Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I mean now the solar BS is gone and SF has taken his hedge…this is a binary play of does the project come off or not.
I’m 85% down here but funnily enough makes the decision easy to just wait out and hope it does come to fruition.
$20m in back costs at a minimum which is 5x current mcap. Cop26 put the shi*ters up here with worry over coal.
Truth is, Africa needs it, it can be done “cleaner” and China will likely back historical commitments. Worth a punt.
Haha “the Earl” has seen it on the risers board and wonders if there’s a buck to be made. How about finding this stuff out for yourself rather than asking a bb!?
Either way, at 3m mcap, if this project goes ahead there is $21m of agreed historical costs due
Hoping this rally in gold prices times nicely for GRL and the setbacks can be put behind the company.
Latest pad should now have been stacked
Hopefully agglomeration issues addressed
Updated DEP overdue
Hopefully operational update / some forward looking guidance.
Just need Emma to sort out the comms here and restore a bit of faith
That’s definitely one benefit to having Goldstone in the portfolio in that they are producing - not without its setbacks of course - however, the BOD are heavily invested so their interests are aligned to ours as shareholders and they stand to lose just as much if they don’t sort this out. It also reduces the risk significantly of endless dilution from “keep the lights on” placings. They have to fix these issues properly but on a sensible budget
Agreed Hector. That CODE holding is currently worth £1.2m itself vs a £6m mkt cap.
Clearly after the SGS saga Vela has become a little unloved and probably suffered from having so many shares in issue.
However, JN has form with AAA, SGS is far from dead and there have been some decent investments made.
Comms are carp but that’s nothing new on AIM!
Feel there’s plenty to be optimistic about here…
Remember it’s essential a Venture Capital firm so the compounding of what may seem small profits here and there can soon grow the value of the business. It’s one for a bit of a patient hold IMO
TKOTM I beg to differ. Have you read through the presentation?
Agreed there is a 700m peak sales quoted for the fertility drug (AZD5904) to which on slide 15 they state a 148m NPV.
That is very separate to the $716m NPV they state on slide 12 for AZD1656. Which has multiple use cases and that 716m is in fairness broken down per use case and 153m is quoted on slide 16 as the c19 specific NPV so yes I stand corrected on the assumption vela would only be entitled to a cut of the drugs C19 use but you are also not 100% accurate in your statement.
Even 8% of that number is multiples of current mcap which is £7m so it’s worth some positivity.
What a brilliant find Rise.
Amazing to see they anticipate an NPV for their share of $700m. So the value to Vela for the 8% they receive above 19m is potentially company changing!
The only explanation I could see for the silence is that these negotiations are covered by some form of non disclosure so nothing can be leaked until a deal is done?
Yeah odd not mentioned in the RNS but from the Sept interims RNS it was Velcade...
"The next most advanced pre|CISION™ pro-drug is AVA3996, a FAP-activated analogue of Velcade, Takeda's proteasome inhibitor which comes off patent in 2022. The global proteasome inhibitors market size is expected to be worth $1.7 billion by 2023 (source) and Velcade represents just over half of that market. As with all chemotherapies the benefit of these drugs is limited by toxicities and tolerability for patients. In the case of Velcade, there are significant side effects such as peripheral neuropathy which has limited its approval, principally to multiple myeloma. A potentially safer proteasome inhibitor, such as AVA3996, could win significant market share for the treatment of multiple myeloma and also be used to treat solid tumours, such as pancreatic cancer. Pancreatic cancer also exhibits the highest level of FAP activity of any solid tumour and therefore a FAP activated pro-drug could have significant potential in this area of high unmet need."
AgentB - The Covid opportunity, even at it's height was nowhere near the size of the current oncology market opportunity for Avacta (Circa $56Bn annually to which it has been floated Avacta could target 10% of that).
The 56Bn is currently limited due to the toxicity of those chemo drugs - so reduce toxicity and that market increases significantly! Sadly, cancer will never move to an "endemic status" that we "learn to live with"
So - at no point was C19 testing the long term value driver for the business. It was (and still is IMO) a valuable revenue generator to fund the true value driver, minimizing any cash calls to the market.
