Member Info for jdt1990

TKOTM I beg to differ. Have you read through the presentation?
Agreed there is a 700m peak sales quoted for the fertility drug (AZD5904) to which on slide 15 they state a 148m NPV.
That is very separate to the $716m NPV they state on slide 12 for AZD1656. Which has multiple use cases and that 716m is in fairness broken down per use case and 153m is quoted on slide 16 as the c19 specific NPV so yes I stand corrected on the assumption vela would only be entitled to a cut of the drugs C19 use but you are also not 100% accurate in your statement.
Even 8% of that number is multiples of current mcap which is £7m so it’s worth some positivity.

What a brilliant find Rise.
Amazing to see they anticipate an NPV for their share of $700m. So the value to Vela for the 8% they receive above 19m is potentially company changing!
The only explanation I could see for the silence is that these negotiations are covered by some form of non disclosure so nothing can be leaked until a deal is done?

Yeah odd not mentioned in the RNS but from the Sept interims RNS it was Velcade...
"The next most advanced pre|CISION™ pro-drug is AVA3996, a FAP-activated analogue of Velcade, Takeda's proteasome inhibitor which comes off patent in 2022. The global proteasome inhibitors market size is expected to be worth $1.7 billion by 2023 (source) and Velcade represents just over half of that market. As with all chemotherapies the benefit of these drugs is limited by toxicities and tolerability for patients. In the case of Velcade, there are significant side effects such as peripheral neuropathy which has limited its approval, principally to multiple myeloma. A potentially safer proteasome inhibitor, such as AVA3996, could win significant market share for the treatment of multiple myeloma and also be used to treat solid tumours, such as pancreatic cancer. Pancreatic cancer also exhibits the highest level of FAP activity of any solid tumour and therefore a FAP activated pro-drug could have significant potential in this area of high unmet need."

AgentB - The Covid opportunity, even at it's height was nowhere near the size of the current oncology market opportunity for Avacta (Circa $56Bn annually to which it has been floated Avacta could target 10% of that).
The 56Bn is currently limited due to the toxicity of those chemo drugs - so reduce toxicity and that market increases significantly! Sadly, cancer will never move to an "endemic status" that we "learn to live with"
So - at no point was C19 testing the long term value driver for the business. It was (and still is IMO) a valuable revenue generator to fund the true value driver, minimizing any cash calls to the market.
He is simply refocusing investors back to where it should be...and nicely times really as hopefully the LFT pitchfrok herd have now moved on and a new solid, long term investor base can reform.

Agreed - when you look at the historical timing of the trading update RNS's it was:
18Jan 2018
21Jan 2019
23 Jan 2020
24 Feb 2021

So they have no issues pushing it out a little if necessary...would be nice to see AVA6000 first read outs before that (or included in it)

Be good to see where the land lies....
https://twitter.com/79Jadds/status/1483419377307373570

It’s also a hint that the Ava6000 trial is still on track time wise IMO….with this starting as DE phase comes to an end

Also the 0.1% threshold applies to private notifications only, not public, that remains at 0.5%

Private share notifications
A private share notification must be made when the net short position in shares reaches 0.1% of the issued share capital of the company concerned, and again at each 0.1% change above 0.1%.

This relates to both a 0.1% increase and decrease of the position (including each time the position drops below 0.1%).

Public share notifications
A public share notification must be made when the net short positions of shares reach 0.5% of the issued share capital of the company concerned, and again at each 0.1% change above 0.5%.

This change relates to both a 0.1% increase and decrease of the position (including each time the position drops below 0.5%).

To make a public notification, fill in a Net Short Position share notification type on ESS and submit this to us. We will make this information available on our website if the position reaches or crosses the 0.5% threshold.

If you have previously disclosed a position publicly and that position then falls below 0.5%, you must make a new disclosure.

