Member Info for jdt1990

I quote "If the UK ordered 5m test per month at a profit of £1m that would be £12m per annum"
£1m/5m tests = tadaaaa 20p profit per test.
So if your £1m profit is a 20% margin, you are assuming the test sell for £1??? We know that is not going to be the case.

Wyndrum have you been on the sauce early on this sunny day?
Firstly, at what point did you decide UK manufacturing capacity is going to be sold in the UK to the govt? The 5m will be for Europe and then the extra is if they get access to govt equipment.
Secondly, do you not think cash burn decelerates as you have the product to market?
Thirdly, 20p profit per test, are you mad? We were told price point of mid single figures so £5-7, you think it costs £5-7 to make one?
I did some numbers already....
https://twitter.com/YorkshirPuddin/status/1385534351010566145

Sell up, but some NCYT and F off then

Demand > supply - Room for more than one player. No S&S numbers anyway....its not an elephant at all.

Lol looks like another day of the nervous nellies who need to sell their imaginary shares and F off.
Very simple. Let’s just say the business is valued at 1 x revenue (understated), lft demand is 12 months (understated), revenue per test is £7 (understated) and avg capacity is 10m per month (likely understated).
That’s 840m in LFT revenue alone before you add in ANYTHING ELSE!
So people moaning about 5-30m capacity not being able to support the market cap or the commercials were poor can JOG RIGHT ON!

Tbf urbansea they had less than an hour (plus 10 mins of what turned out to be dog sh*t question time) to try and run through everything Avct had going on at the moment. Nye on impossible I would say unless AS spoke at 1000mph. Bear in mind also, what they are talking about isnt biscuit packing it’s cutting edge science being explained to Joe Bloggs, needs time.
Think there was a conscious effort to give the mob what they wanted i.e. the “where’s my test brigade” but also showcase the long term future of the business to LTHs with therapeutics stuff. Not much room for anything else in any detail.
Real shame the Qs covered everything spoken about in the prezzo. I know they sometimes post written responses to the Qs they couldn’t fit in (where possible) a while after the prezzo.
Maybe some of the stuff you thought was missing will get an answer. I specifically asked about progress on the neutralising therapy.

Spot on carlotowl - the therapeutics will make a very welcome change from LFT chat.
The slide today where it stated the $56bn chemo market was limited due to the fact human body could only tolerate a limited amount of the drug.
Just imagine if Avct could reduce the toxicity to the body, prove it up in clinical human trials, allowing more dosage. Of course the big win there is the fact this would help many fight a horrendous disease.
BUT that $56bn industry would get a hell of a lot bigger and Avct would blow the door right open of the current competitors.
It’s disruptive tech in the pharma world and I love it.

Bottmzup.....Dr google just diagnosed you, might see your pal Ndn71 in therapy.
Narcissistic personality disorder — one of several types of personality disorders — is a mental condition in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance, a deep need for excessive attention and admiration, troubled relationships, and a lack of empathy for others.

It's just an expiry date right for the at home use EUA, they could extend it.
Also the Bidstats contract that was announced 9th Apr concluded 13th March so it's historic not fwd looking.
I've given up guessing what the hell the govt are up to....

I’d probably be peed off at the sheer volume of impatient PIs if I were him Phantom.
Trying to do what he and the Avct team are doing, growing a potentially multi Bn business, with fairly small resources relative to other pharmas in the midst of a global pandemic. AND despite what many say, delivering value to the business. Look at the RNSs this quarter (plus AVA in Q4 2020).
Then all you get in your inbox is “where’s the test” “is it ready yet” from impatient and blinkered PIs.
Least with the ii briefing he knows they’ll be after some juicy info on the multiple potentially company making avenues that are on offer.
Luckily we got the RNS this week on CV but I can guess what 99% of the PI Qs will be tomorrow!

What? But I thought because there were single figure deaths in the UK its all over????
You mean to tell me there is more than just a UK market for testing?

The fact that the other trade is for the exact amount and off book would suggest that's a buy and sell / transfer between two parties.

So the SINT trade is a systematic internaliser trade.
"A Systematic Internaliser (SI) is an investment firm which, on an organised, frequent systematic and substantial basis deals on own account when executing client orders outside a regulated market, an MTF or an OTF without operating a multilateral system."
While Trading Venues are facilities in which multiple third-party buying and selling interests interact in the system, a systematic internaliser is not permitted to bring together third-party buying and selling interests in functionally the same way as a Trading Venue. So a Systematic Internaliser (“SI”) is an investment firm which is a counterparty dealing with its proprietary capital and is not a trading venue.

Innova test / Xiamen Biotime is a "for professional use only test" and rightly so given it is nasopharyngeal and nobody will willingly poke theirs or their kids brains out properly. Why do you think the real world S&S of Innova is so poor!? The MHRA basically white labelled it (hence why the one you collect from the pharmacy is in an NHS branded box) and they gave it an EUA exemption.

