Member Info for JimiHendrix

I believe the Genedrive POC test will be used to test the 35,900 non-minor strokes per year, as currently there there isn’t the infrastructure for labs to handle anything extra, they’re already over capacity.

“The committee noted that compared to no testing, CYP2C19 testing after a nonminor stroke generated more net monetary benefit than testing after a minor stroke or TIA”

“ The committee also agreed that point-of-care testing should be considered as an alternative if laboratory based testing is not feasible at this scale, or for use while capacity for laboratory-based testing is increased.”

The AIHL recommendation was conditional on evidence generation. The stroke marker will be full recommendation plus they’re working with the NHS to release a plan for how testing will be rolled. There’s no way the labs have capacity to handle even the non-minor strokes (they’re already over capacity) so it is highly likely the Genedrive test will be used, as per draft guidance… when lab testing isn’t available the Genedrive point of care test should be used.

That doesn’t even take into consideration the turnaround time aspect.

Genedrive's market cap was between around £20m - £40m just last year, from the end of January until around June. So I believe 5p (£27m) is easily achievable this summer with the NICE full recommendation and details of NHS rollout, expected at the end of this month.

I think it’s likely that the method they use to notify people universally is through their website. I could be wrong but it’s possible that when they said “you” they actually mean everyone who is interested rather than you personally. They may have received quite a few emails from genedrive shareholders.

Clearly they’re not going to sell at a loss with a lot of positive news in the pipeline. I expect them to sell a small amount whenever there’s a surge in the share price and volume.

I think they’ve sold about 5% of their holding since the placing, so not much.

Thanks, didn’t realise that.

They wouldn’t need to declare again until 25%.

Seems they suddenly acquired 19% in one go as there were no TR1s for breaching the lower thresholds. This makes me think they took part (or a wing of PH) in the REX offer perhaps. Then after receiving their shares they increased their holding to cross the 20% threshold.

That’s my take on it.

If they breach 30% a mandatory offer is required which will need to be voted in and accepted by more than 50% of shareholders I believe.

Regarding 19.5p being highest price paid in previous 12 months and the equivalent considering dilution being 3.5p, this doesn’t take in to consideration that they now have £6m in the bank, considering that… the price may be calculated at a higher price.

Relentless buying the past couple of days. I don’t think Peel are accumulating that quickly (if they are at all) the last TR1 shows them crossing the 20% threshold, the next would be 25% so it’ll be interesting to see if/when they cross that.

Are there any clauses that exempt them from having to make a mandatory offer if they cross the 30% threshold at no lower than the highest price paid in the 12 months prior to making an offer?

“when an investor acquires interests in shares and, following such acquisition, it and its concert parties together hold 30% or more of the voting rights of a company, the investor must make a cash offer to all other shareholders at the highest price paid in the 12 months before the offer was announced;”

Highest price paid in the past 12 months was 19.5p… hypothetically speaking if this is their intention and they manage to reach 30% by the end of the month (before NICE news) the 12 month high will be a bit lower around 16p… I imagine most shareholders would be happy to accept an offer at that price.

Could they simply be holding shares on behalf of other investors, as in a nominee account? Or perhaps Peel are holding the open offer shares that have not yet been received by some brokers?

All 1.45 and above were likely buys.

Those were all buys. The share price will likely stay firm around this level or slightly above imo, until the run up to NICE news when I wouldn’t be surprised to see 3 - 4p.

1.5p will become a strong support level... Only bad news will take it significantly lower imo as very few will sell at this level with likely good news around the corner.

Consolidation, I hope not as the result is usually an effective drop in shares value.

Roger, that’s what I keep wondering… why have they imposed a minimum amount or nothing policy? The only rationality in that for me is if they have a plan B organised that will also give them the minimum amount but just at worse terms (more dilution etc).

My only concern is how quickly some brokers will allocate the new shares. If some get them immediately and sell (assuming price above 1.5) and others have to wait a week it’s not going to be very fair.

That said I would have thought most people will hold at least until the NICE news July 10th for a bigger profit.

9/10p is my initial target, I do think it will go higher next year though. Possibly higher this year if stroke marker test sales to the NHS get under way quicker than expected.

The mcap was stable around £25m to £50m for long periods of time last year and the previous year, so I don't doubt that we'll be at £50m (9p) again this year with stroke marker NICE guidance, further go live sites for AIHL, stroke marker CE-IVD submission and lots more to come...

From memory, 9p will equal about £50m macp with the total shares in issue (approx 550m) so 4.5p = £25m and 2p = £11m.

Anybody voting against the Open Offer must be out of their mind imo, or doesn't fully understand the consequences.

With the news anticipated in the coming weeks and months I'm expecting the market cap to be pushing towards £50m by the end of the year which will be huge upside from here and particularly for 1.5p placees.