The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Exactly wealthtransfer
In Alsa they have one of the best transport businesses in Europe imo.
The sum of the parts does not justify this valuation, sentiment and management does.
Also they probably have 12-18 months to start thinking about the Hybrid don't they, if maturity is 27-31?
By which time NA sale aside rates are hopefully likely to be lower.
Do you recall what the analyst was asking about re Alsa concessions ending possibly next year, couldn't quite grasp what they referred to and if there could be an impact to Alsa then ?
There are various posters suggesting risk of administration, balance sheet hanging on by a thread, there was even one yesterday suggesting that Cosmens are adding to be able to get Alsa on favourable terms from creditors after MCG goes into prepack.
Obviously where we are and with sentiment at an all time low, one begins to question if you're going to get wiped out.
As simplistic as it is to think like this, I keep reminding myself how much Alsa is probably worth if it were sold today, well over a billion I would guess.
Mavswf
I think I recall some brokers initially talking about figures circa 1.2 billion 6 months ago, but really unsure now.
Can anyone clarify the reason for delaying the sale until around q3 after the schools bids contracts are finalised?
Is it to demonstrate to potential suitors the improved profitability margins on future revenue / contracts given the current inflationary headwinds?
I think they stated they hope to complete the sale by year end.
When talking of why cosmens are adding, is there any validity in this post from advfn.
wouldn't occur to the thickest of the thick that they would want to command the strongest hand in administration in order to have the credibility and gain the confidence of the creditors when this shower falls into prepack.
Personally given the events of the last 6 months, I'm not going to start believing guidance until October's q3 update, and just hope for positive external factors in the meantime. Can't see much happening now on US rate cuts, probably be more next year than 24.
And by then we probably won't be so sensitive to rates.
The market here is simply awful, other companies that are generating decent profits and good FCF can barely keep green on a day like today, eg CARD, MONY, RNK.
God forbid any war escalation also, been quiet in Israel because of passover. That will be back next week no doubt.
Paddyboy I think it was an RBC downgrade that started this leg down, exacerbated by the Germany thing soon after.
The only thing that makes any real sense to me is the City and the market simply does not believe any guidance that is given , and to be honest why should it and why should we.
They gave a load of bull at HY last year promising the cost increases in contracts would be weighted to H2, and then have consistently revised it down 4 times. Credibility is shot.
Similarly what happened at THG and it is going to take at least 3 - 4 quarters if meeting guidance to regain trust. If they meet the top end if guidance 205 for this year then 52p looks stupid. And this without any external catalysts to give it a boost.
I need to listen to the q & a again because there's something about the Alsa concessions ending next year that I'm not quite understanding also.