Hopefully with the results AVCT have produced and being AN, this should reduce the disparity between clinical and real world results. I would think this gives us a good shot at home use authorisation, but it will be for professional use only at the very start.

Here's a quote from the BMJ on it:
"Regulation grey zone
Lateral flow tests occupy a strange, deregulated grey zone. Most such “in vitro diagnostic tests” can be declared by their manufacturers as conforming to the UK Medical Device Regulations 2002. A UK approved body approves tests for higher risk infections, such as HIV, or if it is a self-testing kit. The list of high risk infections is outdated and doesn’t include SARS-CoV-2. So, manufacturers can self-declare covid-19 tests for professional use. The only stipulation is that they must be carried out by trained staff: they cannot be simply rolled out as part of a self-testing programme.

That said, they can be used for research purposes. Innova’s test was piloted for community testing in Liverpool last year. And the MHRA has issued an exemption for the Innova test so that, even though it is approved only for use by professionals, it can be sent out for self-testing under the NHS testing programme. This has highlighted the need to reform the regulations, at least in the UK."
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n287

I was having a giggle at this last night....
https://twitter.com/carlsmythe/status/1384522354785726471

The practicalities of PCR never really made sense to me full stop because of turnaround times.
"You need a negative PCR test within 72 hours of your flight" then you can just hop on your plane care free.
I have absolutely no idea what anyone on that plane has been doing in the 72 hours post their test. They could literally have spent 2 days licking Covid laced petri dishes, be asymptomatic and they can still board the plane.
Surely a test done on the spot is the ONLY way to effectively determine if someone has the virus.
Of course, PCR for detecting variants from high risk countries makes sense, but green zone countries....no

Absolutely - there is a very clear push from some of the science community around the "detecting every case counts" idea and that PCR being so sensitive is the way the world should go. Aside form the fact nothing is ever 100% accurate, exactly what you say, with AVCTs S&S figures performing so well at the generally agreed Ct values for infectiousness, not only can they pick up genuinely positive cases in sufficient levels to suppress the virus but accurate enough to avoid false positives where people are actually post infectious. That then allows economies to reopen and peoples livelihoods not crushed by oversensitive PCR tests deeming people positive for isolation on viral loads too low to be infectious.
This test is a huge weapon against Covid whilst avoiding the economic catastrophe lockdown is causing at a cost of £500m a day.

Exactly that - the govt were pushing the vaccine silver bullet rhetoric whilst they have the safety net of a lockdown to help "back up" the numbers. That's the hedge to keeping momentum on one of their very few successes in this pandemic and want to keep spinning it as long as possible. Anyone with half a brain knows the lockdown is the main driver behind cases dropping. The people out spreading were predominantly the ones who are unvaccinated (under 40 with no underlying medical conditions).
Now they have committed to a reopening date and their hedge of lockdown is gone, the govt are sh*tting their pants that it will all become very clear to the average Joe that vaccines are NOT the silver bullet and the govt have been deficient in other areas. Hence NOW and only very recently the huge change in messaging around testing.

Sisu thank the lord there's still a few left on this bb that get it and share useful insights!
This is exactly what Michael Mina has been saying to quash the likes of Deeks and the anti LFT brigade. Nothing will ever be 100% S&S in a real world setting at scale....fact. So having tests that are rapid and cheap (as well as very very accurate of course) means the concept of confirmatory testing via LFT's is very much doable. PCR will then only be requires to screen for variants.
As you say, likelihood of two false readings in a row reduced exponentially with an additional test.

Think we had this debate with RegulatorUK on ODX didn't we sleepydave? March version of DPS suggests alternatives to 3A validation at PD could be accepted. So its possible it wont need to go back through them.
“Phase 3A Validation” is an evaluation against human samples containing a) SARS-CoV-2
antigens and b) samples that are confirmed as SARS-CoV-2 negative by PCR. The objective is
to ensure LFDs perform at the minimum threshold levels to be potentially suitable candidates
for use as a nationally deployed LFD as part of the Government’s Test & Trace strategy. It seeks
to validate that LFDs have a low failure rate, are acceptable for use with their operators and
achieve acceptable levels of sensitivity and specificity. It is a clinical laboratory scientist
evaluation assessment using human samples. It uses frozen human samples obtained from a
biorepository. It is important as it enables an assessment against human samples and
determines LFD sensitivity, specificity and kit failure rate. It consists of testing against a panel
of 200 known positive and 1000 negative human samples, which number may be varied as
considered appropriate by PHE Porton Down from time to time. This form of testing is
important as samples from individuals may be different to laboratory manufactured viral
particles and may lead to different performance insights of the devices. Phase 3A Validation is
currently undertaken at PHE Porton Down. During the duration of the DPS, DHSC may identify
another regime(s), whether or not undertaken at PHE Porton Down, that may or shall be used
to achieve the same objective in which event “Phase 3A Validation” shall, for the purposes of
this Specification, the DPS Information Document, and any Application, mean validation by
such regime.
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