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The RNS was based on tripping the 5% - not all bought on a single day.
But I agree that much buying, even over a few weeks must have been a major support to SP - certainly better than the DEC BBs.
Perhaps knew what was going on with JAM and held off on the BBs accordingly.
From their website: "Jupiter is a specialist, high-conviction, active asset manager. Our purpose is clear – we create a better future for our clients and the planet with our active investment excellence."
So are Jupiter's active experts better than Voleon's AI Bots? Looks like Jupiter have convinced themselves there are no emissions / plugging concerns with DEC and that DEC are good for the planet. Just need to convince everyone else now.
I'm guessing GG doesn't work on Jupiter's investment team despite his insider knowledge of falsified reserves / production numbers / buying at spot to satisfy hedges.
Not sure his competence is worth discussing - he’s not going anywhere anytime soon so DEC’s future and his are wedded together.
More important question for me is what will it take to get SP over the £11 price? Next trading statement? Shift in gas prices? Reduction in interest rates? Increase in BBs? Decrease in debt levels? More acquisitions? Lower decline rates? Disappearance of emissions concerns?
PP - I’d argue that the BoD do have a significant impact on sentiment, which as you say, in turn impacts share price.
Repeatedly saying one thing then doing another does not improve sentiment:
- no more fund raises by dilution
- will keep the dividend at a fixed percentage of FCF
-will commence massive BBs
- will buy your shares at 105% if SP if you forgo the dividend.
All promised, none delivered. Hence the sentiment!
How long do you intend including the dividend? It’s gone - let it go. The share price is exactly what is it today.
If you want to talk about total returns over time then fine but the share price is what it is.
So if Genel pass the oil to KRG who then pass it yo SOMO who then sell it on behalf of Iraq and pass a little back to KRG it seems likely that not only will IOCs be producing oil with a huge delay in payments but not much of the cake left for the IOCs who actually provide the investment, the knowledge and the oil!
Time for IOCs to get a better deal or just halt production and call their bluff.
Notrex,
I think our views on BBs differed in a few respects.
- when they were first mooted I thought that the price was too high and DEC's cashflow wasn't sufficient to do meaningful BBs without borrowing (which would have made debt figures worse - potentially scaring investors and would have incurred 10% ish interest) .
- I haven't seen any compelling evidence that BBs support the Share Price for any company (it's very difficult to identify cause and effect in the wider market). At recent price levels, buying back shares to save dividend and as undervalued assets would make much more sense than an (illegal) attempt at share price manipulation.
- I'd rather money "returned to investors" was actually returned to me then I'll decide what to do with it!
Now they have spare cash (saved from dividend) so can buy without borrowing and price is low then crack on - but do it sensibly during price falls, not every day, at the same time, at the same level, irrespective of share price action.
Looks like it's only 3750 shares each buying day, in a single transaction each time. This appears to be irrespective of share price, shorts increasing or wider market conditions - hardly an intelligent approach requiring a highly paid broker acting on your behalf.
So if they're trying to make the best use of cash lying about they aren't doing very well waiting for further SP rises are they?
If they're holding until they think SP needs support then again - not best use of money.
If, as others have intimated, the BB is just a bluff and they'll actually use the money for acquisitions then OK (I'd prefer that), but once again Rusty not delivering on his public strategy leading to questions over trust.
Damn - seem to agreeing with Notrex again!!!
Skier - the huge Peel Hunt BB you quote as your No 1 driver has actually been just 2 single transactions since 19th Mar!
One on 5th April for 3750 shares @ 970
The second on 8th April for 3750 shares @ 1003
They're not exactly throwing all the saved dividend money at this are they, about £75k in total so far!!!!!
Interesting to see the market reaction to XD day for a variety of traditional income shares.
Think the evidence is all there that at present share prices for traditional dividend payers doesn't move much (in fact most have fallen over the last 5 years).
More and more investors seem to think that the best way to make money is no longer hold and wait for the dividends but to get a bit more active with the buys and sells.
As an example, I missed out on a 22p Aviva dividend but sold at 496 a week or so ago and bought back in yesterday at 460 - so 50% more than the dividend alone. See my post of 10 April so it's not hindsight trading.
Think this explains why the price immediately before XD day no longer rises as much as it used to (lots of sellers in the run up to XD).
Is buy and hold dead? I think with FTSE now only back at levels from 5 years ago it might be (I know we've had COVID, Ukraine and high interest rates on savings). You might need to think / deal accordingly!
Orbi - if you’re not sure whether you get a dividend buying on ex dividend day it’s probably best to do a little research begire you spend any money.
The stock market exists to separate stupid people from their money…….