Member Info for JD-Nau

So basically Angus have just saved themselves over 50% of the predicted decommissioning costs. Now we know that they are able to abandon 4 wells for £405,000 then the eight will be £810,000 which means a saving of £965,000.

At Angus' 51% that is a nearly £500k saving. Result.

Seller must be out of the way soon as the news on Angus is too good to keep the share price down for long.

I have been following this share for far more longer than 12 months and believe that this is only the upwards climb.

2p by the end of the month IMO

We got the big trader out of the way last week with millions of shares put on market and the price still went up. I am looking forward to seeing what happens this week with no seller holding the price back. I'm expecting big upward moves this week.

Amazing that you had someone sell over 3% of the company yesterday and the share price is still climbing.

Explode next week is an understatement.

Azerbaijan was in Zenith’s past. We need to look to the future and that is in Africa. The credit rating agencies say that the company is focusing on Africa, the company says it is focusing on Africa and it have both production and exploration assets in Africa. Forget Azerbaijan it doesn’t matter.

The market cap in this is too small to be able to have any solid confidence in its future performance.

Seems over-optimistic to me.

Saltfleetby details: https://mem.lyellcollection.org/content/20/1/911

Gas-in-place 114BCF according to this.

Looking at the potential value of the new asset makes interesting reading:

The RNS tells us that “67 billion cubic feet of dry gas (and 1.1 million barrels of condensate) have been produced during the 20 year period which, records suggest, represents 60% of gas in place. “

So, if 67 bcf is 60% then 100% means that there is 112bcf there in total.

The RNS also says that “recovery of between 70% and 80% is achievable” which means that there is between 11.2bcf and 22.4 bcf that can still be got out as well as another 180,000 – 360,000 barrels of condensate (oil equivalent).

1 cubic foot of gas is 1/1000 of a MmBTU (the unit at which the price of natural gas is fixed) so this means that we would have between 11,200,000 (at 10% recoverable) and 22,400,000 (at 20% recoverable).

At todays gas price of $2.59 per MmBTU then that means that there is:

a) 11,200,000 x $2.59 = $29,000,000 ($14,500,000 net to Angus)
b) 22,400,000 x $2.59 = $58,000,000 ($29,000,000 net to Angus)

So, converted into sterling this is £11 million or £22 million – which is either 50% up or doubling the current market cap.

Even if we have 20% dilution on this then a 20% dilution for a 50% - 100% increase in market cap seems like quite a good deal to me. This does not even include the condensate which at $60 per barrel could be worth another $10 million or so net to Angus.

Penguins – have you got any links to data on Saltfleetby so we can look into it and see if it is a match?

They thing you have to remember with the "Eyes" as they amusingly describe themselves is that they are traders who have eyes on nothing other than their own profits.

If they see equipment arrive or leave then they try to drive the price down on the boards before taking a long position and then publishing their pictures to push the price up and make a quick profit. If the news is bad then they do the reverse.

They rely solely on the fact that they have information before the rest of the market and can therefore use their advance knowledge and the following they have to manipulate the market to their own advantage. The despicable thing about them is that they are simply stealing money from other investors who follow them.

Pboo admitted in his post at 11.01 on Friday 5th April that they had seen the rig arrived and topped up afterwards. If he is telling th e truth then why did his litltle gang not publish this information to "help" other investors? It is for the reasons above. They must have been livid when Tidswell published it himself and this meant that they were no longer ahead of the game.

I hope that Tidswell/Angus continue to post pictures of equipment as it arrives as it will mean that all investors are party to the same information rather than being played by a private gang of rampers who manipulate the rest of us for their own profit.

Don't trust the "Eyes" - they are not your friends and only report what they want you to see and when they want you to see it.

Alan - I don't mean to be rude with my comments by the way. I respect your contribution to this site. It is just that on this occasion I disagree with you.

Alan - this goes back to what I said in my initial post. Your way is much the most efficient if everything runs smoothly, but past experience has clearly shown that things do not run smoothly with Angus. My point, that you are consistently overlooking is that your method of timetabling ONLY makes sense if everything goes well. The Angus methods covers both eventualities.

To say that Angus lose money if they start production 14 days later is nonsense - as the oil is still there. It does not evaporate in the 14 day period it's just that they simply don't start generating cashflow for another 14 days.

I have been in this share for years and to be quite frank another 14 days before cash generation is not going to make the slightest difference either to my investment or the company treasury. If they flow oil there will be a massive re-evaluation of the stock upwards and if they don't it will be the reverse.

Alan - I completely disagree. By your method if the water isolation goes badly then Angus lose money on equipment they are not using. It will cost tens of thousands. By the way they are proposing they do not pay any money for kit until they need it and all it costs them is dead-time in days.

The delay is annoying for us shareholders but means that they are only spending money when they need to. Clearly they will not be paying any people on site for a time that they have budgeted nothing will be happening as these dead days would have been known about at the beginning and built into the contracts.

I agree with Alan - that is crystal clear from the presentation. There is 14 days of nothing happening between the rig being decomissioned and the well-test equipment arriving.

That said, they will surely know if the water isolation has been successful before the rig is decommissioned so I would guess that there will be at least 6 days saved when they order the well test kit before decommissioning the rig - ie it will be 14 days not 20.

"Most efficient way is to start rigging up the well test equipment while isolating the water zone, so you move straight into well testing instead of spending up to 10 days to rig it all up."

Alan, that is clearly correct but it pre-supposes that everything is going to go well. Surely the point of having the gap is that if (god forbid) that they cannot isolate the water then they have not ordered and paid for well testing kit that they will not use?

It seems to me that Angus are being cautious with money and would rather have a 14 day delay if things go well than have paid for kit that they cannot use if things go badly. Seems like a sensible business strategy to me - hope for the best but plan for the worst.

Looks good:

http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Angus-BROCKHAM-WORK-PROGRAMME.pdf

There is an update from George Lucan on the Angus website detailing some of his plans for the company: http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Introduction-from-George-Lucan.pdf

If he follows through, it seems like he could actually be an improvement on Vonk...

Pboo is spot on. We are in the middle of the flow test for Brockham and that is where all of our attention should be on at the moment. Not the future potential of Balcombe and not the boardroom shennanigans.

Regardless of who is in charge of the company, if Brockham flows well then the share price is going to go up. It is very simple, at this point all that matters is getting the oil flowing.

radx - he would have learned his trade at Credit Suisse as his linked in shows he was there for 14 years before moving to Lehman. He was only at Lehman for one year before it went under.