Member Info for JG68

It's getting to a point where they should consider dumping the contract and accepting the consequences.

Hopefully the new BOD will be strong enough to take such decisions.

Not sure the German impairment will show at HY, which gives the rest of the year for an agreement to be made.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

What i find staggering yet reassuring is that the guidance for this year is 180-195 adjusted OP without any contribution from school buses.

Considering it was mid 180s last year that's not bad going really.

Shows what an anchor round the neck its been.

Hopefully the market will look past the non recurring charge which will show at HY, maybe they can partially offset that though the 3 month contribution of school buses.

Yeah marginally red, 1-2% here and there.

Volume doesn't warrant 4%. Wouldn't be surprised to see a short reduced yesterday.

Well that didn't take long hour and 15 to lose all yesterday's gain.

I'm 25% up there so just letting that ride, also 30k shares, just for a punt tbh.

Well its the truth paddyboy, why lie?

Not on these boards much, what's to gain from lying?

I crystallised large losses in cine and Pfc, and for obvious reasons didn't reinvest there.

But the reason for coming back in the isa is simple, despite the large write down given the fire sale, they have repeated over and over that there are no immediate liquidity requirements for a couple of years, so buying half the shares back 16p cheaper seemed a good risk reward.

And the reason for not selling in my sipp was that at 57 years old I have ample time for it to recover there. I even added at the time there.

Anyway I know you're massively underwater here, as I was at times, but it came to a point where I started derisking and trading it because just holding was a 3 year disaster.

So I sold 60k in the 80s earlier in the year and retained the 60 that I sold the day of the crash.

And been trading it in my isa recently and currently on 30 there.

And lastly, since I crystallised that loss my isa has increased by 25% elsewhere, so the decision was right.

I don't lie on these boards, old enough in the tooth to know you're only kidding yourself.

I did sell out 60k at 44 crystaling about 15k loss , but bought back 30k at 28.

Plus I've always retained 100k in my sipp but averaged at 72, so drowning there.

Are we going to push on this afternoon, not long to find out, the retrace usually starts around half 1.

Not today, right on cue the US shorts get to work

Guidance for fiscal 25 and 26 remains unchanged from what was shared on 19th May 2025 in the Q3 Trading Statement, and Diageo will report its fiscal 2025 full year results on 5th August as planned.

Nick1234

Totally agree with your post.

It's not a question of if further tax rises, it's which ones.

And she's boxed herself into a corner so it's looking likely that it will be change fiscal rules ( ruled out), increase income tax and NI ( goes against their manifesto pledge), or further taxes on business and wealth creators ( ages already dented business and consumer confidence), so my guess is the middle option, bog standard tax rises for everyone.

Whichever one, I gave sold out of all my UK stocks that rely on the UK consumer somewhat and housebuilders, except thus and BTRW which I'm locked in at a loss.

Only think I can think off is they don't want to have to revise it down again twice.

No doubt the market will focus on completions below expectations. Expecting a rough day on an already beaten down sp.

Yeah that does leave a sour taste in the mouth, if that's not trading with knowledge, what is.

Any whiff of “better than expected” here tomorrow (which is likely the very worst) can rapidly/sharply push up the much ailing share price.

Better than expected from what?

That's part of the issue, no guidance and ni comment on trading conditions from the last statement.

Even mention of subdued garden sales condition at that time.

The only baseline is analysts consensus and last year.

Further down the same rns.

The Transaction is expected to be broadly neutral to covenant leverage initially, with future deleveraging supported by the Group's remaining businesses and, in particular, ALSA's future growth and cash flow generation potential.

The Group continues to see positive passenger demand across its businesses and a strong pipeline of new business opportunities, having secured important contract wins and delivered successful retentions and mobilisations. As with a number of these recent contract wins, whilst requiring upfront investment, they provide strong and stable returns and cash flows for the Group going forwards. The increased financial flexibility the Transaction provides, combined with its ongoing operational controls, will allow the Group to focus on its higher growth and more cash generative businesses going forwards, and will allow the Group to delever over the coming years towards its target covenant leverage range of 1.5-2.0x.

Alongside a focus on deleveraging, the Transaction is expected to enable Mobico to focus and take advantage of its pipeline of attractive growth opportunities, particularly in ALSA, which is expected to enable the Group to generate more attractive returns and predictable cash flows.

WeDriveU, the Group's North America transit and shuttle business, is not part of the Transaction. WeDriveU has been successfully carved out and separated as part of the sales process to be able to report as a standalone business.

Net Proceeds and Use of Proceeds

At completion, Mobico is expected to receive approximately $365-385 million (~£275-290 million1,2) in upfront net proceeds for covenant deleveraging, after deductions for IFRS 16 leases, other debt-like items within School Bus including deferred capital expenditure, other items and transaction fees (the "Net Proceeds").

Reported net debt will be further reduced following the removal of School Bus' IFRS 16 leases of approximately $38 million (as at 31 December 2024).

The final amount of Net Proceeds will be subject to customary completion adjustment by virtue of the completion accounts mechanism agreed with I Squared and dependent on the timing of completion.

After repayment of School Bus non-IFRS 16 leases (approximately $75 million as at 31 December 2024), the remainder of the Net Proceeds will initially be held as cash.

The Board continues to consider the £500 million hybrid bond as a core element of the capital structure, providing important financial flexibility as the business continues to balance deleveraging with investment for growth. Any decisions about the hybrid - or any other element of the capital structure - will be taken at the appropriate time.

I'm not short, I've been invested unfortunately since 22. I'm just realistic. They've already said that the monies will be retained as cash, there will be no material reduction in net debt, capex will be reduced which has been excessive, but it means the company is over reliant on Alsa as UK and Germany are disastrous currently.

Why do you think the sp is 28p?

Because the intangible value of school buses has been literally given away, leaving almost 1 billion in debt, 300 mill they always retain in cash, plus the proceeds of the disposal.

I cannot see any rerate coming on the back of this deal, the market hated it.

Don't think there are any liquidity issues, or the need to raise cash, and lower interest rates will help, but they have 1 profitable segment of the business and a bill of debt, hence minimum equity value.

Why do people actually think the sp will rise when this sale is completed, considering the market wiped off almost 50% of the mcap on the announcement?

None of the monies will actually reduce the net debt number, although the leverage will slightly improve.

If you're expecting a rerate, you'll be disappointed

No Rob, never would admit to something untrue.

I posted half my thg holding on advfn in the hope that you would start believing me.