Member Info for Jemesa

I guess the first point is you were wrong: the Dec 31st EIA deadline was missed. The Jan 12 RNS explicitly confirmed it was filed on New Year’s Eve. Filing it protected the $36m grant—job done.

I don’t think your DFS 'concerns' are totally wrong, but they miss a lot of context

• We’re building for 37,500 tonnes now, not 29,000. Of course Capex is up, but we have a €360m state grant covering a massive chunk of it. Who else on the AIM has that?

You may have also noticed the geopolitical context meaning it’s likely this will be further scaled up.

• Lithium Carbonate is back at $22,000/t. The DFS was conservative; the reality is far more profitable.

• Geopolitics: With the US-EU trade war over Greenland heating up this weekend, 'Local Lithium' is now a national security priority, not just a mining project.

But more to the point the DFS wasn't for the likes of us - it was for the banks. They’re happy, the Czechs are happy, and the EIA is in. The market cap vs. the $1.45bn NPV is the only math that matters. Everything else is just the noise of peanuts being thrown from the gallery

So things are escalating quickly - EU is now talking about:

- accelerating the Critical Minerals Act

- Stockpiling lithium - looks like that offtake is coming sooner rather than later

- EU/Australia connection - hmmm... who could that be and let's hope KC shut the rocket's door

https://brusselsmorning.com/european-council-president-antonio-costa-signals-eu-counter-to-us-efforts-on-greenland-ownership/91870/

"Šefčovič confirmed Critical Raw Materials Act acceleration 10 percent domestic extraction 40 percent EU processing capacity 2030 targets advancement rare earth magnet recycling technologies demonstration Sweden €250 million investment coordination."

and

"Critical raw materials act implementation acceleration measures

European Commission Critical Raw Materials Act permanent task force supply security monitoring early warning mechanisms stakeholder coordination 10 percent domestic extraction 40 percent processing capacity 2030 targets execution. Joint Research Centre rare earth separation facilities magnet recycling technologies demonstration scale-up EU-Australia Canada partnerships battery semiconductor defence applications diversification coordination.

European Defence Agency critical minerals secure sourcing requirements national security industrial base resilience enhancement member states implementation transparency accountability mechanisms execution documentation. Strategic autonomy enhancement reduces China 85 percent global processing concentration risk US tariff exposure mitigation EU processing localisation battery manufacturing semiconductor production imperatives coordination."

When the EU has allocated half a billion to a project, it's no longer optional.

I think what we could be seeing here is a market not used to seeing a state backed strategic asset available to buy on AIM. Most punters like pump and dump tech or bio tech, and so there's a disconnect.

I imagine within EMH they must be puzzling what more can we do to get the penny to drop. But the price rise is inevitable, and as someone else said, there's still opportunity to buy cheap shares.

That should of course read 37,000 tonnes and 200,000 tonnes - not 37m tonnes 😀

I suspect right around now there’s some serious discussion around what more could we get out of the ground beyond 37m tonnes per annum.

The Cinovec deposit contains roughly 7.4 million tonnes of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE).

• The "Slow" Plan (Current): They mine roughly 1 million tonnes of LCE over 26 years. This leaves about 85% of the lithium still in the ground.

• The "30-Year Maximum" Plan: If the EU and the Czech government (CEZ) decided to "empty the tank" over 30 years to win the resource war, they could theoretically ramp up production to over 200,000 tonnes per year.

Actually, the low share price is secondary to the fact that the 'serious money' has already arrived.

Meeting that $36m Just Transition grant deadline on Dec 31 was huge. It’s not just about the cash - it’s a signal to big bank analysts that the project has passed the first major test. When a project gets that kind of state backing, it makes it much easier for the pros to map out the rest of the funding.

Then you have the European Bank (EBRD) as a shareholder. They don't just throw money at projects; they provide the 'stamp of approval' that opens doors to massive, low-interest loans that regular junior miners can't get.

Add the €360m state grant on top, and you have nearly half a billion in support before you even talk to a commercial bank. That €360m isn't just a deposit; it’s a 'risk-shield' that protects the project from market swings. It proves the EU and the Czechs won't let this fail, which is exactly what big institutional investors need to see before they jump in.

Can you imagine the discussions within the strategic planning team at the EU right now - they have a whole legal framework in place - the US and China are now existential threats - what do we have? …. Cinovec that could be ramped up way more than 37m tonnes annually - expect major impetus and cinovec being in the news. This will start to focus big investors in the coming weeks.

