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I'm hoping Marcello Ebrard gets the Moreno vote, but the current leader is Claudia Sheinbaum, she has been vocal about lithium!

yesterday:

“Here in Sonora, in addition to the highway from Guaymas to Chihuahua and the modernization of the port, there is one of the most ambitious projects in the world, the Sonora Plan, which is based on the nationalization of lithium, which is a very important mineral that Sonora It is blessed with mines, that is why nationalization guarantees that it will not be taken abroad but rather for the Mexicans, that companies that manufacture batteries and electric cars are installed, that universities are found so that national scientists can develop this process, for That is why the Sonora Plan is not only the future of the State, but of the entire country,” Sheinbaum said.

Add to that the person who was supposedly negotiating the concessions with Ganfeng Raquel Buenrostro:

https://ampvideo.bnnbloomberg.ca/mexico-names-tax-hardliner-buenrostro-as-new-economy-chief-1.1829499

And the challenge that Ganfeng will also be facing is summed up here:

The arrival of another ally of Lopez Obrador on the scene will not necessarily change the broad direction of the talks in a government where the president exercises absolute control.

“No minister of AMLO’s has been capable of making him change his opinion, especially when it comes to question of recouping state power of the energy sector,” said Joan Domene Camacho, senior economist at Oxford Economics. “There have been two economy ministers, and there have already been three finance ministers.”

Nothing from Ganfeng for so long!

Mexico joining BRICS - of course that might well have implications for Ganfeng if it did happen.

https://youtu.be/vdEBUUlgN9g?t=180

Summit in SA on 23rd - but DYOR there's a great deal of misinformation floating about.

Litio'MX nearly a year since being established and questions are beings asked!

https://www.motorblog.com.uy/automotriz/mexico-recibe-inversion-en-vehiculos-electricos-pero-no-en-baterias-de-litio/40/

In Mexico, there are no companies that manufacture batteries for electric vehicles, which represents a significant gap. Some experts believe that Tesla could play an important role in this field, bringing the technology to the region or producing the batteries themselves, as they have done in other markets.

Meanwhile, in the United States, companies like Albemarle Corp have boosted their profits on growing interest in lithium, a metal used to make batteries. Albemarle supplies lithium to companies like Tesla and Ford. Other companies, such as Panasonic, have expanded lithium battery production in partnership with Tesla. Honda and Hyundai have also invested in battery plants in the United States.

In Mexico, however, the situation is uncertain regarding the origin of the batteries that will supply the plants that already produce electric cars or those that will do so in the future. Although the country has drawn up a strategy for electric mobility, reaching the proposed goals is a challenge. Domestic lithium production remains a distant goal due to modest investments and the performance of the agency in charge, LitioMX.

The National Electric Mobility Strategy contemplates that by 2030 half of vehicle sales in Mexico will be electric, but this goal has been viewed with skepticism by the Mexican Association of the Automotive Industry. In contrast, countries like the United States have allocated large resources to promote the production and purchase of electric vehicles.

In conclusion, the United States leads the electric vehicle industry in the region, while Mexico faces challenges in the production of lithium batteries and in reaching its electric mobility goals. The lack of local lithium production makes it difficult to establish an electric battery industry in the country.

I don't see why Ganfeng would strike a deal with the present Mexican administration given the likelihood of the reforms being deemed unlawful - still the biggest loser will be Mexico - IMHO

Short term pain, long term gain:

https://www.neomaterials.com/hastings-and-neo-sign-non-binding-heads-of-agreement/

The Agreement provides a framework for both parties to negotiate a binding offtake agreement for the supply of up to 70% (approximately 25,000 tonnes) of the annual concentrate production from Stage 1 of Yangibana. The 10-year initial term would commence with the production of Stage 1 concentrate (from Q1 CY2025) that would be processed into MREC by a third party. It would continue until such a time as MREC is produced by Hastings at Stage 2 of Yangibana, when the offtake agreement is expected to evolve to supply up to 10,000 tonnes per annum of MREC.

Might be slightly subdued?

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/lynas-rare-earthss-fourth-quarter-revenue-falls-47-2023-07-30/

Prices of rare earth minerals have declined over the last year because of increased supply from top producer China and soft demand from green energy companies and automotive sector.

Not going to plan, what did they expect, Alfonso Durazo convinced Da Luna to build their plant in Hermosillo with all sorts of promises:

The nationalization of lithium has made private companies reconsider their investments around the lithium deposits in Mexico. De Luna Lithium Battery, which would invest 80 million dollars in the construction of a lithium battery processing plant in Sonora, decided to relocate the facility due to delays in permits and in the selection of land to install it.

Giovanni De Luna, CEO of the Mexican firm, explained that the plant will be moved to the center of the country and will start operations using imported lithium. "I have expressed it to Pablo Taddei (director of LitioMX) in letters and publicly: I would buy lithium carbonate from them to produce batteries if they already had it ," he asserted.

The situation occurs in the midst of the change towards electromobility in which lithium batteries for electric cars are essential and in which, an industry based on the whitish mineral, would come to boost the economy, even more so in the case of Latin America, according to with the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean.

