Member Info for JiffyBag

For me, it was just a fun exercise to do, and we will have to see what information actually transpires, ie $450 or $700 per Unit (Not necesarily per ounce could be equivlaent ie Cu + Au, who knows?, as to HOW BERENBURG HAVE ARRIVED AT $228M FOR THE 5%?)

Hi Walkabout,

I fully acknoweldege your rationale etc,

My question though is can you show how one might arrive at a BB valuation of their 5% interest , using $700 for BB's $228M value?

It would of course have to be based upon a lower resource level etc. I am sure that I have read on this Board that some analysts are currently predicting circa 10m + ounces as of now. At the end of the day Berenburg do not I believe, have any more info that you or I do, most particulary when it comes down to the valuation of the 5%, because if they did! their press releases might well be undermining official GGP releases etc??

For me, it was just a fun exercise to do, and we will have to see what information actually transpires, ie $450 or $700 per Unit (Not necesarily per ounce could be equivlaent ie Cu + Au, who knows?)

Merc,

It would be fantastic if someone could actually short JPM, just a dream I know, but it would be so satisfying to watch them burn. :O)

Spade,

Just to add, I trust you can follow my logic?

Hi Spade,

No fuss from me,I am only going on what information has been released so far :O)

Let's hope you are right and I am wrong:O)

Hi Walkabout,

I am not using the current PFS/ MRE figures for they are way way out of date now.

I am basing my calcs on what Berenburg have declared as a valuation for the 5% , and so to me it suggests a resource figure of at least 10M Ounces at the very least.

Re: Cannot see how you have arrived at a valuation of the 5% in all honesty at this point in time of £500Mn or was it $500M as that would equate to 20 X $500M (5%) = $10 BN?

And that would equate at this point in time, to some 22.22M ounces in total at $450/In Ground Ounce. :O)

Do we think that there are 22 Million Ounces there now?

Hi Spade,
Just my musings / rough calcs
My starting point for 10, in your question was the valuation of the 5% as put forward by Berenburg.

“We attribute a value of US$228mln to the 5% share in Havieron; 4.3p/share," with a price target for Greatland of 24p.

So using that data, I concluded that 100%, ie the total value of Havieron as at this point in time, is equivalent to 20 times US$228M, ie $4,560,000,000.00 (20 X 5% =100%)

The next question in my mind was how much had Berenburg attributed on a unit cost in the ground basis for such a valuation of their 5%?

Well, if we were to use $450 as an example, that would infer that Berenburg IMO, (and I haven’t seen their actual workings ) are very roughly $450 per ounce/or per unit/in the ground , ie $4.560Bn / $450 = 10.133M Ounces in total for Havieron, as a whole AT THIS POINT IN TIME?

So 5% would be equivalent to 5% X 10.133M ounces = 506.65K Ounces, and is therefore worth
$US 228,000,000 ( AS PER THE BB FIGURE!) or £171,000,000

Next step, what would our in the ground 25% of Havieron valuation be, assuming we agree the 5% at a price US228M?

It would be 0.25 X 10.133M Ounces total for both parties X $450 = $ 1,140,000,000

In summary therefore, there are 2 components that summate to the BB valuation of GGP , ie, 24p /share forecast?

The 5% and the 25% elements added together, namely our 5% is worth $228,000,000 X 0.75 = £171,000,000.00
Plus our 25% Element , is worth 0.75 X $ 1,140,000,000 = £855,000,000
Total worth as of now to GGP =£ 1,026,000,000/ No of shares ( Already Issued plus Pacific Trends Resources Pty Ltd as yet to be made for payment) of roughly 4.192BN GGP shares = SP of 24p

Cannot see how you have arrived at a valuation of the 5% in all honesty at this point in time of £500Mn or was it $500M as that would equate to 20 X $500M (5%) = $10 BN?

Fun Exercise :O)

Sandgrounded,

Re: 'If we look at using shares for cash, then obviously the lower the sp, the greater number of shares required to be issued. Keeping the sp low, could persuade the board to take out the finance. (.which is their preferred option in any case). As I say just thinking aloud. Have a good weekend.'

