Member Info for Jimmy23

All that’s needed is for the proven gas sands to find gas in the A and B sands updip with 100% chance of success and we have a commercial pathway to cashflow. That’s the base case everything else is upside.
Jimmy

I think the problem is that because of climate change there is almost no media commentary on oil or gas exploration and hence little retail interest in the sector as it’s not green and could be considered as damaging the environment , even though the problem is coal and gas displaces coal.
Regarding the green energy project, I understand the concepts but have yet to fully understand the economics and there is liitle detail published on the subject as to how it will compete against fossil fuels.
Because of past exploration failures the II are not involved in daily trading of this share, this I expect to change once it has a pathway to cash flow after t he completion of these wells.
Jimmy

Oracle power listed on aim which is a mineral exploration company with no revenue, little success in exploration and has signed a co operation deal with a Chinese power company to look at developing a 400 mw solar power plant in ****stan to generate 150k kg of hydrogen per day . Market capitalisation is £11.3 million .

The chariot project is 10 gw which is 25 times bigger than the oracle power 400mw project in ****stan. To pro rata adjust the oracle power valuation of £11.3 million to chariots 10 gw project at a similar stage of feasibility study only would put a valuation per chariot share £0.36 per chariot share.
This is roughly comparing like with like and is not a project valuation but a comparative valuation that the market is making of a green hydrogen feasibility study.

They are due to complete the feasibility study in q4 21.

Hi. SF
The latest corporate presentation on their website, page 13 shows the time lines of all the activities
Anchois 1 first then anchois 2
Jimmy

Another oil guy on another site estimated about 10 days drilling to get to the A and B sands and a goal of twenty days to get to the O sand.
They announced they would issue rns at conclusion of anchois 2 well, i would guess in 22 to 25 days, then rig moves to anchois 1
Jimmy

Not a lot of new information. In the new presentation on a first reading . Interesting to read that there is scheduled to be an announcement of a new gas production opportunity in Q1 2022.

J

90,000 mcf per day is £146 million revenue per year net to chariot at $8 mcf
Stena don on location , get ready for spud announcement
J

Just been looking at the forecast production level, previously presented in the June 2019 corporate presentation. Daily production from A and B proven sands was calculated at 70,000 mcf per day which increased to 90,000 mcf per day when production from the C sand was added.
If the O sand is gas bearing then this could increase I estimate a further 40 to 50% .
Based on the gas sales heads of terms of $8 per mcf, this could be a substantial revenue generator.
Has anyone noticed?
J

Obviously difficult to know why Stena don parked for a few days. One possible reason is that rigs usually undergo a safety inspection before entering new territorial waters for drilling.
Anyhow, it looks it like will be on station in a few days so spud announcement this week, I would guess.

If the O sand has proven gas then I would expect the daily flow rates to increase , assuming the o sand is completed with separate production tubing.
While the o sand is an exploration target, we know that the structure is initially a four way dip anticline, the source rock is proven so it’s all down to the reservoir quality and that’s where the seismic signature of proven gas in the discovery well indicates a good reservoir, got to drill to confirm but we will know the results in a few weeks.
J

The market cap of chariot is actually less than five months revenues from anchois proven gas sands. Correction.

That should read O sand proved by the anchois 2 well

The drill results will drive the share price. Chariot is drilling into proven gas in the A and B sands which they have stated has an npv of $500 million and huge upside with the deeper sands as well.
Chariot have been very brief about their intent to re enter the anchois 1 well, I suspect to be both a producer in the A and B sands and my guess is also to be a producer in the Deeper O sand if it’s proven by the anchois 1 well.
All going well, chariot could have two completed by end of January or early February to used as future producers, leading to a fast time to first production revenues .
Chariot recently reported that they are planning production at a rate of 70,000 mcf per day , that’s $420,000 revenue, net to chariots 75% per day for over ten years. That’s based on the heads of terms contract price of $8 per mcf.
Hard to believe that chariot is currently valued at approx one years revenues.
This share is ready for a re rating .
That excludes the upside value of the other gas targets or any value for the green hydrogen projects.
Jimmy

Stena don located now off south western Portugal.
Not long to go to a two well program in proven gas for production and huge exploration upside.
J

Stena don rig has just entered Portuguese waters,
J

Daily production of 70000 mcf per day at $9 per mcf is a revenue of approx $230 million per year, so capex payback will be very fast.
Thinking some more about this, increasing daily production to 70,000 mcf per day will also increase the profits during the first ten years which are tax free, hence further adding to the previous npv valuation of $500 million.
I have not done all the calculations but if we add $100 million to the valuation then despite the extra dilution these values add approx £0.10 per share to the proven value of the and b sands from the recently diluted value of £0.37 per share ( from 45) to £0.47 per share .
Happy Christmas and a prosperous new year!
J

The re.entry of the discovery well as a potential producer will maximise production volumes from the A sand for production and save development costs at a time of low rig rates.
. I would add that the npv of the A and B proven sands would also increase post this drilling, because the capex to provide two production wells will have been completed by this drilling program, the discount period to first production will now be very short and using a 10% npv discount rate will no longer be appropriate as the cost of finance is likely to be a lot less than 10% and finally this means that the risk of further equity dilution for field development is taken off the table.
I am not sure if the final field development with manifold and pipeline could be completed by a sophisticated service vessel, if so then further capex savings, perhaps the drilling experts could advise.

Finally, with gas prices in excess of $8.00 an mcf , particularly in Europe the Npv value should increase, as well the fact that daily production volumes have increased from 53,000 mcf per day to 70,000 mcf per day .
There are so many improvements in the post well drilling valuation economics I need to model this over the weekend, but i would guess we are adding at least adding another $100 million in post well drilling value.

And then there is the footnote that funds will be used for another African gas production opportunity which will be debt funded, sounds like more good news soon.

J

The fundraising book results will be announced at 07.00 that’s where the Ii have been hiding, no wonder there was no share price take off, at least we now have a floor price.
J

£31.8 k of turnover in chariot , tiny volume on a day when the rig is mobilised.to drill proven gas of 361 bcf and nearly another 600bcf of exploration potential in a single well.
Clearly the II have not invested yet, watch the volume for indications
J

I note that AP said they will update market as appropriate, a change from previous years when they said update at conclusion of drilling. Perhaps the message has got through.