😂

Frustrations aside, those wrong turns may have been the best thing he could have done. Any offtake agreements finalized before now could bave been a disaster for EMH - by keeping EMH’s powder dry, EMH is now in a superb position to do the best deal. Also to be fair to Keith he acknowledges in the video there’s been some luck 🍀- which we all need a bit of.

My guess is that all could be forgiven in the next few months as the share price ticks up and a floor moves to around £0.4 prior to the FID - which let’s face it is a formality in the context we find ourselves in.

The trade row over Greenland could do it for Keith and EMH because this in an already fraught atmosphere has essentially forced the EU’s hand. Because the US is using access to minerals as a bargaining tool, the EU can no longer risk relying on imports for its battery industry.

Cinovec/geomet/EMH/CEZ/CZ is the winner here because:

• the Czechs aren't currently on the US tariff list, the lithium can go straight to the local Škoda factories without being taxed or caught in shipping delays. Expect rapid permitting

• investments (like software or services) get risky because their value depends on global stability. "Real assets"—the actual lithium in the ground—become the safest place to put money because the world needs the material regardless of the politics.

• The Math: Lithium prices are back up to $22,000/tonne. The project was already valued at $1.45 billion when prices were lower. Now that it’s both more profitable and a "national security" asset, that valuation gap is hard for big investors to ignore.

Good old Keith has woken up on a rocket ship after taking a few wrong turns

Great point and what follows is only my personal conviction and view because EMH is such an anomaly based on legal and political backing in such a hot geopolitical context.

I note you've also said smaller ESG funds would look but I think these points need to be considered too:

1. there are specialist ESG Small-Cap desks (Berenberg, Janus Henderson, or Fondita) who are supposed to look for 'Strategic Projects' under the €50m-£100m cap.

2. EBRD already hold 6% of EMH (a significant point to anyone thinking CEZ or anyone else doesn't have to consider "fair value" - EBRD is alongside the 360m and 36m grant funding) - and EBRD is a multi-billion euro institutional giant. EBRD didn’t wait for a £250m market cap because the project is so critical and must succeed.

3. While a massive fund won't distort the market when EMH hits 25p (as the MMs know) a few Article 8 satellite funds will take 1% starter positions. That's the 'Seal of Approval' that triggers the automated momentum buyers.

Just on that geopolitical context even the MSM is picking up on this, and interesting that a think tank is starting to see the bigger picture in the UK (which is a few years behind the EU): https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jan/16/over-reliance-on-china-could-hit-uk-energy-supply-chains-putting-9000-jobs-at-risk

Thanks 🙏- also appreciate that what I think may not be that original - just find the EMH situation/anomaly so interesting. Also very conscious that I don’t know whether I’m right or not / just all signs seem to be pointing one way

Following EMH quite closely leads me to believe that we're witnessing a period where the market makers are trying to manipulate retail holders into selling cheap. It is certain that the massive European ESG funds cannot invest in companies (like EMH now) worth less than £50m (the 25 p)

The Market Makers know this so they keep the price pinned at 19.5p to 'shake the tree' and get retail to drop their shares to them before the £50m threshold is hit - because they know what will happen when it is hit.

The EU is throwing $3bn Euros at this strategy - CEZ is now (or is acting as) the project's bank (see the Jan 8th loan news - https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/european-metals-holding-limited-di---emh/completion-of-non-dilutive-refinancing/9103075) - and it's clear for EMH that the 'funding risk' is gone. Fairly unprecedented for the sector to the point that EMH is now a total anomaly given how de-risked it is, with the additional 36m just waiting for the political tick - that is guaranteed given the economic and political importance of cinovec to the Czech govt and that area's economic development to transition away from coal.

So if you're hitting buy now it seems that you are letting the middlemen bore you out of a position right before the 'Institutional Lock' breaks.

Further to this, it seems likely that a lot of the selling from mid December onwards were people just fed up with the delays, but much of the buying is likely to be institutions taking early positions. The legal and political weight of what's going on just hasn't been fully understood by many - and it will be interesting to see who the next big player is that takes more than a 3% stake in EMH and has to disclose this. It seems fairly inevitable that it will be Skoda who makes an offer to buy a chunk of EMH in the medium term for fair value.

