Member Info for JimiHendrix

The info I have is from the December presentation which confirmed it is “on track” for April.

All eyes are on the pilot study implementation guide at the moment coming April. I'll stick my neck out and say there won't be any placing until they know what's in the implementation guide.

Remember in the previous 2 years they raised funds a month before they were due to run out of cash. This year they are in a stronger position, any one can figure out they have cash until the end of the summer and significant further revenue on the horizon. If they did a placing now it would be bazaar and out of character.

I am denying it's required, if in April the implementation guide presents a functioning service model based on how the pilot has been study then around a third of the UK market will be using Genedrive POC (£3m per year).

There's also special commissioning currently on track for MT-RNR1 and potential ME and EU sales for CYP2C-19 before cash is currently expected to run out somewhere between around mid-August to end of September including Scottish income.

The stroke pilot concludes within 11 days...

* Design Phase (October – November 2024)

* Refinement and Pilot Setup (December 2024 – January 2025)

* Pilot Monitoring and Evaluation (February – March 2025)

...will provide a functioning service model that combines laboratory and point-of-care genetic testing . This will be the first step towards a nationwide service, informed by front-line needs and requirements. These requirements will be shared through the implementation guide as well as inform commissioning decisions. These outputs are anticipated to be delivered in April 2025.

It's bound to rollout either before or the same time as Scotland.

Most of it Gloria... for starters, NICE (National Institute for Health and Care Excellence) makes recommendations, not approvals, for the use of interventions, within the NHS, based on their clinical and cost-effectiveness.

CYP2C-19 POC has full recommendation and MT-RNR1 has conditional recommendation providing a period of evidence generation is completed which they are already 6 months in to (max 18 months) and the team can submit evidence early if they are satisfied.

Regarding the negative staff comment... the following is what they said they would do and indeed what they are doing and note the "increased our commercial team in the UK and distribution network in the Middle East" and "reduction in the level of cash burn" expected as they convert pipeline.

"operating expenses are currently running at around £0.5m per month and are expected to be maintained at around this level pending increased commercial traction. To help achieve this we have increased our commercial team in the UK and distribution network in the Middle East and we are generating revenues from routine use of our tests on a small scale, but have a pipeline of opportunities that, if converted, would see a significant step up in revenues during calendar year 2025 and a reduction in the level of cash burn."

What you’ve said there about NICE Stocksaint is completely untrue and you know it. They have also increased the number of staff as they said they would. Derampers still saying anything just to try to push the price down so they can buy slightly cheaper. They’ll be caught out at this rate.

Actually I believe last year the consensus was they had funding until the end of May, I'll check my notes later.

The question then was whether they were going to draw down any more from Riverfort which they decided not to. This year the funding situation is clearly far better. People that are spreading fear about a placing are likely short term traders looking for the cheapest possible price to buy in to maximise their profits.

The fact is the company does have cash to mid-Aug including tax credit and 500k from Paloh-UK. Now, if you include income from Scotland which will be received well in advance of October and potentially very significant income from UK rollout that I think we'll hear about in the interims or April when pilot results published, then it naturally pushes cash runway towards the end of the year. Add 5 new NICUs taking up AIHL and stock renewals from existing hospitals and things start to look quite rosy. I haven;'t even mentioned special commissioning (on track) so I'm not concerned about cash at the moment.

I'm not entirely ruling out the possibility of a fundraise ever again but I think if they needed to do one late Summer / Autumn it would be a small amount to tie them over for a few months and by that time the share price could well be much higher than at present (imo).

Last year the funding was due to run out in May and they announced at the end of March that they would need to arrange a fundraise. A fundraise was later announced around the 9th May, just a few weeks before they would run out of cash. The same the year before.

This year though we have cash until around September not even including potential huge income from further UK rollout likely to be announced in April. And it doesn’t take into consideration that the monthly cash burn will be reduced (as per their comments in December).

So concerns about funding are premature imo, the situation is clearly significantly better this year compared to previous years.

Less than 2 weeks now until the stroke pilot finishes, the conclusions from this with us a clear picture of how much initial income we'll receive for the stroke marker test in the UK. As I mentioned before, almost a third of the number of people that are covered by the pilot are using the POC test. If that's the model that gets rolled out, then that's approx £3m per year plus approx £8.5m per year for AIHL. So based on that, £100m mcap (x10 income) is easily possibly over the next 12-18 months, a shareprice around 20p.

England will want to rollout no later than Scotland imo.

Actually total value of UK market for AIHL is £8.5m and another £8.5m for stroke marker. You might have old figures there Franky.

Total global market is £320m so the analyst figures below, whilst seeming unimaginable from the current share price are certainly not outside the realms of possibility. I think £100m market cap will be reached in the next 12-18 months but let’s see.

Sorry Franky, I was in a hurry! I think we’ll see a lot more commercialisation in April. Scotland income alone won’t be enough but combine with the rest of the UK and well things will be looking excellent!

Commercialisation has already taken off, keep up.

I think that 500k trade was a buy at that price, some real tricks today. But a firm base is being built, weeding out the weak hands before I expect a big move up.

Placing unnecessary as clearly they are gaining commercial traction and running cost will go down, plus they’re currently funded until September at least not including anticipated April news…

“ The Group's operating expenses are currently running at around £0.5m per month and are expected to be maintained at around this level pending increased commercial traction. To help achieve this we have increased our commercial team in the UK and distribution network in the Middle East and we are generating revenues from routine use of our tests on a small scale, but have a pipeline of opportunities that, if converted, would see a significant step up in revenues during calendar year 2025 and a reduction in the level of cash burn.”

Historically they’ve raised a month before they run out of cash. Currently it looks like they’ll have cash to September and the meantime we may very well see the full UK rollout for the stroke marker test plus they said monthly cash burn will reduce in 2025 as they convert their significant pipeline. So personally I think I would miss most of the action if I waited to see if there was a placing at the end of the summer.

Those were all guys so far this morning showing as red until the last 2 at 1.86. Market makers forming support and trying to accumulate shares imo, there hasn’t been any significant selling the past few trading days.

My expectation is Genedrive POC will be used for TIA all across the UK announcing April and they’ll either match Scotland on the October rollout or pip them to the punch and do it earlier :)

I think the central policy way is changing… “Against a backdrop of increasing paradigm shifts from treatment to prevention and speedier, less centralised diagnostics, and also recent UK government announcements to abolish NHS England…”

This might explain it…

“Overall NICU admission rates increased by 37% from 2008 to 2018”

I’ll dig further later but seems likely they’ve simply taken the lowest figure from a historical period (from 3000).

I understand Brighton are testing all neonates admitted to neonatal units.

Well it says “over 3000” for a start not 3000 and from googling it’s easy to see there are approximately 5000. All the babies who need it will get it in the name of equality.

It’s probably because they’re using the minimum total admitted to neonatal care over a long period, maybe looking at the past 25 years (I’m researching to find the historical figures).

But for example if you look on this site they begin by saying “over 90,000” for the total in the UK and then further down the page they have 100,762 plus Northern Ireland which is recorded separately at about 1851… so about 102,613 for 2016 which is 8 years ago.

https://www.bliss.org.uk/research-campaigns/neonatal-care-statistics/statistics-about-neonatal-care

The average in Scotland appears to be 5000 and I’ll dig out the historical data when I have a chance later, as I bet there’s a a couple of years where figures were lower and some years higher, which will explain why they’ve put “over 3000” :)