Member Info for Jimmy23

The guercif licence extension currently expires on 5th March 2026 as per the 2024 annual report page 26.

The 3D seismic obligation in the current licence period has not yet been waived by the ministry and hence the licence has not met its work licence program obligations.

Jimmy

Predator timelines are frequently missed or not achieved at all, eg completion of drilling of mou2, testing of mou4, pressure build up in mou3, swabbing of mou3.

The big issue will be to get onhym to agree to waive the requirement for 3D seismic in the current licence period and to do so without increasing the financial performance bond.

It’s highly unlikely prd will have secured a farm out by February when the current licence period expires, so I expect another fundraiser before that date.

J

My view of the time lines are

1. 6 months for a data room

2. 6 months to complete legals and get approvals in morroco

3. 12 months 18 months to plan and acquire 3D seismic

4. 6 months for 3 d seismic processing

5. 6 months for 3 d mapping and interpretation

6. 6 months for well planning and logistics

Drill next 3D seismic selected target.

I am expecting a farm in partner will take over operatorship and will want 50% of the licence, in exchange for 3D seismic selected prospect to drill and test one well and a royalty on licence production.

Jimmy

Ibiza,

The website is out of date. The last update was in the interim report which clearly stated no hydrocarbon gas was found in mou5.

J

As Keith states, the unrisked valuation is £1 per share but that those “reserves” to justify that have a 25% chance of success according to a pg reference in his post.

By comparison mou 5 had an independant chance of success of 12% and according to pg pre drill it had a better than 50% chance of success. There were no hydrocarbons found in mou6.

In my view the market has moved away from valuing exploration potential on a risked valuation basis because with a 25% chance of success you would need to drill four wells to get a discovery and prd does not have the funds to cover four wells and does not have the revenues to cover its ongoing operating costs. So further equity dilution is likely in my view as prd has a history of raising funds before a well is drilled and mou6 is being planned to drill next year.

I think it’s highly unlikely mou6 will be farmed out in time for drilling early next year.

Furthermore, if the valuation of £1 per share was realistic then why is pg and the rest of the board not buying shares in the market by the bucket load. Perhaps they listened to previous ceo who texted “where is the gas” .

Jimmy

It would appear that imported gas co2 emmisions are attributed to the country of production not the country of consumption, as discussed in an Esri report.

See.

https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/WP740_1.pdf

Perhaps this explains the Irish govt decision to stop new gas licences.

I still think govt are wrong not to have issued licence to prd, but might explain the states thinking

J

The riddle is why did it take 5 wells to conclude the mud weight was too high.

After the first well they could have performed an Rft or mdt to take side wall cores, gas samples and gas pressures to validate the wireline log analysis line logs.

See.

https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/mdt1654157311pdf/254855387

For me the fact that pg and the non execs have not bought shares in the market at these relatively low prices and that prd are pivoting to South America says a lot.

Jimmy

The key message in that rns is that the mou applies to Southern Africa, not just South Africa, so that likely includes Namibia.

Jimmy

Clearly you have not heard of mdt.

Pity prd did not do that and perhaps onhym would then have allowed prd to declare guercif a gas discovery.

J

Tebold.

The anchois field has has extensive sidewall cores and gas sampling and pressure testing that are generally accepted as sufficient to prove gas along with very clear wireline logs over large reservoir intersections that do not need specialist interpretation that requires validation by flow testing as is the situation in guercif.

That’s why onhm allow chariot to declare anchois as a gas discovery, unlike guercif.

Jimmy

No mention of Morocco, of course, but there is mention of gas to power.

The anchois field development needs an offtake contract and guaranteed gas price in order to secure bank project finance, so there is a deal to be done here.

Longer term, chariots block with back in rights in Namibia, block 2714, has identified a 7tcf gas prospect after drilling its k1 well all those years ago. Now that would transform South African gas to power.

Jimmy

Pr d claim against the Irish govt for failure to issue an exploration licence will claim for reimbursed past costs and lost value.

Since prd had secured a farm out partner, the lost value would be the value attributed to the carry amount in the farm out.

J

I really like the south corrib prospect, and no doubt prd have been treated appalling by the Irish authorities and they do have a case.

However, it’s an exploration prospect and hence cannot be valued the same way as discoveries that have multiple wells but denied an opportunity to develop such discovery.

In my view, the biggest winner will be the lawyers.

J

The problem with farming down, is that prd have an obligation to acquire 200 km sq of 3D seismic by 4th February 2026, which as yet has not been waived by the authorities. So the licence has not met its work obligations.

So a farm in party is unlikely to farm in while the licence obligation is unmet .

Because of the default of the work obligations, the authorities may request a larger financial performance bond to go into the next phase of the licence.

This will be a real test of how good the relationship is with onhym who are about to become a separate legal entity.

J

Pwooly.

The 5th February 2026 licence stage expiry was stated in the last annual report.

Prd have not yet got an extension to that date.

If so , please state the prd reference.

J

The mou5 well was completed on 12 March 2025.

The interim report stated the licence situation as.

“ On Completion of the MOU-5 well it was intended to use the discretionary well to extend the First Extension Period to 5 November 2026 and to re-negotiate the remaining 3D seismic commitment to defer into the Second Extension Period and/or convert into a 2D seismic reconnaissance programme.”

Nearly 8 months after the completion of mou5 there has been no update on extending the current licence expiry of 5th February 2025 and a roll over of the 3D seismic obligation , which is a licence obligation default at this time.

Hence my comments about the likely need for further funding before 5th February if the licence is not extended.

Jimmy

Colon,

The last update on the licence was page 26 of the last annual report, can you identify an update since that time.

J

Predators guercif licence extension matures on 4th February and at the moment the obligation to acquire 200km sq of 3D seismic has not been achieved or the obligation waived by the authorities. Don’t expect mou6 to be drilled till this is sorted.

The last Itr reported that the next licence extension is expected to require 400 km of 3D seismic and one well to 2750 meters.

In my opinion this is likely to require a larger financial performance guarantee , hence a fundraise before February 2026.

J

On page 26 of the last annual report the licence situation is discussed.

It appears that the first licence extension was to 5th February 2026 and this included the shooting of 3D seismic.

Predator are hoping that the drilling of mou5 can replace the obligation to shoot 3D seismic. However there is as yet no confirmation that this has been accepted by the licensing authority.

A suggested further extension of the licence by 8 months to allow time for an application for a production concession is now looking unlikely as no gas flows have been demonstrated.

Unless Onhym extend the licence expiry of 5th February 2026 then it’s likely a new financial bond will be required for the next licence period.

J

The question I am asking is has the licence obligation to shoot 3D seismic been replaced by the drilling of two wells been accepted by the licence issuer?

Or is this still to be decided by the authorities?

J