RE: Berenberk13 Oct 2020 14:07
Last bit from me and please excuse typos as I can't get this easily into a form to copy and paste:
'We initiate coverage with a HOLD recommendation and a price target of GBp22 based principally on our assumed in situ reserve value for Havieron (USD 592m) and Greatland's other projects in the Paterson region (USD 419m).
The main sensitivities for our valuation are the size of the deposit and the USD EV/oz value of the pear group. Under a salt deposit scenario of 5.4Moz on a gold equivalent basis, if Greatland trades at the lower end of the Australian peer group at USD 176/oz reserve, then our valuation would decline to GBp10/share, a 55% reduction. If we apply the upper end valuation for the ASX peers, then our valuation would increase to GBP1,182M, GBp31.3 / share - 42% above our price target.
Our 5.4 Moz deposit size assumption is split between 3.75oz from the initial drilling at the Crescent and Breccia Zones with a further 1.65Moz from the Breccia and Northern Breccia that should be released in 1.65Moz. If the resource if 2Moz - which we view as the minimum that the drill results to date are likely to deliver - then that would reduce out price target to GBp11. At 7Moz it would increase to BGp37"
I have typed what is there but can not help but wonder whether there is a typo in their report where it says 'that should be released in 1.65 Moz'- feels like they should have put a date in there rather than '1.65Moz' but I could be wrong.