1. Hopefully, as SD has already stated in interview he is already looking at a Bank loan/term sheets etc. That would then negate any requirment for further share issue/dilution?
2. If 1. above however, was not feasible for whatever reason , then the likes of JPM whom are already shorting us might well seek a share directly or indirectly of any future placing in order to vote through a lowball takeover? Obviously it would have to be a very large placing as most shares are already held by PI's for it to have any real effect?
3. My point being that predators are more than likely to be already circling GGP for a share of the GGP pie:O)
4. You are right about the significance IMHO about the lower the SP the greater the risk to all holders of GGP shares etc.
5. I am sure Shaun Day is more than aware of this threat.

Try to think of what is taking place now as a 'War of Attrition'

'The act or process of weakening and gradually defeating an enemy through constant attacks and continued pressure over a long period of time'

We / LTH's are the Enemy in the eyes of those whom want our shares?

PI's, hold a very potentially valuable share with an ownership of maybe 80% of GGP and at the minimum 25% of Havieron after the 5% conudrum.

Unknown parties wish to take that from you as a LTH.?

This is the way that I am currently viewing this war because it is a war.

How long are you prepared to hold out for, is the question you might ask?

For me, I will hold out until we become a Co Producer with NCM as I believe Shaun also believes, as he has already intimated in this in more ways than one, ie Cashflow, not just the 5% FMV, but the ability to continue to fund further exploration on our 100% assets.

We need a steady stream of income over the coming years to fund our development and all being well will find another major discovery on one of our 100% owned assets.

Then and only then will we really will see a major uprate in the SP , all of course IMHO.

Same negative thoughts also crossed my mind.

Should GGP and NCM end up with a much greater than 10% divergence on the FMV agreement over the 5% valuation , what might NCM do then to counter such a scenario? (Irrespective of an independent arbiter)

No agreement?, NCM walk away from the 5% FMV negotiation?

What might NCM do then given we know they want it all?

Take over GGP? and how might that be best achieved?

Engage some outfit like JPM, to drive/keep the price down as has been taking place?

Thats all I care about:O)

For me it's going to at least 50p?, your thoughts please.

Ok look there is a Blue Frog sat there., said Tiny Tim :O)

That's their choice said Tim, Nice but Dim! , :O)

Their and There? Wish folk could undertand the difference?

https://www.lombardiletter.com/central-banks-buying-gold/33609/

I don't trust the Banks, nor sellers of Gold Coins, do you?

Bottom line, Central banks are buying gold behind the scenes for they are feeling uneasy at the moment re a potential market crash and most particularly as inflation is rising and confidence is waning in the stock market and Bitcoin etc what better way to protect their reserves than investing in gold etc.

Ignore all you read from the likes of JPM & GS and do the exact oppossite, IMHO.

Refer to the book of Zoros.

Spade, Very interesting viewpoint from ST.

For me the longer we hold on to our 25%, the higher our value becomes, very much looking forward to Thursday and mid Feb.:O)

Further, the recent action by shorters in trying to prise out weak holders of their valuable GGP shares adds to the overall dynamic.

I have just reviewed the shorters holdings on Ortex (kept a diary of their holdings on loan) and note that they have now reduced their loan holdings apart from JPM, from the 17th Jan to the 25th Jan by almost 8 Million shares, presumably these are now re purchased. :O)

All in all, things are looking up for GGP IMHO.

Correction: STodruk states a big company will come along and take them over!

Hi Spade,

Just watched the video. I think you were right in the first place in a generic sense, ie, in looking at Junior companies that have a potential as do GGP in offering Nickel and Copper etc, SD states a big company will come along and take them over!

This is the situation sadly IMO that is now rumbling on in the background, as Hydro has espoused today.

NCM know fully well what we have as does SD, let's hope SD defends our 25% and defers any takeover talk etc until we can truly evaluate our future potential worth.

The only way around that question, is to obtain a copy of the share register?