“I have had conversations with Pablo Taddei and they are working hard, but I think that time is still running short , because they are a 'Pemex' and require much more investment,” added De Luna.

According to the Organic Statute of the state company, its resources will come from the allocations in the PEF and from its own activities around lithium. But this capital is still far from being materialized , since the presentation of the results of the new exploration phase by the SGM will end until the last stretch of 2024.

Now will the autocrat give in to the narcissist - same person different character traits the autocrat has screwed up with Pemex and the mining laws so looks like lithium is going that way - will he want some credit for a Mexican lithium industry being developed - will Ganfeng just sit back and wait for his term to end - Or ill they get the assurances they need?

Giovanni De Luna was all for Litio 'MX taking control of the lithium concessions!

Some big lithium deals being signed in China, CATL 41,000t hydroxide from now until December 2025, Tesla up to 310,000t hydroxide between now and 2030 both from Yaan Lithium,

Liontown will start DSO, just a reminder how quick these operations can be revenue generating:

https://www.ltresources.com.au/latest-news/liontown-moves-forward-with-dso-opportunity/

Not forgetting the Albemarle off being declined, EG1 must look attractive for a TO or perhaps sale of Bynoe?

Well with CXO planning to make a decision in March next year on the mine and the confidence in the ANT survey.

Perhaps along with the PFS 600 pages plus and the gigabytes of data the interested parties are studying it may also be prudent to buyout the stockpile giving the banks a one off payment - as is well known now the banks dictate the sale of the stockpile.

Could be conditional?

You don't post on companies that have a positive track record, well at least under SOYO__

Well @Soyo

I hope Ctag does come good for you after six years of suspension and then perhaps you can deal with your bitterness and get on with you life, I would give up investing if I were you.

Core:

https://mining.com.au/core-lithium-commits-up-to-50-million-for-bp33-mine-development-in-the-northern-territory/

The company says subject to the timing of the wet season in the Northern Territory and modelled geotechnical and groundwater estimates, it expects to complete the early BP33 works before the end of March 2024. Core is targeting a Final Investment Decision (FID) for the BP33 mine around this same time.

Looks like BP33 is the sweet spot in CXO's area, an interesting diagram on page 2 showing EG1's area on BP33 with the high concentrations, I wonder how that stacks up against CXO's 10.1Mt:

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-quarterly-activities-and-cash-flow-report.7502986/

BP33 is one of Core Lithium’s major lithium deposits, located contiguous, and along strike to EverGreen’s Bynoe Project.

On 6 March 2023, Core reported “BP33 Mineral Resource More Than Doubled”. The BP33 MRE is now 10.1MT @ 1.48% Li2O2. World class drilling intercepts exist at BP33 including 107m @ 1.70% Li2O, as announced by Core on 16 January 2020 “World Class High-Grade Lithium Intersections of 107m @ 1.70% Li2O at Finniss”.

That could become one large mine!

China's gasoline demand could peak as early as next year as EV sales soar

https://cnevpost.com/2023/07/28/china-gasoline-demand-could-peak-as-early-2024-ev-soar/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Halt - typo

January 12th

https://apnews.com/article/metals-and-mining-mexico-government-caribbean-city-023409f2830f7fc453e190cf69c30cc3

López Obrador said that “one or two” companies had started projects, though they had not obtained all necessary permits, such as for water use of environmental impact statements.

He said the government is “seeking to reach an agreement with them” to accept the new framework. But he acknowledged the matter may end up in the courts.

“The lawyers are looking into it. We are going to talk to these companies, but the concessions have not been legalized,” the president said, vowing that “we are going to defend what belongs to the nation” if the firms take the case to court

The way I read that is like the mob - they don't have the pemits

January 25th

https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/mexico-negotiating-recovery-of-sonora-lithium-concession

"Lithium belongs to the nation, it belongs to Mexicans, but there is a company that had some exploratory work in a very small, very limited area, so we're trying to reach an agreement with them to avoid starting a legal process – an agreement, a conciliation," AMLO said in his morning press conference.

I think Ganfeng might have expressed their disagreement over those few days.

And still nothing from Ganfeng - but let's be honest $1bn-$3bn could be spent elsewhere if needed and stalling any lithium industry in Mexico with the SA countries signing deals with private companies must be exposing the govs incompetence.

A_L.O, doesn't like the possibility of international courts:

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexico-set-offer-vulcan-390-mln-buy-land-settle-spat-2023-07-27/#:~:text=MEXICO%20CITY%2C%20July%2027%20(Reuters,to%20resolve%20an%20ongoing%20dispute.

Mexico set to offer Vulcan $390 million to buy land to settle

"If they care about climate change ... they shouldn't reject the offer we're making," the president said, adding that if an agreement is reached, the company should suspend its lawsuits against Mexico.

Litigation is stacking up and Pemex is an absolute car crash under A_L.O - Litio 'M X' seems to have come to a grinding holt.

Ganfeng must be the best way forward for A_L.O to leave office with credibility for launching the lithium industry?

