Member Info for JeffMills

For 2025, revenue was originally projected to be between £18 million and £22 million. However, this forecast likely didn’t account for the first sale of Neptune V, meaning we’re already looking at an additional £4 million or more in revenue. So i'm expecting a big upgrade. A big rise.

I've noticed that some people here place a lot of weight on broker ratings, but here's a little tip: they often don't mean much. Most of these ratings tend to hover within 10-20% of the current share price and are usually not that insightful. It's amusing how some in here take downgrades as gospel when it's the same brokers—like JP Morgan—that were previously setting 'buy' targets at 700p. Ultimately, these ratings are bs. The sooner people realise that, the better.

Revenue Acceleration:

They’ve sold their first NEPTUNE V in Germany—this is just the start. Expect more sales in Europe, especially with Germany’s €25 billion hydrogen pipeline now in play. Revenue guidance could see a bump.

New Contracts Incoming:

With Shell REFHYNE II already signed and Yara operational, ITM is proving they’re the go-to for large-scale hydrogen projects. The German market is heating up, and ITM is perfectly positioned to ride this wave. Expect announcements on more industrial deals—500MW capacity FID reservation could be confirmed?

Germany Expansion Paying Off:

They’ve been hiring aggressively in Germany, and it’s no coincidence they’re focusing here. With Europe leading the hydrogen charge, ITM’s growing local presence could unlock new partnerships and sales, fast-tracking their growth.

Regulatory Tailwinds Driving Demand:

Both the UK (£2B+ green hydrogen funding) and Germany are doubling down on hydrogen. ITM’s already ahead with the right products and projects, so they’ll be first in line for the upswing in demand.

Product Strength Validated:

Customers love the NEPTUNE V and POSEIDON modules. These are market-leading products, and the early sales feedback could translate into larger, recurring orders.

Stronger Balance Sheet Than Expected:

Net cash is solid, and with operational efficiencies kicking in, they’re set up to scale smartly. Any news on additional funding or reduced cash burn will reinforce their financial position.

One last point to remember: we are Linde’s partner for PEM technology. Linde, with an annual turnover of over €30 billion, owns 20% of ITM. If that doesn’t underscore our position as pioneers in this field, I don’t know what does. Let’s not forget who’s at the forefront here – just saying.

Let’s keep the focus on what really matters today, rather than a few people getting worked up over nothing and calling a discussion “bickering” – laughable, really. Neso at ITM Power today – fantastic news!

Also, on the "Tesla" comparison, that’s a misunderstanding of the point being made. This isn't about directly equating ITM with Tesla—it’s about drawing parallels in how technology companies that focus on innovation can disrupt and lead markets. If someone finds the conversation too "in-depth," that's fine, but dismissing it as ridiculous feels a bit narrow-minded, don’t you think?

I think we need to clarify what "pioneer" really means. If companies like Shell, RWE, and Linde are consistently choosing ITM's products over others, doesn’t that say something about the innovation and trust in our technology? Being a pioneer isn’t just about being the first but also about leading in quality, performance, and reliability in a competitive space.

Yes, competition—especially from cheaper manufacturers—is a challenge, but it's also a sign of a growing, high-potential market. If green hydrogen expands to the levels we're discussing, the field will undoubtedly become more competitive. However, I believe ITM is positioned well to stay ahead by continuing to deliver high-quality, industry-leading solutions.

Neso (National Energy System Operator) visited ITM Power’s gigafactory in Sheffield and shared on LinkedIn that the experience made hydrogen “very real” for them. Liked by Dennis; big news.

Toneman: Here’s a revised and enhanced version:

I’m struggling to take you seriously now, especially after your claim that companies with high-priced products have low multipliers was proven wrong. Despite this, you persist with insults rather than engaging with the facts. ITM isn’t like NVIDIA or ASML; but like them we’re pioneering a revolutionary product that will transform the energy landscape. A*se

If you’re looking for examples outside of hydrogen and Tesla, tech companies like NVIDIA and ASML come to mind. These companies have high margins (gross margins over 50% for NVIDIA and ASML) and growth multipliers in the 30x–50x range, depending on market conditions. They’re capital-intensive but benefit from scaling and premium pricing on cutting-edge products.

Poker —

Yes PEM electrolyzers are expensive to make, so margins right now are likely low, especially with R&D and operational costs. But as production scales, economies of scale and automation should push gross margins upward—potentially to around 20–30% over time, based on industry trends for high-tech equipment. With net margins typically lower than gross (around 10–15%), you’d be looking at £40–75 million in earnings on 500mw per year.

Valuation then depends on growth potential. For a fast-growing, high-demand sector like green hydrogen, earnings multipliers (P/E ratios) could range from 30x (conservative) to 50x+ in a bullish market. That puts a potential valuation anywhere from £1.2 billion to £3.75 billion, but this hinges on proving profitability at scale.

Margins are everything, but ITM’s long-term value rests on demand for hydrogen and their ability to reduce costs while Linde handles sales for larger projects.

3/4 lack depth for a reply, please go into them more and happy to discuss

2) ITM Power does have ties to Germany through a partnership with Linde, which helps them access the German and broader EU markets.

Bilbo, 1) ITM cutting iridium use by 40% helps lower costs, boosting its ability to compete with cheap Chinese electrolysers. EU policies already favour local production, with subsidies tied to sourcing transparency and quality, aiming to reduce reliance on China. Meanwhile, the U.S. is also shutting out China from tapping into its green hydrogen incentives, ensuring federal loans and subsidies go to domestic or allied producers.

Whoever told you that expensive items automatically mean lower multiples clearly needs to rethink that. A quick look at the market shows that high-value products, especially in growth sectors, can actually command higher multiples due to their potential. Anyway, I’ve enjoyed the conversation!

Also PEM electrolyzers are high-tech, and while the margins might be around 20-30%, the idea that expensive items automatically justify lower multiples is a misconception. High-cost, high-value products like PEMs often attract higher multiples because of their long-term potential and high revenue per unit.

PEM technology is critical to the green hydrogen revolution, and ITM’s ability to scale up production will drive down costs over time, improving margins. The key driver for multiples is growth—and ITM’s potential to scale from £15 million to 500MW per year by 2030, with the global demand for hydrogen, will support a higher multiple, even with more expensive products.

For high-growth tech companies, the typical revenue multiple is 10x, but for disruptive companies like Tesla, it’s often much higher—20x to 30x at times, depending on market sentiment and future growth projections. Tesla, for example, has traded at 30x revenue in its peak years because of its growth potential and market disruption. So, a 10x or even 25x multiple for ITM isn’t out of the question, especially with the scale-up potential in green hydrogen.

Toneman:

I get where you’re coming from, but the 10x revenue multiple still makes sense, and even 25x isn’t impossible. ITM’s going from £15 million in revenue to 500MW per year by 2030, which is massive growth

As for Linde taking 50% of the profits on joint projects, it doesn’t really impact the multiple. ITM still owns the tech and the growth potential. With Linde backing them, the volume of deals and scale of production will more than make up for the shared profits. If ITM hits those growth targets, a higher multiple—like 25x—could easily happen.

I don’t pay much attention to one short position above 0.5%. Are we really supposed to believe they’re the only ones in the know? I’m not a professional trader, but I have friends who are—they’d tell you shorts and buys are driven by sentiment more than anything. That’s exactly what I think is happening with ITM right now.

ITM Power has raised over £300 million, Linde bought a 20% stake. While pension funds are showing interest, it isn’t as simple. The launch of Great British Energy will help make green hydrogen more accessible to larger institutions.