Member Info for jimb2

For anyone that hasn't been following, someone has been attempting to form an alliance with Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia to develop lithium - hence my first post with this thread title:

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https://www.archyde.com/argentina-prepares-a-great-jump-with-lithium-experts-assure-that-it-could-take-the-floor-from-chile-economy/

And although Chile has one of the largest lithium reserves in the world, above its neighboring country, according to experts Argentines could fight the market due to the projects and investments it is promoting.
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And now Chile has rejected nationalising lithium - this has totally weakened A_L_'s position and together with his attempts to ignore trade agreements plus backing the wrong side in the Russian Ukraine conflict could prove costly.

it's not going to happen in Argentina either:

https://www.archyde.com/argentina-prepares-a-great-jump-with-lithium-experts-assure-that-it-could-take-the-floor-from-chile-economy/

And although Chile has one of the largest lithium reserves in the world, above its neighboring country, according to experts Argentines could fight the market due to the projects and investments it is promoting.

- interesting times ahead

Courtesy EMH BB posted by iplitigator:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/15/chiles-constitutional-assembly-rejects-plans-to-nationalise-parts-of-mining-sector?CMP=share_btn_tw

Indeed @EV_Bull,

Its not that easy getting a project off the ground:

https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/empresas/2022/05/12/gobierno-tardara-20-anos-en-extraer-litio-advierten-especialistas/

He warned that even after investing millions of dollars, many companies are not successful . Such is the case of the Canadian company One World Lithium, which in January of this year announced that, due to low exploration results at its mine in Baja California, the company no longer had an interest in that salt flat in Mexico.

https://oneworldlithium.com/projects/

The Salar del Diablo is 4 million years old and was not a closed basin until recently, so the lithium ions were swept downstream and out of the basin. During the four hole diamond drilling program, 18 samples were taken and analyzed and the 18 samples contained less than 5 ppm (parts per million) of lithium or simply stated; the samples did not contain lithium. OWL released the sample results on January 04, 2022

https://www.archyde.com/argentina-prepares-a-great-jump-with-lithium-experts-assure-that-it-could-take-the-floor-from-chile-economy/

Hopefully, A__O will see sense:

April 28, 2022
“They are thinking about doing a joint job” with Chile, Argentina and Bolivia, said the president of Mexico in the last few hours in relation to lithium, a mineral that was nationalized in his country.

The president of Mexico, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), announced this Wednesday a meeting with the governments of Chile, Argentina and Bolivia after the reform that last week nationalized lithium in his country.

Well, having sold 3% of my all-time max holdings a little while back, I tried to get back to that level today, but another stock I hold was an NT, so l I'll bide my time.

I see some frustration is setting in but personally, I'm just slightly disappointed with the Sonora situation as I thought the timing for Ganfeng to make a move is upon us, now it appears someone has aspirations to become the emperor of the Americas -

https://www.paudal.com/2022/05/11/amlo-white-house-responds-to-the-president-about-the-summit-of-the-americas-we-have-not-sent-the-invitations-yet/

Punching above his weight, or maybe he has oligarchs/Putin backing like Trump?

Always worth looking at recent news on Asian Metals, things are scaling up at a tremendous pace another $10bn development plus plenty more in the tens and hundreds of millions for battery production and battery materials.

https://www.asianmetal.com/Lithium/

https://www.asianmetal.com/news/1806914/Chuneng-New-Energy-launches-construction-of-150GWh-lithium-battery-industrial-park-project-/1

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I hope Ganfeng makes some noise soon on Sonora.

BYD announced that its New Energy Vehicle (NEV) sales volume grew up by 313.23% YoY to 106,042 units in April,
compared with 25,662 units in the same period of last year, and the total NEV sales volume so far this year was 392,371
units, up by 387.94% YoY.

Well they have ditched ICE, they also produce their own chips and batteries.

Another big investment in Europe VW 10 billion euros

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/volkswagen-invest-10-billion-euros-112030077.html

Seems there's no end of news with $5bn plus investments across battery and EV production all dependent on lithium supplies.

Well,

for those with short memories, I'll stick with the handful of amateurs on here now proven to be remarkably closer than the analysts!

