We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Personally given the events of the last 6 months, I'm not going to start believing guidance until October's q3 update, and just hope for positive external factors in the meantime. Can't see much happening now on US rate cuts, probably be more next year than 24.
And by then we probably won't be so sensitive to rates.
The market here is simply awful, other companies that are generating decent profits and good FCF can barely keep green on a day like today, eg CARD, MONY, RNK.
God forbid any war escalation also, been quiet in Israel because of passover. That will be back next week no doubt.
Paddyboy I think it was an RBC downgrade that started this leg down, exacerbated by the Germany thing soon after.
The only thing that makes any real sense to me is the City and the market simply does not believe any guidance that is given , and to be honest why should it and why should we.
They gave a load of bull at HY last year promising the cost increases in contracts would be weighted to H2, and then have consistently revised it down 4 times. Credibility is shot.
Similarly what happened at THG and it is going to take at least 3 - 4 quarters if meeting guidance to regain trust. If they meet the top end if guidance 205 for this year then 52p looks stupid. And this without any external catalysts to give it a boost.
I need to listen to the q & a again because there's something about the Alsa concessions ending next year that I'm not quite understanding also.
They reduced 1% in October also.
Can't see the big issue but knowing the market will probably whack us 15% just because of sentiment here.
Jesus C, another one appears, we really are under the cosh and now being targeted.
I think this is going to get really ugly here.
Shorts probably don't believe the guidance and expect further profit warnings.
What an awful investment.
4% down when markets are flying, on a profitable cash generative stock says it all about the utter idiots in the City
Or there's a leak and they're not much cop.
Wasn't the pce today, hotter at 3.7 hence partial reason for the sell off?
Not sure if non farm payrolls tomorrow.
Beside we fell sharply at 11 am this morning not at 1.30 where were around 54 and hovered around 53 the rest of the day.
I reckon for some reason the market thinks we still operate trains, we shouldn't be linked with that and this news today, or Cosmens we're buying first thing and stopped at 11 !!!
MW increased the last three days and the TR1 came out today after they increased yesterday.
Really can't imagine Cosmen telling any short fund his intentions.
The company does not appear to be in financial distress like for example PFC.
I'm wondering whether the Cosmen / Garat bromance is coming to an end, or we are approaching the endgame of the biggest orchestrated demise in a company by a major holder and CEO to regain control of Alsa on the cheap.
Wealthtransfer
Think it was obvious they were buying yesterday given the PM, guess we will know when they start again.
This seemed to plummet this morning when the newsflow about Labours plan to nationalise the railways spread.
Stockepedia did a small news feed which showed up as an alert for Mobico.
I would have thought that if he is going to make a move, he would mop up what he needs whilst in the 50s, unless we head down to 40s.
The debt matures in stages between 26 and 31 I think.
If their ultimate goal is to gain control of Alsa, surely there's enough value in disposing of the US/UK and Germany businesses to repay the debt, speaking very simplistically
I'm beginning to wonder how much / little Cosmens actually does know.
Why would you buy 10s of millions of shares in the 70/80s either side of Xmas if you had half an idea what was coming and you could buy them considerably cheaper?
Not sure I get that.
JW
Out of interest.
When you say you sold some you bought at 54 but still have a fair holding.
Does that mean for example you have a holding that is in the red, added some at 54 but was still in the red, and then sold those ones from the same holding?
Reason I ask is because whenever I do that, it reduces what it says my overall loss is, because it is thinking that I have sold those recent buys at a loss, even though say I sold them for more than what I paid.
It's confusing, similarly with AJB if I sell and buy back within 30 days, sometimes the system says my purchase price is what I sold them for ( 30 day rule) which is annoying because it's up to me to do my accounts for tax purposes!!!
Although it's always worrying, possibly it's a minor hedge against any long position, even 500 k shares can do a lot of damage with their small algo sells.
But it is a risk at these levels because any tr1 with cosmens increasing their holding will have a positive effect, you would have thought.
Like yesterday afternoon it seemed more like something in the background (possible off book buying) which caused it to rise all afternoon.