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Jaguar - you’re missing the point. Everything Malpenn mentions is what Prem want…. The company that failed to meet the contract.
So what do Canmax (the company that delivered on their contractural obligations) get?
Don’t forget, Prem embarrassed them? They will want something for the lack of SC6 and new terms favourable to Prem. SP has little to do with it.
J
I suspect Canmax will get an extension to the 10% discount for what we owe. They may request 100% supply for the first $50m worth of SC6. Potentially they will leverage a 15/20% discount. Potentially increase their stake in Prem at large discount.
They will also insert some new exit clauses if Prem don't hit the new lower tonnage Stark promise. To further hold Prem to account.
Interested to hear others thoughts on how Canmax will get their pound of flesh.
J
IMO Canmax and Prem will make a deal, but this will cost Prem a 'pound of flesh'. I do believe both companies need to make this work for their own future successes, but also appreciate Canmax wont let Prem go unpunished. This is why i also believe prem should not let Stark go unpunished either. The 3 most pressing questions are:
1) What will the cost of the deal be to Prem
2) Can a mine-gate agreement be achieved to secure finances
3) What is the SC% (remember Stark have already accounted Mays production in the June delivery figures... what if its SC5 ????? June delivery will already be short
J
I’m not expecting an RNS on Canmax until later this week. They won’t trigger the clause until they have explored all possible solutions with Prem. They don’t have to trigger the clause at all tbf
Either a deal or a clause eow imo.
J
Simply put, I don’t believe anything GR says and again he’s implying we will beat targets, before he’s even hit a single one.
Canmax will make a deal imo…. But at what cost??? This is the biggest question. Don’t expect something for free… they have ‘been embarrassed’. In Chinese culture this comes with a cost.
Frustrated and to top it off, GR talking about Prem paying Stark for the 25% over capacity they plan to hit in December… well how about they f*king pay for the £millions in damages and loss of earnings from March - Dec.
Madness and clearly feeling frustrated
J
Raaydaar - I think the AGM being called is guaranteed. He even hinted at some of the funds being used for something other than Zulu. Imo if he does this, he needs his knuckles wrapped by shareholders. Focus should be solely on Zulu if cash is so constrained and revenue eom.
First delivery remains the most important. My main concern is plant ‘optimisations’ (redesign) don’t work. Then what? Stark have another go? I think at this point I would sack them off and get someone else in and then take Stark to the cleaners for damages and breach of contract. But let’s cross that bridge if we come to it… which I hope we won’t.
Also - I don’t like the fact he was talking about selling 50% stake in Li3 Mature project. If we get what we hope, we won’t need the money in a months time with constant revenue coming in… at which point arnt we better off being the funder of the exploration (and eventually a pilot) in return for Li3 running the show + a majority %
J
I watched the interview and GR makes me feel uncomfortable when he suggests Canmax will do everything he wants. Can’t help but feel he is a bit naive.
If i had to guess, Canmax will accept the low tonnage and won’t pull out, but it will cost Prem the interest on the loan via SC6, Canmax increase back up to their original (or more) % holding of Prem (due to recently being diluted) and increased SC6 payback with a new contract and clauses. Also GR will do a raise after calling am AGM. He can’t run the risk of not making that first delivery since we have circa 6weeks cash flow based on the £1m per month.
My position on Stark remains the same - they are to blame and have been feeding GR miss information about something he is not Experienced in, and therefore I do have some sympathy for GR.
J
One of the biggest reasons, the webinar is a mistake is because people are still very emotional about how they have been lied to and treated… and how their finances have been impacted.
There is absolutely nothing George can say today that will make right what he has done, in fact, I suspect he is likely to open his mouth and say some more over promises like ‘we actually believe we will produce more spodumene then we have estimated on the RNS’
I think it’s right that he is doing a webinar, but he should be doing it in two weeks time.
Radaar - I can see you there are a few on here that don’t like what you say because it’s negative, however, I think you are talking common sense. Unfortunately Canmax could pull the rug from underneath our feet, and anybody who doesn’t believe that risk is in play is burying their head in the sand. I believe it’s a 50-50 chance… the Chinese are ruthless, and via one of their other subsidies, they could always find a way to get that spodumene, cheaper, and over a longer period. Initiating the clause backs, Prem into a corner and they’re there for the taking.
Until the Canmax situation is sorted, there is a very awkward risk here.
(FYI I haven’t bought or sold any shares)
J
Steward - agree very strange comment about shooting the lights out… especially when Prem are trying to keep the lights on!
I think from 2023 Prem will be in a much better position. This is clearly a tough hurdle to clear. I just can’t stand the lies and the clear lack of ownership of problems.
Admit the issues, and move on. If GR and Stark did this in the first place, expectations could have been managed better and SP more stable…
J
((Enter reply: Welcome to Aim)) 😉
Lots taken in by stark ceo apparent email….
Just to be clear, he says ‘works are ‘by no means considerable’
Ok, l just remind me, 9months lead time to build the plant…. + 9 months late to hit full production. And you class that as ‘not considerable’???
Also, if you read the original pilot plant rns, it clearly states Stark will supply a plant that DOES NOT REQUIRE CHEMICALS…. Oh yeh, how did that go.
Sorry to be negative, but 90% of the Prem pain has originated from Stark. CEO not to be trusted, even more than GR imo
J
Flava- the problem with the numbers produced on the rns is simply that no one trusts them. It’s ‘hope’ keeping people here now, not ‘trust’.
The output will be what it will be, and all shareholder focus should now be on the Canmax clause. Quite how you evaluate that risk is beyond me. ridiculous as it sounds only way to know that we are about to be informed of the clause being triggered would be a sharp drop the share price due to more leaks….. it’s quite farcical.
J
PM01 - by your recent posts I can appreciate you are an experienced PM. As you will know, FAT and SAT are very often done individually and independently for each piece of equipment.
Optimisation is about getting it to all work together in harmony efficiently….. it seems to me Stark are way off optimisation. It’s fundamental. Optimisation gets you your last 20% not your last 75%. As I’m sure you can appreciate
J
Whilst I can’t help feeling lied to by George, I’m also quite aware that George is not a lithium processing plant design engineer. You can all attack George as much as you like, but he paid an external professional company to install a plant on premiers behalf, as Prem did not have the internal skills, knowledge, or experience to do so themselves. In this regard, George must be feeling as frustrated as all of us as these are fundamental design issues with the processing plant. There has been no text or information to suggest that the Ore is not sufficient and this is where premiers fundamental liability and value is held.
I would personally like to hear a statement from Stark.
J