Member Info for jdt1990

Have a read through this - from someone who is based in German so has experience of how it is working in at least 1 EU member state.
https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1398223364548878344
EU list of approved tests here with all their details:
https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/default/files/preparedness_response/docs/covid-19_rat_common-list_en.pdf
Price we've been told is mid single digits £ with an assumed 30% margin from equity analyst papers produced, so use that as base case add your own premium for EU sales should you wish.
You're welcome. All info in public domain if you're willing to look.
Although I'm sure all the above was written in the doji candles and bolli bands.

"I consider the UK, not because I am UK centric, but simply that is my area of experience. I don't "quote" what is happening in the RoW because I have no way of knowing what is true or not."
But Wyn - do you now see why you get backlash? You're views are by that nature UK centric because you can't/wont comment on the RoW.
Yet it has been very well advertised by AS that Europe (of which the UK is no longer part of) is/was the focus for the sale of AffiDx tests. Potentially further afield too who knows.
So how can you make assumptions on the potential progress of AVCT when you simply consider the one side of the Affidx sales route, and at that, as it stands, the least lucrative!?

Agreed wick fit the no test if vaxxed view is silly IMO because they have no idea how long it’s effective for. What if you were vaxxed 6-9-12 months ago, they can’t verify your level of protection.
The no test if you’ve had COViD is ludicrous - again they can test for antibodies but who know what level of them you have after 6 months. Long term effectiveness of vaccine or post infection antibodies are far from known.
At £5 a test - just do everyone regrdless

Certainly not a crazy notion, although if they are, it would be at levels lower than 3% of the company otherwise we would have seen a TR1 by now.

They don’t detect much going by the real world S&S figures given it’s a nasopharyngeal test crazily given EUA for at home use!

36,429 to be exact

iPhone- heard of this thing called the world? It’s a big place outside the UK where vaccinations aren’t being rolled out at lightning pace, vaccine hesitancy is higher and testing is much more widely accepted.
UK is not the only market here!

It’s only 750k shares and it will have been done over a couple of days.
Average volume here is about 1.8m shares per day so by end of today will have quite quickly been mopped up.

They also sold a chunk of BUR they had a TR1 Monday so looks like a wider business decision not Avct related (as we suspected anyway). Nothing to see here apart from a buying opp IMO
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BUR/tr1-notification-of-major-holdings-almfe1d3yabngmo.html

To be fair, they’ve made 100% on their investment at £1.20 so it could just be to do with risk allocation as part of a wider portfolio. Just overexposed due to the gains - instis will always have much tighter controls than us PIs…..clients to answer to!
Doesn’t concern me in the slightest. Timing very much suggests this isn’t a decision based on Avct sentiment but on prescribed protocols in the business.

Eugh the word funding just sends shivers down my spine with NCCL….who knows what crazily complex arrangement they’ll come up with to fund these.
Kind of see what they’re trying to do in making a business for them should they end up being bought out of the coal project by CMEC but at what expense to shareholder I guess we have to wait and see!

Hi TallPaul - No there wont have been an application put in for at home use 10th May.
The slide in the 22nd April presentation said " Working in parallel towards CE marking for consumer self-testing" so things are underway, but if you have a listen to Q6 of the Q&A, AS makes it very clear there is a more stringent process to go though for home use with additional audits etc.
He said it would have to be done by EOY to be any use in the pandemic situation so I think that's our only guidance so far. I have a feeling the Medusa day scaredy went to is part of the required study for home use application but am pretty sure the application wont have gone in yet.
EUA is likely the route initially in Europe and UK/

Puts to bed the initial funding concerns IMO. Onwards and upwards to first gold pour. Assume they’ll get third party to process first batch and look to have their own processing facility up and running longer term maybe?

I think so and tbh even when the Europe registration comes, the market is now looking for more detail on cost/orders/capacity etc before the real rerate comes.
The below wording form that doc shows just how important the Spain work was as that's the ticket to meeting the criteria of c)
" A common list of COVID-19 rapid antigen tests that are considered appropriate for
use in the context of the situations described in the Council Recommendation, that are
in line with countries’ testing strategies and that:
a. carry CE marking;
b. meet the minimum performance requirements of = 90% sensitivity and = 97%
specificity; and
c. have been validated by at least one Member State as being appropriate for their
use in the context of COVID-19, providing details on the methodology and
results of such studies, such as the sample type used for validation, the setting
in which the use of the test was assessed, and whether any difficulties occurred
as regards the required sensitivity criteria or other performance elements."

Tall Paul - we do have a CE mark. That part is purely self certification. AS even says it himself in the RNS:
"I am delighted to receive confirmation of the registration of the AffiDX® SARS-CoV-2 antigen test from the MHRA. It is a transformative milestone for Avacta's Diagnostics Division being the first CE marked product powered by the Affimer® platform that has been brought to market."
The website also now has CE marks plastered all over it which would not be allowed if we didn't have one.

What we are waiting for in Europe is the equivalent body to the MHRA to approve the conformity documentation which facilitates the registration of AffiDx in Europe. That is key to getting on this list of authorised tests.

https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/default/files/preparedness_response/docs/covid-19_rat_common-list_en.pdf

I think all the oompa loompas are busy warming up the glue guns (again) at the ODX shack

Would be criminal if they did that poirot!
Someone posted on Twitter some wording from their EUA which stated they are only provided should there be no suitable CE marked test available.
Well there’s a good few out there now and Avct working on CE mark for at home use too.
This could hot up quite quickly

Many businesses (which for the purposes of this discussion are of course larger businesses with hundreds/thousands of employees, not your local butchers) and people are international Wyn, not everything revolves around 60m people on a tiny island called the UK. Global vaccination will take a lot longer to roll out....not to mention the fact booster jab requirements in the western world will no doubt take away supply for the developing world (sadly that's how it goes).
Also the concept of herd immunity where an arbitrary number of people are either vaccinated/exposed just isn't that simple.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2
Testing will have its place for a good while yet in relation to Covid and if there's one thing to be learned, we damn sure need to be prepared for the next one of these. Not to mention, this pandemic could have opened the door for much wider use of lateral flow testing for other viruses.
Again - Outside of this UK centric world you live in. Think Ebola for example where it could be funded by various organisations, in the same way Bill Gates was looking to help with Covid testing for low income countries.

Well of course course if people are too ill to work you have to pay them sick pay, but that's what the vaccine is there to do, reduce the severity of symptoms/deaths. I am talking about the need for testing to reduce transmission/spread. A number of industries will be able to accommodate a WFH capability should you test positive.

Obviously (as I very clearly stated, some industries will not be able to do that). Cost of testing likely to be covered by the employer. No financial burden on staff and for the employer ok there is additional costs but that is Vs cost of someone coming in and taking out your workforce/halting your businesses operations. Prevention is cheaper than the cure and all that

"You take a £10 test because you are not feeling well. And then (instead of going in like olden days) to work you self isolate for 2 weeks. Sick pay will go through the roof, and therefore sick pay (where people get it) will be reduced or removed."

Not sure if you've heard of this concept that cropped up in that last year....working from home! Should you have to isolate (if infectious), plenty of businesses are geared up to WFH and therefore no burden on employee or employer.
Obviously not all businesses can operate a WFH policy but it would hardly cripple the economy as you are suggesting.