Very quiet on Sonora,

2006

An Inconvenient Truth is a 2006 American concert film/documentary film directed by Davis Guggenheim about former United States Vice President Al Gore's campaign to educate people about global warming.

2019

Our house is on fire': Greta Thunberg, 16, urges leaders to act on climate

2023

UN chief Antonio Guterres said the planet is entering an "era of global boiling".

Scientists agree the extra heat is mainly linked to fossil fuel use.

US President Joe Biden described climate change as an "existential threat" and that no one "can deny the impact of climate change anymore".

Some experts believe that July might well be the warmest month in the past 120,000 years.

Waiting, yes still waiting!

waiting at security at the airport, then in the departure lounge with one eye on the departures board just hoping there's no delay, eventually it's time to board, you get strapped in and the cabin crew go through the pre-flight drill, still hoping there's no last minute delay, eventually the cabin staff are instructed to take their seats, the engines thrust and and you feel the rumble of the tyres on the runway, still waiting for that feeling that you are in the air -

Some on here make out they are still stuck in the departure lounge,

Https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/core-lithium-short-sellers-hit-jackpot-on-volume-delays-20230724-p5dqts

Core Lithium’s plan to develop multiple small, adjacent mines will take longer than expected to deliver, sparking a 15 per cent slump in Australia’s second most shorted stock on Monday.

Core announced in March that the resource at BP33 was much bigger than previously expected and said on Monday it would spend more time studying the transition from its first mine, Grants, to BP33.

The two mines are just 4 kilometres apart and Core said the studies would consider “the potential to recover ore currently not in the Grants mine plan”.

Sonora, Morena party

Ebrard is ahead in the polls, I hope he gets the votes because I don’t believe second favourite Claudia Sheinbaum will be for private investment in energy related to Mexico

https://www.bnamericas.com/en/analysis/how-the-2-frontrunners-to-be-mexicos-next-president-would-impact-energy-policy

Ebrard is seen as a pragmatist and has avoided commenting on thorny energy issues. Instead, he tried fostering international collaboration and preventing international arbitration over energy policy after the US and Canada filed complaints.

Sheinbaum, who holds a PhD in electrical engineering and has conducted research on energy efficiency, supports a constitutional reform that would make public utility CFE the main electric power generator, a role it played before the 2013 energy reform.

She seems to follow in A_L.O’s footsteps

https://www.puntoporpunto.com/reportajes-2/reportajes-en-punto/claudia-sheinbaum-oculto-compras-publicas-mientras-que-alcaldias-abusan-de-la-adjudicacion-directa/

The Government of Mexico City under the administration of Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, today Morena's candidate for the Presidency of the Republic, added four years without publishing complete information on the public purchases it has made, warns the Applied Investigation Unit of Mexicans United Against Corruption and Impunity (MCCI )

https://twitter.com/Claudiashein/status/1569872718866321408

The creation of LitioMx is of the same magnitude as the creation of Pemex, just as important. With LitioMX he makes us Mexicans win wherever we see him. I tell you more in my video column.

Claudia Sheinbaum, resigned as head of government of Mexico City and later confirmed her candidacy. She enjoys the support of high-ranking members of the governing MORENA party such as Governors Layda Sansores of Campeche and Alfonso Durazo of Sonora.[7] Former Governor of Tabasco and former Senator Adán Augusto López

We will know in September:

Mexicans won’t choose their next president until next year but arguably the most consequential decision ahead of the vote will be announced on September 6. That’s when governing party Morena will reveal which one of its contenders will compete to succeed President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Often referred to as AMLO, the popular leader is limited by the Constitution to serve one, six-year term. Still, the fate of his legacy-focused movement, known as the Fourth Transformation, may lie in his successor. Given that Morena has steadily outpolled the opposition, whoever wins Morena’s selection process will be the candidate to beat when the June 2, 2024 elections come around.

I would hope the supreme court nullifies the mining laws but what will follow with the results in September could be decisive for Ganfeng -

https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-contenders-mexicos-2024-presidential-vote

Interesting to see the consequences facing the Mexican Gov might become:

https://mexicobusiness.news/professional-services/news/potential-us-retaliation-energy-matters

Consequently, the US and Canada consider these measures a clear violation of the principles of "National Treatment" and "Non-discrimination" outlined in the USMCA. In July 2022, the US initiated a consultation period on this issue, which precedes arbitration. However, an international arbitration panel has not yet been established.

The problem arises considering that the US has a greater presence in Mexico's energy industry than Mexico does in the US. Consequently, the US would likely focus on suspending benefits (increasing tariff quotas) for products that it imports most from Mexico, such as beer, tequila, avocado, tomato, raspberry, capsicum, beef, strawberries, bakery and confectionery products, train carriages, cars, and auto parts.

Tariffs on these products, or others of similar importance, would be raised to compensate for the damages caused by the measures taken by the AMLO government against fairness and equity in the electricity market. Some experts estimate these damages could reach up to $2 trillion pesos ($117 billion dollars), considering the investments made by individuals to compete in the electricity market.

Or better still Pemex