RE: RE: So is the point here that....12 Nov 2021 00:38
Hi LW
This forthcoming well is going to be very interesting. Unlike previous chariot exploration wells we are starting from a position of knowing with certainty where the gas is and where the reservoirs A, B, C and M are. As we are drilling up dip into these reservoirs we know with certainty that gas will be found in reservoirs A and B. The drill bit will tell us if the quality of reservoirs A and B are as predicted, but it will find gas. This is very low risk drilling. Each reservoir has a separate gas water contact so the results in one sand reservoir should not influence the outcome of the next deeper reservoir.
The next prospective reservoirs C &m have been encountered in the discovery well but had water. The prognosis is that up dip they will be in gas. Only way to find out is to drill.
Since the distance from the Top of the A sand to the bottom of the M sand is only a few hundred meters this is likely to be drilled in around two or three days. So I think it’s likely these will be drilled regardless of the upper sand results. The only reason I can think of not drill those C & M reservoirs if there is unexpected very high pressure that caused a drilling problem, but while that’s a drilling and safety issue, it’s actually good news in such exceptional circumstances.
So that then leaves the significant O reservoir target, higher risk because it was not drilled in the discovery well and higher risk as it’s a seismic interpretation that it’s a large prospective reservoir in an anticline. We know there is a gas source rock to charge the reservoir, so the risk is actual reservoir there as predicted. Got to drill to find out.
That’s a long winded explanation as to how I view the likelihood of drilling deeper. So what could go wrong.
Most likely it’s about running out of money , in my view. If the rate of drilling has to slow down because of a high mud weight is required for drilling safety , then it’s highly likely to drill at least A,B,C and M sands.
The chariot drilling manager has achieved very fast drills previously, so I think there is a very good chance that the O sand will be drilled.
From a shareholder perspective, they usually announce the arrival of the rig on site and that drilling has commenced and indicate the number of days to reach target depth and complete wireline logging before results are announced.
The reality is a small number of people will have a pretty good idea as to whether this works as predicted, in almost real time.
Directors have a legal obligation to make sure there is not a false market in a companies shares, in my opinion, the way to address this matter is to release regular updates to inform the market. That’s what’s required in Australia and it should be considered for this well, particularly taking account of the long memories of the long term shareholders.
Jimmy
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