Member Info for Jemesa

Ok, so at the current spot price or 25k cinovec would be getting 32k - 4k per tonne above the DFS figures.

Https://ec.europa.eu/transparency/documents-register/detail?ref=SWD(2026)71&lang=en

So this came out in March 2026 (apologies if it's already been discussed) but its an EU Impact Assessment for the Industrial Accelerator Act relating to decarbonisation and for EMH/cinovec it's basically saying that European lithium will have a guaranteed 30% price premium over global imports/global spot prices. We all know why this is happening, but the EU is talking about it in terms of less carbon because Cinovec and others will offer a 71% CO2 reduction compared to the global average - and we also know that there will be a mandatory compliance tool for carmakers under the new EU Battery Passport rules.

The bottom line for cinovec is that if the lithium spot price is $15,000/t, Cinovec can charge $19,500/t; at $20,000/t it's $26,000/t - At $25,000/t spot (close to where we are now it hits $32,500/t.

I don't think this is getting missed by the CZ finance people and I was just curious to find something that would explain how cinovec lithium would be priced by the EU - what was the spot price used in the DFS?

I've been holding GROC for a few months and am pleased to this is going in the right direction - a genuine question for anyone who considers they are experts here - where is this going in the next few months and to the end of 2026?

Thanks! 🙏 I am seeing the same thing, and this increased awareness of what cinovec represents does point towards later explaining/justifying to the CZ pop the fantastic deal in securing 100% of the resource by buying out EMH. It’s a little disappointing to realise that the last couple of years has really just been a reflection of the lithium price, but conversely, as lithium goes up and the EU/US take protection measures it’s not hard to see how the wind will quickly blow in the opposite direction.

I should think it’s an interesting negotiation.

50% of NPV is £1 is it not?

£1.20 - 1.40 seems about right

Thanks (I think). I wouldn’t say my opinion has changed so much as evolved alongside the data, what's happened in 2026 (quite a lot) and particularly following this week’s RNS.

My original comment (and the main reason I’m in this) was more a general response to the theory that CEZ could simply "squeeze" or low-ball EMH. I still hold that view. The EBRD/EU presence remains a shield for EMH that makes a predatory takeover a non-starter.

However, the mechanism for resolution has shifted. Keith’s RNS this week was a big one. It confirmed that the Unanimous Veto is a hard legal reality. CEZ cannot starve or dilute EMH out of the project.

At the same time, the 4 Trillion CZK ($182bn) valuation in CZ's financial press shows a major change in the political optics. It’s no longer just a mine - it’s a massive sovereign asset and a huge economic opportunity.

As for the "contradiction" you're pointing to - it comes down to a simple question: In 2026, does the EU prefer a 51/49 JV with a foreign junior, or a clean, 100% state-owned entity ? I suspect National Security and Supply Sovereignty now trumps the just transition principles I was pointing to earier - right now.

The thing that remains constant in my view is that any buyout of EMH will have to be at a fair value, based on the couple on billion NPV (and rising) and whether it's CEZ or another entity looks like it's underway.

I’m not sure I have said that, and can’t be bothered going back over previous posts. My view has been I don’t think CEZ would try to stiff EMH on the price, and I’ve never thought that EMH would be around the construction phase. Apart from anything else, it looks to me like the 400m in EU funding likely means that for the EU difficult questions would arise if tax payer funds flow to EMH as a private company to the benefit of “foreign shareholders”. The project has reached a stage where something has to move by 30 June, and that puts a little pressure on CEZ to clean it all up by then. The recent trillion cz currency valuation seems to be ideally timed to enable CEZ to buy EMH out at a very fair price and still it would be pocket change for CEZ - framed as a strategic move to realise full value for CEZ / the state etc. I think my original thought was CEZ is too big to think small and shaft EMH given its long term commitment / work / applying for the funds etc. plus the IP and ongoing support. So hopefully there’s not a post where I’m saying CEZ would never buy out EMH but I can’t recall one.

Something is shifting and all the signs are pointing torwards a CEZ buyout of EMH. After all we know Geomet cannot move without unanimous shareholder approval. The EBRD (euro bank) shareholder is there to ensure a fair price, and any rise in share price now assists EMH and its fair value that will also be assessed on the rising NPV. I think CEZ will want a friendly takeover to keep all EMH IP and going assistance with the industrial processes. It’s not rocket science although what we may be feeling is the ignition of the rocket engines?

I’ve always struggled to buy any decent amount of EMH via Hargreaves. £2500-5000 a pop is all that they seem to allow. Others have reported the same thing to me.

Ha! That's classic. I wonder what he/she was thinking.

Apologies for my ignorance as I know nothing about the publication but it seems reputable and is quoting CEZ - it also looks like it's grabbing people's attention given the uptick in EMH this afternoon.

I also picked up a decent chunk of GROC a while back and I am watching that one move too. EMH ticks more boxes for me though.

