Member Info for JeffMills

Let’s not forget, we’re already over £100 million in contracted revenue, over 100mw and we’re just one month into 2025. It's not out of the question that the 50MW feeds could convert into contracts for 2026, plus there’s a significant pipeline of opportunities still to come. When you consider how ITM could go from £22 million in revenue one year to potentially £100 million or more the next, you can start to see how 500MW is well within reach. If you follow the numbers and the trajectory, it’s clear why Dennis, myself, and other long-term holders are so excited about what's ahead. The growth potential is undeniable.

I also saw Dennis address a question about Neptune V's rapid expansion, and he outlined a solid strategy: 1. Expanding their existing factory, 2. Building a new one, or 3. Partnering up to scale. That’s a very bullish outlook for me. Ceres released some decent results yesterday, but the stock dropped initially. It's great to see it bounce back today. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a retest of 40p tomorrow. That's be signing off for tonight, good discussion.

Dennis believes we’re on track to capture 30% of the green hydrogen electrolyser market, which, considering RWE's target of 2GW by 2030, would mean we’re eyeing up 600MW in market share by the end of the decade. To put this in perspective, the UK’s hydrogen target is 10GW by 2030, and the EU’s is aiming for an impressive 40GW by the same year.

So when we talk about needing 400MW-500MW to break even, by 2027, that’s going to sound almost insignificant in the context of these larger market dynamics.

In short, in a few years, that 400MW won’t even raise an eyebrow—it’ll be a stepping stone to much bigger things.

Tuna, as a long-term holder, I’m struggling to understand what you’re saying. Do you believe 500MW is a lot? Dennis has always been conservative, so I expect the actual figure to be well below 400MW, and I agree with Laurie on this.

As for being "far off," let’s put things into perspective—a company that was turning over just £15M last year is now has contracts worth over 100m.

And 500MW? That’s a relatively small number in the grand scheme of things. I think a lot of people here are seeing the 500MW FID as the only major milestone, but I fully expect a few more to come this year.

Regardless of the exact figure, let's put this into perspective. We currently have 120MW–140MW under construction, all set for completion by 2027. On top of that, there's a 50MW feed scheduled to be operational by 2027. We've also been tasked with rapidly delivering multiple 10MW plants across the UK, conservatively estimating another 50MW for a single customer by 2028

Beyond that, the 500MW FID and factory space extend through 2028, meaning we’re looking at a total of 740MW over the next three years—averaging 280MW per year. And let’s not forget, we’re only in the first month of 2025.

Now, with HAR2 about to come online, the trajectory is clear: we are on track to be profitable by year-end 2027, with a share price reflecting £500M in revenue.

I don’t think the timing of profitability is some big secret to competitors, but I do agree it was just a rough estimate—especially since a similar figure was mentioned over a year ago.The key takeaway is that Neptune V’s higher margins mean profitability comes faster, and that’s what really matters.

I believe he mentioned 300MW to 400MW based on the pricing of Tridents, though I’d need to listen back to be sure. He also brought up Neptune V’s. yes, and I took that to mean the Neptune V (5MW units) has a higher margin, which would mean a much lower MW requirement to hit profitability/break even.

One last thing—as a long-term holder, I was always under the impression that the RWE 200MW project was more of an opportunity for ITM to prove itself rather than a direct liability. Essentially, RWE covers everything, allowing ITM to showcase the biggest PEM on the planet without taking on the risk. I could be wrong, but today seemed to confirm that.

Either way, it’s not an issue—RWE has a 2GW target by 2030, and Dennis didn’t just pull that 30% market share figure out of thin air. Also interesting was the mention of a potential U.S. factory, though with Trump in the picture, that’s clearly on hold for now.

On top of that, HAR 2 payments are imminent according to dennis, with confirmation they’re expected in the coming months. So why some people in here are telling others to sell is beyond me. LSE letting Ricky keep making new accounts after bans is a joke—guy’s a weirdo.

While everyone’s been focused on other things today, I think this has flown under the radar. The FEED contract for a 50MW project in the EU could be moving to FID in the next few months,

VOLTh2 just signed a deal with Evonik to supply them green hydrogen, replacing grey, via a 50mw hydrogen plant. This lines up perfectly with ITM’s FEED project, which is set to be ready by 2027. Growth is coming fast now—things are really starting to take off. Dennis even liked it on LinkedIn, which is always a good sign.

There was plenty of discussion on today’s update, and I thought it was excellent. To summarise my take: it’s fantastic to see cash burn slowing down by over 10% again. For the first time, we’ve been given a tangible figure to relate to MW, with 135m already contracted. Given that every signed contract is set for completion by 2027, it’s clear that revenue is on the verge of a major surge. As I mentioned before, the growth from this year to next will be a huge catalyst for the SP to take off.

