focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Good thread, China ain't holding back. (Might need a big battery or two.)
https://twitter.com/LHongqiao/status/1376950682213699587
Opportunity knocks possibly......
https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/new-independent-utility-emerges-to-pursue-private-to-private-power-niche-2021-03-30
A great find from BBN once more. BMN appear to be partners with Rongke/UET for the BESS bids with BMN providing locally sources electrolyte and spares.
https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1376822710345535488
https://tenderbulletin.eskom.co.za/Tenders/Docs?TENDERID=46852&Folderid=51035
SDL&I BBBEE.zip
Please bear in mind that this is always a messy time of year with people tidying up for tax purposes. Be that taking some profit or locking in a loss to offset against profit elsewhere. This can be forced or strategic and may not be related to the company fundamentals at the time. I suspect Fortune will have something to say shortly as he will need to spark some positivity to attract investors at the round tables and finance house visits. Next week new tax year, hopefully maintenance at Vametco done for the year and V price starts to rise again as Chinese steel squeeze tightens. GLA
Gambit, I am aware of that but it just means that the stockpile wasn't sold during the month it was produced so better to average over time. I am deliberately being conservative as too many people are setting what I believe to be unrealistic expectations which give the naysayers a field day if not met. (I spotted one of my mistakes already, should be 47 not 45 weeks for 35days maintenance downtime.) Stick with the under promise and over deliver mantra and we should fare a lot better.
Not sure how this will format but here's a stab at 2021 and 2022 possible profits with V at $30 - $45. Happy to be corrected.
2021 Prod and costs from full year results (median figure taken for both)
2022 Estimates: Vametco 2021 Prod x 52 weeks instead of 45 due to 7 week shutdown. This may be higher in actuality after the work. Vanchem guesstimate up to 2000MtV using Kiln 3 and Kiln 1, also may be conservative.
C1 = initial production costs.
C1+$5 is my stab at including the additional deductions per kg after production costs.
2021 Prod (kg) C1 kg $30 $35 $40 $45
Vametco 2,775,000 20.65 $25,946,250 $39,821,250 $53,696,250 $67,571,250
Vanchem 1,450,000 26.45 $5,147,500 $12,397,500 $19,647,500 $26,897,500
Total 4,225,000 $31,093,750 $52,218,750 $73,343,750 $94,468,750
2021 Prod (kg) ( C1+$5)/kg $30 $35 $40 $45
Vametco 2,775,000 25.65 $12,071,250 $25,946,250 $39,821,250 $53,696,250
Vanchem 1,450,000 31.45 -$2,102,500 $5,147,500 $12,397,500 $19,647,500
Total 4,225,000 $9,968,750 $31,093,750 $52,218,750 $73,343,750
2022 Prod Est (kg) C1 Est/kg $30 $35 $40 $45
Vametco 3,206,667 19 $35,273,333 $51,306,667 $67,340,000 $83,373,333
Vanchem 2,000,000 22 $16,000,000 $26,000,000 $36,000,000 $46,000,000
Total 5,206,667 $51,273,333 $77,306,667 $103,340,000 $129,373,333
2022 Prod Est (C1+$5)/kg $30 $35 $40 $45
Vametco 3,206,667 24 $19,240,000 $35,273,333 $51,306,667 $67,340,000
Vanchem 2,000,000 27 $6,000,000 $16,000,000 $26,000,000 $36,000,000
Total 5,206,667 $25,240,000 $51,273,333 $77,306,667 $103,340,000
Lucan,
I'm not sure all of those are sells. I suspect the following are mostly buys today based on the trades before and after, some well buried.
2021-03-24 16:27:31.630 17:09:19 (GBX) 17.4 250,000 43,500.0 Off-Book AIMX LRGS
2021-03-24 14:22:10.177 15:14:09 (GBX) 17.24 303,633 52,346.33 Off-Book AIMX LRGS
2021-03-24 14:00:05.190 --:--:-- (GBX) 17.25 390,000 67,275.0 UT AIMX
2021-03-24 13:35:12.637 14:31:41 (GBX) 17.2 250,000 43,000.0 Off-Book AIMX LRGS
2021-03-24 13:10:40.110 14:04:51 (GBX) 17.09 150,000 25,635.0 Off-Book AIMX LRGS
2021-03-24 12:35:22.633 13:35:09 (GBX) 17.125 150,000 25,687.50 Off-Book AIMX LRGS
2021-03-24 11:19:33.160 --:--:-- (GBX) 16.875 137,116 23,138.33 Off-Book AIMX
Seems to be an exclusive private market when they take the SP down, buys(25k max) and sells (200k max) throttled. Yet when the SP resurfaces there have been a number of loosely matched large trades. Possibly short covering from an available source of shares or maybe someone building a position while quiet. Should all work itself out shortly ...hopefully.
"According to Guidehouse Insights, flow batteries are anticipated to see the greatest decline in costs over the next decade. Li-ion batteries have the second largest decline, followed by zinc batteries and thermal storage solutions. Flow batteries are expected to see the greatest decrease in levelized cost due to the expected substantial decline in CAPEX."
https://guidehouseinsights.com/news-and-views/key-long-duration-storage-technologies-to-watch
Libero, I applaud your consistent positivity. I too would prefer to see investors and potential investors contact the company directly before creating unfounded negativity here but sadly the investor relations desk (contact us) is very hit and miss. I deal regularly with Chika and most of the time I get what I ask for in the end, almost always after having to send chasers after totally unjustifiable delays in answering. The BMN II desk also does not acknowledge receipt of queries which combined with not answering for some time gives the impression (at best) of being unprofessional and at worst very rude. Neither of which is going to go down well with a prospective (or existing) investor. This is definitely an area that needs urgent attention. I don't think this is all down to Chika as I believe she has to get clearance before responding to most queries. I've sent a chaser today for a query I sent last Monday regarding the validity of the "Meet the Company" tweet, innocent enough requiring a yes/no answer. Hopefully something back soon.
I strongly believe in the growth story evolving here but do think that the company needs to improve a lot when it comes to PR and investor relations.