He is simply refocusing investors back to where it should be...and nicely times really as hopefully the LFT pitchfrok herd have now moved on and a new solid, long term investor base can reform.
Agreed - when you look at the historical timing of the trading update RNS's it was:
18Jan 2018
21Jan 2019
23 Jan 2020
24 Feb 2021
So they have no issues pushing it out a little if necessary...would be nice to see AVA6000 first read outs before that (or included in it)
Be good to see where the land lies....
https://twitter.com/79Jadds/status/1483419377307373570
Also the 0.1% threshold applies to private notifications only, not public, that remains at 0.5%
Private share notifications
A private share notification must be made when the net short position in shares reaches 0.1% of the issued share capital of the company concerned, and again at each 0.1% change above 0.1%.
This relates to both a 0.1% increase and decrease of the position (including each time the position drops below 0.1%).
Public share notifications
A public share notification must be made when the net short positions of shares reach 0.5% of the issued share capital of the company concerned, and again at each 0.1% change above 0.5%.
This change relates to both a 0.1% increase and decrease of the position (including each time the position drops below 0.5%).
To make a public notification, fill in a Net Short Position share notification type on ESS and submit this to us. We will make this information available on our website if the position reaches or crosses the 0.5% threshold.
If you have previously disclosed a position publicly and that position then falls below 0.5%, you must make a new disclosure.
Hi Gr33ning. Agreed that the FCA now state as of Feb 21 the min reporting threshold went from 0.2% to 0.1%.
However, when you look on the daily short report the FCA produce - there is no position there under 0.5% so I am not convinced the FCA daily reporting ties up to the conditions they state on their website (as there is no way no companies shave shorts out there between 0.1% and 0.4%)
Regardless, hopefully some news on AVA6000 and pro velcade closes them all out anyway!
https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fca.org.uk%2Fpublication%2Fdata%2Fshort-positions-daily-update.xlsx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK
It's not actually 100% confirmed Bronte closed out. Don;t use LSE use shorttracker, that is up to date.
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BYYW9G87/
Bronte's short dropped from 0.51% to 0.49% on 12 Jan. Below 0.5% the shorts are no longer reportable, hence the full position dropped off the graph and is no longer reportable. So Bronte's could be anywhere from 0.49% to 0%.
Jupiter is definitely unchnaged.
£37m of cash as at end of June 2021 with 6mth cash outflow of around £11m. However, a chunk of that cash outflow will be getting AVA6000 into clinical trials and AffiDx to a commercialised position which is now complete, that wont be an ongoing cost. So you can't look into that as a 2m per month cash burn as some would suggest.
Not to mention, post period to end June 2021, AffiDx started selling via Calibre (Aug 2021) and there was the undisclosed milestone payment from LGChem (Sept)
Been made very clear funded until 2023 EXCLUDING any revenues from LFT. I expect to see a solid balance sheet come EOY to put any "desperate Q2 2022" funding needs to bed as old Bishop/Wyndrum likes to spout!
Agreed - it's clearly all focus on the SGS trial - you can see why though, as that was the investment that was potentially going to give a chunk of holders the classic AIM "quick buck" they wanted. AIM struggles to wait.
VELA clearly building up a nice portfolio but its essentially a Venture Capital firm so it was always going to take time to bear real fruit. Cumulative solid investments will hopefully see this grow organically.
JN has an impeccable track record.
Consolidation should help take some of the drag away from having 16Bn shares in issue too. At current Mcap of 7m it's not a bad long term play to tuck away in the SIPP IMO.
Access to leverage certainly has a part to play and as you say, when you get people in tricky situations (such as earning a chunk of furlough money and some extra time on their hands) where do they go, the glorified bookies known as AIM. Having no idea what they are doing, just follow chat boards/twitter...prime pickings for the snakes of this game.
It's madness that via a phone app, someone can get 10x leverage on a swap/CFD position, so in essence getting 100k of exposure they certainly cannot afford. Add in some volatility and it's not hard to see how the holders of these positions can't afford the margin and get closed out.
It's the perils of modern day retail investing (gambling). Only put in what you can afford to lose and unless you are experienced in the CFD world, stay away from leveraged trading....