Member Info for jimie

I thought it might be worthwhile looking at what OAP breakeven price is now. They have subscriped/purchased a total of 539,666,810 since August 2022 costing £24,961,000 (approx.), so 4.625p. Significantly lower than mine, but they have doubled down on the latest placing. It would be foolhardy for me to do the same! I think they may have had a holding before Aug'22 but not large.

One thing that puzzles me - They have 100 sales reps (sometimes people leave and so on), but mostly around 100. They are nearly two years into targeting the top 12,500 HCP. So each sales rep (average) has 125 HCP to target. Anders mentioned in the last presentation that they will be targeting the 'expanded market' that covers 6m rx per annum in a couple of years. I know very little about drug sales reps, but shouldn't they have visited/contacted all these HCP by now after nearly two years?

Also, regarding the net price.

Q3 was $167 overall. But Sept & Oct was $192.

So, for simplicity if we divide the 43,500 rx equally into 3 months (14,500 a month). That would mean 29,000 Aug & Sept at $192 = $5.5m, and July ($1.7m / 14,500) was a shocking $117!

I didn't understand the whole Summer Buying Pattern excuse when they announced it and I still don't now.

But they was nothing in their update that said it was a random event unlikely to be repeated. So we can expect the same for this summer?

Still long, not sold a single share, but being realistic in the challenges they face this year.

HarChris, I think that is why OAP didn't rule out further fundraising

(Following the date of Subscription Admission, AOP will work alongside the Board to review the business of the Group, with a view to ensuring the ongoing business operations are increasing the Group's revenue and improving its performance. As part of this review, the Board and AOP may also consider whether further capital injections are required).

The hope would be by then that they can finally prove sales traction, Net Rx has stabilized $220-$250 and they are very near to breakeven and can raise at a higher SP and limit the dilution. But that hasn't happened yet (each share issue has been at a lower & lower sp).

I think OAP will implement a change to the sales team structure and their proprieties. Maybe they will pull out of under-performing (lower populated states) and re-distribute to key areas, such as New York, California etc and double down on them. Only a guess on my part.

HarChris, I believe Shield need $3.3m a month to breakeven. So using a 45% profit from their net sales (COGS, 5% royality etc) that would equal 85,000-90,000 rx per quarter @ $250 average

LWHL

Please can you explain what you mean regarding this " Especially given the particular part of the RNS that mentions retail participation versus non-retail participation"? I can't see this anywhere on the RNS?

Thanks,

Lets hope so Shandypants2. I think you are a long term holder here like me, although I don't very often post.

They are still going to do some impressive revenue growth during 2025 to get us to breakeven.

I feel it hinges on 'word of mouth' spreading to get that proper sales traction. Even Hardman's mentioned they still need to see the full impact of the 100 sales team.

I think they need US to pull in approx. $8m (before Viatris split etc.) a month revenue to break even. Or 41k scripts a month @ $195 average. Does this sound right?

Obviously, the sales growth has not been what they expected. But I do wonder the reasons for this?

a. Demand for the product is smaller than expected.

b. Product is not a massive improvement for those struggling on traditional iron oral

c. Too expensive/not enough insurance coverage

d. HCP don't like being sold something they haven't heard of and 'word' has yet to spread

Opinions?

Q4 TX growth will be key.

Quarterly Tx increases have been a follows:

2023 Q2 +4450, Q3 +8350, Q4 +5350

2024Q2 +7600, Q3 +7100

Following the release of 24'Q2 results, Hardman had forecasted Shield achieving 173k total in 2024. But that means they would need an increase of 20,800 over Q3 (64300) in Q4, which I think is very unlikely indeed.

More likely they will end the year with 110-120k. This is what they had originally hoped for in 2023, so you could say they are a full year behind.

But getting 5000-7000 extra tx each quarter would mean it will take an age to get somewhere making a decent profit.

Unless Q4 or Q1'25 is when we finally see sales traction???

Thank you Frankie1x,

If we hadn't had the recent poor showing of TX numbers and the further dismiss of the share price, I would have read that as very positive. Unfortunately, all it does for me is underline that sales elsewhere or somewhere siginficant is going very badly. The sales trajectory curve is very much not taking off the way the board envisioned.

What an earth must OAP be thinking now? Where they as gullible as me? Is there some great master plan that I can't see?

Oh, for a buyout at 6-10p!!

I just cant get my head round why the prescriptions growth has dropped off so badly in Q4. This was supposed to be when the 100 strong sales team got bedded in properly and would be running at full speed. Yet they managed a 4.8k increase in Q2 over Q1 (when the full team had not even been hired & trained), yet only 5.3k in Q4 over Q3. Or to put it another way, each sales rep (on average) contributed to an additional TX of 17 per month. Which just seems shocking, no other word for it. Comparing Q3 & Q4 2022, there was a 26 tx increase per sales rep (as I understand they had only 25 reps at that point), without the new marketing campaign and strengthen sales management team and each rep covering a smaller area (thus having a more targeted approach). I bet some reps are doing much better than 17 per month, which means some are probably contributing to single figure TX growth. Something has/is going wrong on the sales front. Lost a lot on this one and still holding 3/4 of my original investment. My fault (although CEO has a lot to answer for!), but I just didn't see sales growth slipping this badly.