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Hi Matt, agd.
Many thanks. Looking forward to the much anticipated sand jet flow testing.
I am invested in predator and chariot, not conflicts of interest, just looking to make money in both. I constantly recheck information as you indicated.
Jimmy
I am delighted there is a strategic review underway for the renewables.
Investors will note that despite chariot having several renewable projects in its portfolio which are in operation, chariot does not report any revenue from such source, that’s because the investments are in joint venture companies where majority control lies with total Erin. Hence the profits are not recognised till dividends are paid from the jv company and that will not occur till project debt for such projects is repaid. So although these are good projects, they have a long payback.
That compares with the very short payback from onshore morroco in the loukos licence where payback is likely to be around one year per production well, so better returns for shareholders.
Jimmy
With regard to the potential of the biogenic gas, do the calculation of gas generated from source rock, take account that a lot of gas has indeed filled the reservoirs but also that gas has seeped away, as evidenced from the gas cloud in the seismic to the east of mou 2.
There is definitely potential, but none of the experts reports, even in the most optimistic scenario of p10 outcomes come anywhere near 7 tcf.
Because there is no 3D seismic the area will require a lot drilling to prove up the higher gas volumes that are the subject of speculation on this board. So it’s very important to get into production cashflow asap and use the profits to drill out the area to prove up the higher gas volumes. I see that as a better use of funds than a new exploration project in west Africa.
The carbonate platform project is very interesting
I don’t understand why the p10 volumes of 637 bcf are based on 50 meters of reservoir when the carbonate section prognoised is 247 meters of which the bottom interesected 2 meters of which were high porosity and high gas saturation in mou 4 well, why is it not 247 meters of such high porosity carbonates?
In addition, the last experts report assigned a 12% chance of success to the carbonates, even though gas was proven down dipin mou 4 . I think I must be missing something.
Jimmy
Hi fernan.
Just to clarify the deeper sand situation at loukos.
Chariot used re processed seismic and Avo analysis and spectral decomposition of seismic to identify a large increase in anchois resources up dip from anchois 1 well, which was confirmed by the drill results of anchois 2.
The same approach is being used to drill onshore up dip from proven gas at lnb 1 to drill the next two onshore wells. In addition, the deeper 300 meter reservoir which was found in lnb 1 well has now been identified from reprocessed seismic as being up dip also and will be evaluated by the drilling of the next 2 wells.
The reprocessed seismic on page 6 of the webinar presentation shows the lateral extent of such deeper reservoir on the reprocessed seismic.
We know from the webinar that the shallow sands onshore are equivalent to the B sand offshore at anchois, and we know there is top seal and proven gas water contact in lnb 1 well, so gas is definitely going to be found up dip.
Jimmy
The deeper 300 meter sands found in lnb1 onshore the Loukas licence had poor seismic characteristics for mapping its lateral extent, hence the very small prospective resources attributed to it.
Chariot have now mapped these deeper sand below the main reservoirs in both the darfoir and Dartois prospects.
Please see page 6 of the recent exploration webinar and note the seismic signature of the deeper navette sands before and after seismic reprocessing.
That reprocessing has confirmed the lateral extent of such deeper thick sands, which is why I proposed a back of the envelope estimate for its potential. Obviously to be confirmed by drilling results.
Jimmy
Hi thebold.
Chariot have identified the deeper sand horizon on its reprocessed seismic only some of which has been received to date. They have identified the deeper zone below the main target of both of the forthcoming wells.
I expect they will want to drill both wells first, validate the gas in the deeper horizon, and then correlate the wells results to the seismic and then re map, using both Avo and spectral decomposition in the 3D seismic data to map the lateral continuity of the deeper gas reservoir. The fact that SDX drilled this deeper reservoir is very encouraging. The mapping of the shallower Avo reservoir indicates the presence of faults which appear to control the reservoir deposition fairway and I expect such fault control to prevail at the deeper reservoir also.
Chariot have identified this deeper reservoir in both its priority prospects . We know the shallower prospects have a reservoir thickness of 10.5 meters based on SDX published data, and that chariot have mapped these prospects in total at 79 bcf. So if the deeper reservoir is50% of what’s been found in lnb1 and the fault controlled area is the same as the shallower reservoir then back of the envelope pro rata that 1tcf.
For reference, anchois 1 had 50 meters of gas reservoir and anchois 2 updip had 150 meters of gas reservoir.
The drilling onshore is pursuing a similar concept and strategy, but at 10% of the drilling costs.
Jimmy
Mr plot.
Lnb1 found a deeper reservoir of 300 meters which will be drilled by the first two wells by chariot.
No prospective reserves announced, but I have estimated it at 1 tcf. Which is huge for onshore.
Jimmy
Bowsled.
The rns stated that predator would commence the contracting of the sand jet immediately after the issue of the next exploration permit.
We do not know how long it takes to get the permit issued, but I suspect that after 5 weeks since the last permit expired that he does not seem to be in a rush.
I suspect, without any evidence, that pg will want to get results from Trinidad first. After nearly three years waiting for sand jet since the drilling of mou 1 and three fundraisers to actual do the work, I just can’t see any urgency from pg to actually do what he plans in a timely manner.
I wish it was otherwise.
Jimmy
Drilling onshore will commence shortly and first well will also test a deeper target which encountered 300 meters of reservoir in the nearby lnb1 well, if successfull could transform the onshore and offshore potential
Also the npv of onshore gas reported at $3 to 5 million per bcf,
Similar geology and seismic signatures to anchois offshore, very low risk
Jimmy
I am really surprised by the current share price.
The farmout to Energean is likely to result in the following cash payments, $10 million on approval by moroccon govt, $15 m on development approval and $50 million on reduction of licence interest to a finance carried development of 20%. Total $75 million or approx 5.9 p per share plus the value of the proven gas of 20% of 635 to 1000 bcf.
Predator valued 1bcf at $2 million npv, so even at half that it’s worth an additional $127 to $200 million or 12 t o 15 p per share.
Value opportunity for investment in a fully funded company, which is misunderstood.
Jimmy
Interesting comments from GRH regarding high permeability of the reservoir.
Perhaps someone can answer this, was there lost circulating drilling reported during drilling , as I did not find that in the ITR, can someone post a reference.
Jimmy
I am looking forward to the onshore drilling.
Within chariots acreage there is a discovery of 10.6 meters of gas reservoir with porosity of 30.9% as reported at .
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SDX/update-on-drilling-operations-in-morocco-and-egypt-iqq36mk87ax3xfu.html
In addition in chariots Agm presentation clearly shows the lms discovery of proven gas onshore above which chariot will be drilling as reported on page 13 at.
https://chariotenergygroup.com/app/uploads/2023/09/AGM_070923_Presentation_Final_noapp.pdf
Then there is a possible secondary target of 300 meters also found deeper in the lms well
With a reservoir of 10.6 meters and 31 % porosity , this will flow very well, my guess, is about 20 mmcf per day per well.
Jimmy
Hi dakad,
The current testing problem seems similar to the SDX experience.
Paul has always stated that he needed to use sandjet technology to overcome the issue.
Page 21 of the ITR shows the thickness of the source rock at mou 1 and 3 so there is a huge amount of gas generated, after nearly three years since mou 1 he needs to get it done asap, and properly, no low cost short cuts,
Jimmy