Another standout moment was Dennis’ comment during the investor conference, where he stated that ITM could potentially secure 30% of the EU market. He also noted that profitability would require sales of around 300-400MW, based on the tridents. With everything aligning, the trajectory for ITM looks incredibly strong.

Ricky showed his ignorance by acting like the only two shorts above 0.5% were a sign that ITM was a bad investment. The reality is, shorting is a standard part of the landscape for 99% of growth companies before they go into profit

Shorts would have felt safe knowing big projects like the 500MW FID, the 100MW with Shell, and the 200MW with RWE don’t show on the books until completion. But IMO, the last couple of months with the Neptune V 5MW project would have definitely caught them off guard. As we discussed yesterday, the break-even point is around 80m, so just 20 of these would push ITM into that zone. My guess is they’ve stuck around hoping for an easy exit with a potential policy shift from Trump, but it looks like the EU is moving ahead faster since trump was voted in. Even bullish me is pleasantly surprised by the last few weeks. Imagine if the 500MW deal landed now? Maybe the Australian news will help push that along.

£2.66 per share based on below when ITM are doing just 200mw per year making 51million profit.

This is gross profit, not net profit. Net profit would be lower, as it would account for other expenses like taxes, interest, and additional operating costs beyond the break-even point. But an educated guess would be:

60% of £85.1 million =

£51.1 million net profit on a turnover of 172m.

P/E of 30: £55 million x 30 = £1.65 billion

Anybody questioning ITM’s ability to sell is ridiculous—put it this way, ITM is on course to sell 200 MW+ in 2026 alone.

From below, break-even point is around 80m. So, they could make a potential profit of £85.1 million from the 200 MW RWE deal. I got this by calculating the revenue from 200 MW at £4.3 million per 5 MW unit, which equals £172 million, then subtracting the £86.9 million break-even point. However, Linde would be taking a percentage of this profit.

In regard to cash burn, they’d need to turnover around £75-80 million to break even. Here’s how that makes sense: their loss is £27.1 million, which is what they need to cover to stop burning cash. If their gross margin is around 35% (so 35p of every £1 they make goes towards fixed costs), you divide the £27.1 million by 0.35 to work out how much total revenue they’d need to cover those costs.

That gives you roughly £77 million. It’s a rough estimate, but it’s based on their loss and a typical margin for this type of business.

Do you think the sale of 4 Neptune V’s at £4.3 million each over the last two months will be reflected in the guidance, or will it be incorporated into the growing 2026 forecast? With the RWE 200 MW, shells 100mw, these Neptune V’s, plus upcoming FIDs and feeds, there’s clear potential for growth. I’d hope the market isn’t as short-sighted as you, but then again are you an investor or a day trader?

Here’s what I’m thinking about the ITM and RWE 200MW deal:

The first 100MW is set to be commissioned this year, so it’s possible we see that reflected in ITM’s 2025 revenue. Now, RWE received £520M in German government funds for their 300MW plant plus hydrogen storage facility at Gronau-Epe. That funding covers 70% of the projects, which means the total cost is around £740M for both.

For comparison, the 100MW electrolyser plant at Rostock by RWE also had 70% funding—£170M—putting its total cost at £242M. From this, it seems reasonable to estimate the infrastructure might be under £150M, leaving over £100M for the 100mw electrolysers themselves.

Applying that to Lingen, £200M for the 200MW project seems realistic. If ITM books £100M for the first 100MW this year, that’s massive growth compared to their recent £22M revenue. Could we see the full £200M in 2026? Either way, this is shaping up to be a game-changer. Only as a long term holder you do proper research, otherwise you just read headlines.

https://www.rwe.com/en/press/rwe-ag/2024-07-15-german-and-state-governments-grant-funding-for-large-hydrogen-projects-by-rwe/

Neptune V's are moving faster than most expected, just as we’ve been saying they would. Let’s sum up the past two months:

November: We sold our first Neptune V to Guttroff GmbH.

December: Signed a 50MW feed for Neptune Vs. Three days later, sold another three units (15MW) to a privately owned German company.

Today: Signed a 10MW feed (two Neptune Vs) with another EU company, which plans to deploy several times across the UK—likely between 3 and 7 deployments, so let’s call it 5. That’s another 50MW.

In total, that’s 130MW worth of Neptune Vs in just two months. And guess what? We’ve still got 11 months of 2025 to go. To Ricky: get lost, mate. Go make another account if you need to—your antics are pathetic.

We’ve had more RNS announcements about contracts and feeds in the past two months than in the past two years. This is exactly what we long-term holders have been waiting for, and I couldn’t be more excited.

So we know its a EU energy company who we've not dealt with before. It's definitely not RWE, or shell then.

I'm thinking TotalEnergies. They've been ramping up green hydrogen projects and investing into UK.