Risk v Rewards30 Sep 2016 12:56
Point here is most posters are not trying to paper over the very clear risks. But find a stock with apparently zero risk and they still drop a black swan RNS on you and you're still screwed... Risks are part of the game.
The upside to balance those risks is clear, and I feel it is the de-rampers who are papering over the upside rather than us trying to pretend this is risk free.
Tranche 2 production requirement is 1,250 tonnes over 3 consecutive months. The current refurbished "pilot" concentrator plant at at Lohorano is capable of 600tpm - Tranche 2 criteria equates to 416 tpm.
So it's not as if we have to achieve the impossible with a single plant there. All we have to do is run consistently at 70% of capacity.
So yes there is a risk we won't reach tranche 2. But it isn't a risk I'd want to bet against - not here, not anywhere. It *should* be a given. ESPECIALLY because there is no quality criteria attached to it, especially given Shishir is consulting on this and has been striving for extremely high quality output if you read the BSM disclosures in the prospectus and supplements.
There will be a point where the tuning is optimal and they'll then just run the plant.
In the very small unlikely scenario we can't get Tranche 2 using the original plant, there's a second 12,000 tpa plant being built.
It is inconceivable we won't get our Tranche 2 shares IMO. It's just a question of when - 2016 or 2017.