So this is essentially saying that the value of the lithium in the ground at cinovec is 4 trillion CZK (roughly $172 billion USD) effectively doubling in value in a year due to a 132% surge in global prices and its strategic sovereign status. The scale of this is difficult to overstate.

So is this 4-trillion-CZK valuation accurate, and if so, it's hard not to see the implications.

How credible is this report / publication anyone?

Good call, esp on the timings. I agree with the sentiment to encourage EMH, but I don't think that there's much in EMH's hands right now as it's all with CEZ/CZ government. The really interesting button that EMH pressed this week was the speedy RNS that sharply explained Geomet could not make a cash call without unanimous approval of all shareholders CEZ and EMH - meaning EMH is keeping the capital structure tight and protecting the share price. I would love for us to be in this for the long-haul as a project for real believers in what cinovec represents but it seems to me that EMH is positioning itself for an exit and soon.

Given what we can see the asset is (and as you point out the spot price of lithium is high even before the ESG / EU passport lithium, tin and tungsten are factored in) - but its now a strategic/critical national and regional asset of this scale tied to long term national and regional security. It means that a buyout is the cleanest resolution for the Czech state and the most likely catalyst for a sharp, vertical rerate.

The question for me is does this deal wait for the final sign offs from Prague or will it be pre-empted by an earlier announcement? This week we have seen Keith/EMH move very fast on an issue that they could comment on (they are clearly not asleep at the wheel) - and the total radio silence for months suggests something big is being planned and with the confirmed NPV as a couple of billion and rising, fair value for EMH shares is an interesting debate.

I am loathe to interject again because everytime I do a bunch of people rightly tell me not to engage with trolls. However, if the troll thinks that a director not buying right now is a red flag then it’s most likely that the troll is wrong again. If - and I am saying If - EMH is where we think it is and a clean buyout at a high price or some sort of offtake or other major milestone is about to happen - then no director would be buying shares now.

The question is therefore - has the troll done it again and accidentally revealed a huge green flag while looking for a red one?

Is our troll colour blind as well and barmy?

Well one of us was right (and predicted the RNS).... and the other went on a mad babbling rampage hoping for a dilution because somehow that would make his pathological and unhinged obsession with Keith Coughlan all mean something

Wow. You're slow on the uptake, and er... and then you say what I was saying yesterday before pointing out that there would be a RNS today (not AI) me.

I get that you're grumpy because you were hoping for a 10 bagger in 2021 but that's not my fault.

We are where we are, and a moment's thought would show that while lithium was at unsustainable prices then the actual mine was nowhere near being built - things are different now and we're in that orphan period where we are forced to look at signs between announcements. If you don't like people having an opinion - guess what, you don't have to read them.

Apologies for predicting the RNS today - seems like I may be a little better than you at predicting things. If you want to believe that's AI slop then you're just being lazy (again).

A fair summary - however, it does seem to miss the mic drop moment where the Board just admitted the audit contained Inside Information and specifically mentioned 'Third Party Debt' as the bridge to FID.

Also the Board is using their veto power to hold off on shareholder funding in favour of other sources. You’re right in saying that the real value comes from the milestones—but the Deloitte audit confirms that the last bearish milestone (the €13m funding gap) is sorted.

Another thing that could be overlooked here is that Deloitte’s "Ability to Pay" sign-off was likely based on seeing that EMH and CEZ are in total agreement on a specific financing route (like the EU Mechanism, grant or debt financing). Big decisions for Geomet require unanimous approval of shareholders. Bodes well for the next logical steps.

Someone mentioned serious people and so it's good to see this information is surfacing because this is the sort of thing that we need at this point - people who understand what's happening, not based on trying to be positive or negative but people who read and understand the wording and where we are.

Oh, look the ball tickler is back.

I assume have managed to read and understand the RNS that just dropped—the one that I said yesterday would have to be released because of the audit.

The board has now explicitly confirmed:

The funding steps were indeed initiated on Jan 28th (as per the audit).

EMH is refusing to trigger a cash call (meaning they are blocking dilution) - fear mongering is over.

They are actively looking at "Third Party Debt" - but cannot confirm this is in place (because it's part of ongoing negotiations)

If anyone wanted to be taken seriously on this discussion they just had to read and understand that the auditors - Deloitte had verified EMH's "Ability" for the current requirements on March 31, 2026. Auditors don't sign off on "ability" based on "hopes" for a future share placing. They sign off on contracts and bank statements.

The Board just admitted that the Audit contained Inside Information - and I read the documents before the RNS caught you up.

But thanks for the comment always nice to see the ball tickler implode and the board troll be proved some emphatically wrong - and of all people to take the troll down it was her ex Keith

The "Dilution" fear is currently being dismantled by the Board's own veto power.

Total vindication for the serious folks on this forum chat :)

If that’s not true then the green flag just got bigger and it reverts to the auditors have seen EMH has the ability to pay meaning Deloittes have seen some sort of financing facility or offtake