Hi Gr33ning. Agreed that the FCA now state as of Feb 21 the min reporting threshold went from 0.2% to 0.1%.
However, when you look on the daily short report the FCA produce - there is no position there under 0.5% so I am not convinced the FCA daily reporting ties up to the conditions they state on their website (as there is no way no companies shave shorts out there between 0.1% and 0.4%)
Regardless, hopefully some news on AVA6000 and pro velcade closes them all out anyway!
https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fca.org.uk%2Fpublication%2Fdata%2Fshort-positions-daily-update.xlsx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK

It's not actually 100% confirmed Bronte closed out. Don;t use LSE use shorttracker, that is up to date.
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BYYW9G87/
Bronte's short dropped from 0.51% to 0.49% on 12 Jan. Below 0.5% the shorts are no longer reportable, hence the full position dropped off the graph and is no longer reportable. So Bronte's could be anywhere from 0.49% to 0%.
Jupiter is definitely unchnaged.

£37m of cash as at end of June 2021 with 6mth cash outflow of around £11m. However, a chunk of that cash outflow will be getting AVA6000 into clinical trials and AffiDx to a commercialised position which is now complete, that wont be an ongoing cost. So you can't look into that as a 2m per month cash burn as some would suggest.
Not to mention, post period to end June 2021, AffiDx started selling via Calibre (Aug 2021) and there was the undisclosed milestone payment from LGChem (Sept)
Been made very clear funded until 2023 EXCLUDING any revenues from LFT. I expect to see a solid balance sheet come EOY to put any "desperate Q2 2022" funding needs to bed as old Bishop/Wyndrum likes to spout!

Agreed - it's clearly all focus on the SGS trial - you can see why though, as that was the investment that was potentially going to give a chunk of holders the classic AIM "quick buck" they wanted. AIM struggles to wait.
VELA clearly building up a nice portfolio but its essentially a Venture Capital firm so it was always going to take time to bear real fruit. Cumulative solid investments will hopefully see this grow organically.
JN has an impeccable track record.
Consolidation should help take some of the drag away from having 16Bn shares in issue too. At current Mcap of 7m it's not a bad long term play to tuck away in the SIPP IMO.

Access to leverage certainly has a part to play and as you say, when you get people in tricky situations (such as earning a chunk of furlough money and some extra time on their hands) where do they go, the glorified bookies known as AIM. Having no idea what they are doing, just follow chat boards/twitter...prime pickings for the snakes of this game.
It's madness that via a phone app, someone can get 10x leverage on a swap/CFD position, so in essence getting 100k of exposure they certainly cannot afford. Add in some volatility and it's not hard to see how the holders of these positions can't afford the margin and get closed out.
It's the perils of modern day retail investing (gambling). Only put in what you can afford to lose and unless you are experienced in the CFD world, stay away from leveraged trading....

No Jupiter's remained the same - Bronte Capital closed theirs

It’s good to see goldstone have got ~1500oz produced. Looking forward to some progress in Jan/Feb after the disappointing recovery rate issues:
-Pad 3 stacking
-Updated DEP
-Reviewed production schedule
- Drilling Akrokeri to start
Crossed fingers for 2022

Yeah bishop has done this before. Tries to take the heat off being outed as one of the scumbags on here. Likely wyndrum….then resurfaces after cleaning up a few of the libellous tweets (forgetting screenshots don’t dissaperar). He’ll be back.
As for the king of the dividend Touk….get some nee material, you were spouting this months and months ago. It’s been made clear no dividends. The company has a lot to be funding.

Bishop will have a libel case at some point anyway - that’ll shut him/her up. Claimed
- Avacta had ended M19 relationship
- Ava6000 paused
- Jupiter bought AffiDx and tested it, saw it failed and took out a short (before omicron was even a thing)
Imaginative chap - just thick as two short planks!

Haha true that Jrogers…..in out in out shake the money all about old DJ!

https://twitter.com/GoldstoneRes/status/1481582566637457408

So that's 37Kg of gold. Which will cover the loan payments until Feb (including feb). So I am hoping that gives them the time to sort the agglomeration issues out

A good piece Mr Blue. I am of the opinion we will see the MRE2 in the NCM December quarterly report (due 28th Jan)
Couple of weeks to see:
-What Zipa and Hav North holes contained
-Get an updated MRE (hopefully)
-Results for what will be all growth drilling on SE crescent as all infill completed plus other areas growth drilling

All of which should give even further clarity on what we are looking at here with HAV.

Despite the depressing SP I am looking forward to the next update.