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/morgan-stanley-claims-lithium-price-plunge-45-2021-power-more?articleId=6375049628567502848

And where is the market now?

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unfortunately, the Sonora situation needs to resolve for Ganfeng to get underway with their new production targets and for factories to begin construction.

Worth a read if you haven't seen it before.

https://newsrnd.com/news/2022-03-15-ganfeng--%22we-are-going-to-continue-in-sonora-because-the-laws-of-mexico-allow-lithium-to-be-exploited%22.rJfzAYYpZq.html

“Our plan is to have a company that dominates the entire lithium value chain in Mexico: that not only includes the mine, but also the production of batteries and their recycling.

We are the only company in the world that combines lithium mining, mineral processing, battery manufacturing, cells and battery recycling”,

Another Tesla plant:

https://electrek.co/2022/05/03/tesla-turn-shanghai-into-worlds-largest-vehicle-export-hub-factory/

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@Barksy1, sorry to hear of MR B's health scare, a blessing we have medical advances that treat such conditions.

ATB

@observer842, I wonder how the order books are looking with the ramp-up in EV's and Wind energy as those j curves are becoming everyday news with massive investments in the energy and transport disruption:

The world's number seven producer plans 20x capacity by 2026:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/EV-battery-maker-Envision-AESC-to-build-2nd-plant-in-U.S

With plans for additional factories in France, the U.K. and elsewhere, the company aspires to expand its global capacity to 300 GWh a year by 2026, which would be 20 times the present scale.

Bigger battery packs - more lithium and reduced charging times:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_d3NJk3vvRU&ab_channel=AboutCars

There are plenty of others coming to market with improved range and short charging times from several manufacturers, the end of ICE is a reality!

That Lake resources deal is Japan's Hanwa and not Chinese and hence why the deal might be related to the situation in Mexico.

https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2022-04-01/lake-resources-in-non-binding-offtake-mou-with-hanwa-co-ltd

Hanwa is considering a meaningful equity investment in order to build a solid and sustainable partnership with Lake Resources as well as other potential financial supports, such as a prepayment on offtake, trade financial facilities and project development supports.

I wonder why they didn't commit more to Bacanora as was the initial intention?

Indeed @Zoom56,

EM's ambitions:

https://www.makeuseof.com/what-teslas-new-texas-gigafactory-means-for-the-cybertruck-and-tesla-semi/

but overall EV sales are gaining pace, 23% new car sales in the UK and similar in China:

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/04/24/china-electric-car-market-reaches-26-plugin-market-share-in-march/

those j curves are forming - well EV sales, lithium costs, and demand are with the supply curve lagging behind for many years to come.

Re Ford,

I don't believe they have enough supply at hand:

Ford has signed a non-binding off-take agreement with lithium producer Lake Resources. The agreement provides for the delivery of about 25,000 tons of lithium per year from the Kachi project in Argentina.

https://www.electrive.com/2022/04/25/ford-signs-lithium-supply-agreement-with-lake-resources/

However, it is not clear from Lake Resources’ announcement when a supply to Ford from the Kachi mine could start or the financial scope of a potential binding supply agreement. For Lake Resources, this is the second letter of intent on the Kachi project; China’s Hanwa Group also wants to purchase lithium carbonate from Lake Resources.

Will Biden's Made in America likely make that expensive to import compared to Mexican lithium and Hanwa have done the same, non-binding agreements at the moment, makes you wonder if perhaps these deals were done to cover any shortfall from the intended supply from_______________

I hope Ganfeng takes this to international courts rather than trust _ _ _ _ he seems to be working off Trump's playbook by changing governmental responsibility and appointing people who will support policies (regardless) plus attempting to change constitutional laws.

GLA

https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/breaking-ground-opportunities-mexican-lithium/20680/

'these reserves have a total value of $22.6 bn' blimey and to think EM is willing to pay double that for twitter!

Oh well, maybe 1% of Sonora will do for our JV's so $226M, or maybe some might take @observer842's figures at 3.6% attributed to KDNC.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/teo9dk/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals_asset/

those figures do look realistic @observer842!

