / resisting the RI, hence why its still in first base since June.

Otherwise doesnt make sense to be waiting 5 months and counting to begin a lengthy process like a RI if they need the money that badly.

Maverick, correct.

But Alchemy seem to have mis-calculated, they didnt envisage the timing of covid vaccine and improved sentiment.

Seemed to me that they stood to gain more the worst the news got for NSF, as it supported argument along following lines : agree a takeover/RI by us for peanuts or company goes bust.

But NSF is performing better than envisaged, generating cash and asset prices are rising across the market.

They also didnt anticipate last minute furlough extension, which helps NSF's keep bad debts lower.

.... appears similar to that they pursued on Countrywide Plc.

Encourage management to launch a deeply discounted and dilutive rights issue and then acquire vast majority (60% +) of the business for peanuts. Leaving shareholders with a savagely diluted rump stake.

From the Times: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/walls-are-closing-in-on-countrywide-k7fzzk9h2

So...... Sainsbury's, a profitable £4.8bn behemoth cant make Sainsburys bank work but Metro Bank, a loss making basket case worth £0.16bn can????

Beggars belief - Metro's reported interest in taking over Sainsburys bank tells you all you need to know.

Lost and adrift in the deep blue sea

NSF hostile takeover offer to Provident shareholders, arguing that it has a superior and more credible management team. Loooooool

Provident today is 80x the market value of NSF, which has since been floored to the canvass.