RE: Presentation27 Jan 2022 08:50
I have reviewed latest well results presentation and compared it to the pre drill prognosis and estimated . Firstly the initial well results Rns stated no water was found in the initial analysis of the data and we now know there was water in O sand which was compartmentalised and there was a second gas water contact in the b sand no 2 which was a new reservoir.
Obviously my 2C estimates of reserves are back of envelope , so here goes.
1. A sand as per prognosis 114 bcf
2. B sand per prognosis 247 bcf
3. B sand no 2 new reservoir 80 bcf.
4.C sand per prognosis 164 bcf
5. M sand very much thicker reservoir increased to same as C sand , 164 bcf
6. o sand reduced to nil for 2c calculation.
Total 769 bcf estimated 2c
However, the o sand has been derisked down dip with a high chance of success , however because it’s compartmentalised I have reduced the reserves to 200 bcf based on spectral decomposition , chance of success 64%.
There are an estimated up to five additional very thin gas bearing sands below log resolution. The lateral continuity of the sands needs to be established by further seismic analysis in order to add reserves, alternatively they need to be verified to logs at the anchois 1 well. While there is proven gas here I can’t attribute a reserve, possible upside 30 bcf because the porosity and permeability are so good.
The pre drill prognosis for anchois north and O footwall was approx 450 bcf, we can now add reserves for the c, m sands, new estimate 600 bcf.
Increased chance of success to 75%
This is all good news and definitely commercial. Obviously to be audited.
The presentation described the development as likely to be a three well producers. This makes a lot of sense as the reservoirs to the north are thicker . My guess is that a likely field development would be as follows.
Anchois 1 , produce from a , b sands, and be deepened to produce from the O sand.
Anchois 2 , produce c and m sands.
Anchois 3 , produce from A, B , C M and O .
The production profile described in the presentation was initially at between 50 and 60 k mcf per day. Then increasing after year 3.
My reading of this is use the production cashflow in years 1 to 3 to repay debt and use surplus cash to drill anchois north prospects of 600 bcf derisked and to deepen anchois 1 to produce from the deep O sands.
Big increase in reserves and production without shareholder dilution.
Jimmy
Sign In
Follow the stocks