Great question, and I hasten to preface my response by saying I am not in any way a financial person, but at 25p EMH is then valued at 50m (market cap), then this applies: "Further, 60% of AIM companies are capitalised at less than £50 million, which is below the threshold at which most institutions invest, predominantly because of poor liquidity.[6]" - https://time-investments.com/2023/06/demystifying-aim-listed-companies-from-wild-west-to-enviable-eco-system/

So, as I understand it most UK institutional and ESG funds have a strict 'Minimum Market Cap' filter, meaning that they are currently on the sidelines just waiting for the green light that goes on when the share price sustains a price above 25p. Unless someone has a really good reason to sell because they need the money, it therefore seems like the best course of action to hold until the price goes above 25 p and then hold to see what happens when the bigger boys jump in. I have no pressure to sell my holding but I appreciate that others may do.

Not so sure about equalisation, Sydney closed overnight at a 20.55p equivalent ($0.40 AUD). So we're still trailing the Oz close by about 3%.

8% skip or jump in Sydney looks like the market finally pricing in the fact that the EIA is filed and the grants are safe. I think we're still in the 'cheap' zone for now because the bigger ESG bigger boys aren't allowed in the pool just now - but I should think they are in their trunks with goggles on.

If I am right, we will see a strong late afternoon session where we will break the 20p, so not too long to wait.

Good points, and the only thing I would question is whether retail does actually own 207m in shares. Does anyone know what percentage of that 207m is now in institutional hands, boutique funds etc. I would suggest it would be upwards of 30% by now.

Fair points - the board of EMH have looked like total muppets and the 'botched' ASX release was amateur and the last-minute EIA filing looked daft but was probably beyond EMH's control.

But taking a step back EMH is sailing not just with strong tailwinds, but on the crest of a wave that is building. The 8% jump in Sydney could indicate the market is starting to look past the Keith 'muppet factor' and focusing on the fact that the €396m in grants are now effectively ring-fenced by that EIA submission.

The real action starts when we cross 25p because the big ESG and institutional funds finally get the green light to buy. As such, any retail holders would be sensible to hold on for the wave to get bigger. The discussion of setting a price under Li within the G7 - plus the drafting of EU laws shows that even if the EMH board has come across as less than serious at times, there are serious people and serious legal and political moves behind this now.

I have noted that at 25p EMH crosses a threshold for ESG funds. It seems to me that there is an inexorable momentum towards 25p because there is so much vested interest for everyone involved, not least ESG funds who are desperately looking for project companies like Geomet that tick all the boxes for ESG - but most importantly because mining lithium within the EU guarantees standards are actually met. So my question is when will it hit 25 p, not if, and I strongly suspect we are less than 14 days from that point now.

What is the actual volume today because I am seeing very mixed messages and an unreliable AI is insisting that nearly 700k shares have traded

I think these are good points, but it does seem to me that there is so much momentum behind EMH it's less about the milestones or meeting this or that than a usual project. I undertake work in areas related to ESG projects - not from a finance point of view but checking legal and governance baselines, and one thing that I have heard repeatedly from big investors is that they just cannot find the ESG projects they are mandated to locate. So, I would be surprised if EMH isn't showing up like a great big flashing green light on ESG fund manager's dashboards right now. So my feeling is that we are looking at an opportunity that is too important to fail - and an open goal that surely even the EMH board can't miss from here?

Hi there, I am fascinated by the EMH story. Admittedly I am coming into this late in the day, but in a fast changing world it seems to me that EMH is tied to the ongoing success/survival of the EU. The money that has been thrown at EMH to underwrite it via grant funding is a recognition of the geopolitical reality we now find ourselves in. The project has been legally and politically de-risked, and the only outstanding question relates to when EMH will receive a buy out offer. This cannot be from CEZ because it would invalidate Geomet from the EU grant funding, so it will be from a major EU industry player or more likely a couple to keep the grant conditions alive. The fair value will be drawn from the DFS which will improve further when it is updated to comply with ASX filing rules. So, in terms of AIM investments EMH is a 95% probability of success rather than failure (perhaps unprecedented in the AIM context). So yes, it's a buy. But for me it's more than an investment, EMH and its model that has legal backing due to the CRMA legislation is essential for us in the Europe as a means of supporting an economic bloc of countries that is committed to international rules and order that will survive beyond the current efforts of populist politicians to pull all this down to make a quick buck and take advantage of disaster capitalism. The fascinating aspect of EMH is how it is positioned to gain support from major institutional ESG funds that will vote in favour of planning, good governance, environmental standards and a greener future that we all depend on. It is why I have invested because EMH meets my requirements for something I am happy to invest in - I hope that this investment will be in place as long as possible and there is not a quick buy out - although that is perhaps 50:50 - if that happens I will regret it because it will be hard to find something similar to invest in which has this unique combination of de-risking, ESG and is such an essential part of the EU story. I would be interested in any similar companies - and I am keeping an eye on GROC.