I have posted recently where it was stated Ganfeng has 93.44% ownership so does anyone care to account for the 6.56%?

https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2022:newsml_L2N2WJ080:1-ganfeng-lithium-s-hk-shares-at-5-week-low-on-concerns-over-mexico-project/

https://www.plenglish.com/news/2022/04/24/previous-presidents-of-mexico-ceded-lithium-mining-for-100-years/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=previous-presidents-of-mexico-ceded-lithium-mining-for-100-years

It indicates that the largest lithium deposit in Mexico known to date and cataloged as the prospect with the largest mineral deposit in the world, will be exploited by foreign companies until the year 2115, according to that concession.

well back in 2010 who was interested in lithium?

I would imagine integration with other projects could be either processing other production into lithium products or perhaps batteries - looks like a massive investment and Ganfeng is key to the Mexican lithium industry:

https://miningmexico.com/sonora-lithium-cumple-con-todas-las-leyes-de-mexico-ganfeng/

Ganfeng Lithium assured that the Sonora Lithium project is in compliance with all applicable laws, regulations and amendments to the laws in Mexico.
The Chinese lithium giant guaranteed that the project will bring enormous benefits to Mexico in terms of employment, regional development and integration with other lithium extraction projects. Likewise, the company indicated that they are open to working and cooperating with the Mexican authorities to finalize the project.

“Ganfeng looks forward to working with the government and authorities to continue their investment; which is subject to all applicable laws, regulations and modifications for the benefit of all Mexicans”, highlighted the company.
Additionally, the mining company analyzes the changes made by the Mexican government to the Mining Law and its potential impact on the Sonora Lithium project.

“We continue to believe that this project will bring enormous benefits to Mexico in terms of employment, regional development; integration with other lithium extraction projects for the automotive industry and additional tax revenue,” the firm said.

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I'll add powertrains to that and there can be very little doubt given the surge in demand for EV's that Sonora isn't already a deal waiting to be signed for a complete EV infrastructure and likely for more than one manufacturer. IMVHO

50kt/pa - conservative?

If I were Ganfeng I would insist Sonora is kept private and have independent discussions about any further development areas.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/mexican-president-urges-energy-lithium-firms-talk-government-2022-04-20/

"I can't turn a blind eye, I'm not going to do it, but I also don't want criminal lawsuits to come first. The first thing to do is sit down for dialogue," he said.

Ganfeng should see through this and either get the go-ahead or straight to the courts, AMLO is pursuing more gas, oil, and coal usage -

Perfect storm:

Despite the firm facing higher costs, profits at Elon Musk's electric car company soared to $3.3bn (£2.5bn) in the first three months of the year, as customers proved willing to pay more.

The firm's deliveries were up 68% - and would have been higher if not for supply chain shortages, the firm said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61170691

End of ICE!

Well, as expected

“I can’t turn a blind eye, I’m not going to do it, but I also don’t want criminal lawsuits to come first. The first thing to do is sit down for dialog,” he said.

Mexico’s contentious moves to change the power and lithium sectors have been criticized by business groups and the United States, Mexico’s top trade partner.

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/mexican-president-urges-energy-lithium-firms-to-talk-to-government

https://www.wsj.com/articles/rivian-ceo-warns-of-looming-electric-vehicle-battery-shortage-11650276000

Deja Vu

https://www.bestmag.co.uk/pm-scraps-czech-lithium-mining-deal-go-it-alone/

We've been here before!

I think a safe bet is to accept they are going to review the licenses etc, now would be a good time for Ganfeng to release some plans and perhaps release news restricted under NDA's if there is any that can be.

Worth a read:

https://www.mining.com/mexicos-lower-house-backs-lithium-nationalization-plans/

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) said on Tuesday that all lithium contracts would be reviewed, partially contradicting previous comments in which he promised not touch licenses already granted to private companies, provided exploration work has already begun and all license requirements have been met.

I was expecting Mullins58 to post his usually on the ball with Mining.com

Well the week is certainly bringing the news flow I was anticipating and what a position to be in across all the assets with the SP not seemingly factoring Sonora - I believe that's a general opinion?